1. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE Energy Technology Policy Progress and Way Forward Fridtjof Unander Energy Technology Policy Division International Energy Agency ECCP II Conference Brussels 24 October 2005

2. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE Presentation Overview A look back on past trends Looking ahead; scenarios to 2030 and 2050 Technology policy messages Future work: G8 Plan of Action

3. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE Looking back INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE

4. Energy Demand and Savings since 1973 IEA -11 Without energy savings achieved since 1973 energy demand in 1998 would have been 50% higher OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES Oil Crises & Climate Challenges Hypothetical energy use, without savings

5. IEA-11 Energy Use Impact of Energy Savings OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES Oil Crises & Climate Challenges 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 1973-1990 -1998 Average Annual % Growth Hypothetical Energy Use without Energy Savings

6. IEA-11 Energy Use Impact of Energy Savings 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 1973-1990 -1998 Average Annual % Growth Energy Savings Actual Energy Use Hypothetical Energy Use without Energy Savings Rates of energy savings have slowed significantly after 1990, leading to rapid demand growth OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

7. IEA CO 2 Emissions 1973 - 2001 Recent trends show steady increase OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

8. IEA CO 2 Emissions per GDP 1973 - 2001 Rate of decline has slowed since 1990 OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

9. IEA-11 CO 2 Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

10. IEA-11 CO 2 Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES Oil Crises & Climate Challenges 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 1973-1990 -1998 Average Annual % Growth Less carbon in fuel mix Hypothetical CO2 Emissions @ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency

11. IEA-11 CO 2 Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings Slowing energy savings rates primary reason for accelerated growth in emissions after 1990 OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES Oil Crises & Climate Challenges 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 1973-1990 -1998 Average Annual % Growth Less carbon in fuel mix Energy Savings Actual Emissions Hypothetical CO2 Emissions @ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency

12. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE Looking ahead INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE

13. Rapid Growth in CO 2 Emissions Expected Ahead CO 2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s Source: WEO 2004

14. Global CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios CO 2 emissions are 16% less in the Alternative scenario in 2030, a reduction of about 6 Gt of CO 2 Source: WEO 2004

15. Contributory Factors in CO 2 Emission Reduction, 2002-2030 Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 49% 10% 8% 12% 21% OECD 63% 1% 21% 15% Transition economies 67% 7% 17% 4% 5% Developing countries 58% World End-use efficiency gains 7% Fuel switching in end uses 5% Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation 10% Increased nuclear in power generation 20% Increased renewables in power generation

16. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE But this is not enough… INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE

17. Example of IEA Technology Analysis : Role of CO 2 Capture and Storage (CCS) $50/tCO 2 : 2050 emissions would be 25% higher in absence of CCS + 25% PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE

18. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE Long-term Technology Opportunities No silver bullet, but some features are clear: Accelerating energy efficiency improvements can make a difference in the short and long term CCS is a crucial technology in the medium term Renewables can steadily make an increasing impact and is key for the long-term sustainability Need to pursue a portfolio approach in developing policies for technology deployment and R&D INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE

19. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE Future work INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE

20. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE IEA Analysis of Long-term Technology Opportunities planned for 2006 Update of IEA World Energy Outlook Alternative Policy Scenario including analysis of new energy technologies that are expected to emerge from 2030 to 2050 New IEA publication Global Energy Technology Perspectives will address in detail how technologies may impact long-term energy markets ( 2050) INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE

21. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE IEA Roles in the G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action Dialogue partner Advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies Transform the way we use energy Energy indicators Buildings Appliances Surface transport Industry Powering a clean energy future Cleaner fossil fuels Carbon capture and storage Develop renewable energy IEA Implementing Agreements Electricity grids Promoting Networks for Research and Development Enhance the Implementing Agreements and reinforce links with developing countries and industry

22. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE Working with Others The IEA technology network National governments Major developing countries Industry Other international organisations Existing international initiatives