1. ENSEMBLES – Progress Report WP6.2 meeting, Helsinki Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, April 2007 Project Office can be contacted on ensemblesfp6@metoffice.gov.uk Web site is http://www.ensembles-eu.org

2. Page 2© Crown copyright 2007 Strategic Objectives 1.Develop an ensemble prediction system based on global and regional Earth System models, validated against observations and analyses, to produce a probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales 1.Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System 2.Exploit the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance

3. Page 3© Crown copyright 2007 Research Themes (RTs) summary System development and assembly Model engine: hindcasts, climate integrations Understanding, evaluation Impacts, Scenarios and policy

4. Page 4© Crown copyright 2007 Progress: GCM seasonal to decadal Three different seasonal to decadal forecast systems to estimate model uncertainty: Multi-model system for s2d forecasts installed at ECMWF built from EUROSIP operational activities and DEMETER experience Perturbed parameter system, built from the decadal prediction system (DePreSys) at the Met Office Stochastic physics system, from the CASBS system developed for medium-range forecasting at ECMWF Design of a set of common experiments to determine the benefits of each approach. All show promising aspects. Improved ocean data assimilation systems for s2d prediction

5. Page 5© Crown copyright 2007 Progress: GCM centennial Multi-model ACC simulations (IPCC 4AR) Conducted historical runs (1860-2000) and scenario runs (IPCC A1B, A2, B1) including Hadley Centre perturbed parameter runs, maybe other GCMs

6. Page 6© Crown copyright 2007 Progress: regional modelling GCMs DRAFT – TO BE FINALISED RCMs METO- HC MPIMETCNRMDMIETHKNMIICTPSMHIUCLMC4IGKSSMetNoCHMI METO- HC 1950- 2100 1950- 2050 MPIME T 1950- 2100 1950- 2050 FUB IPSL 1950- 2050 CNRM 1950- 2050 NERSC 1950- 2050 Defined RCM domain ERA40 hindcats (1961-2000) at 50km resolution: 11 completed, 7 already in the central archive ERA40 runs at 25km resolution underway Matrix of driving GCMs/RCMs devised 0.22º (25km) grid mesh (courtesy of Burkhardt Rockel)

7. Page 7© Crown copyright 2007 Progress (continued) Scientific analyses (e.g. cloud feedbacks, carbon, sea-ice, …) Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios (including provision of interim pdfs from PPE to RT6) Publicly available Climate Explorer http://climexp.knmi.nl/ further developed as integrated diagnostic tool Producing daily gridded datasets for Europe (on same grid as RCMs), particularly for evaluating extremes New emissions scenario developed (A1B baseline, stabilise to 450ppmv CO 2 eq) OLD (ECA daily dataset) NEW

8. Page 8© Crown copyright 2007 Progress (continued) Editable publications page available, hosted by UREADMMUREADMM Publications of ENSEMBLES results starting to appear in journals. ENSEMBLES Technical Reports series created Need to increase the publicity of the results of the project Participation at international meetings: EGU, AGU, EMS, ESSP, side- events at COP/MOP, joint meetings with WHO and OECD West Africa to be the non-European RCM domain later in project We are developing links with other projects and programmes (e.g. AMMA, ADAM, CECILIA, CIRCE, CLAVIER, DYNAMITE, Euro-Limpacs, GMES, MERSEA, QUANTIFY, WMO/WCRP mainly CLIVAR and GEWEX) Our General Assembly is growing in popularity, internally and externally. GA2007 in Prague, 12-16 November Expanding the affiliated partners (16 currently, more requested)

9. Page 9© Crown copyright 2007 Affiliated partners 1.FAO, Rene Gommes, RT5&6 2.WHO, Bettine Menne, RT5 3.University of Zurich, Nadine Salzmann, RT6 4.ESSC, John Christy, RT5 5.Dept. Geography, Nat. Univ. of Ireland, Kieran Hickey, RT5 6.NCAR, Guy Brasseur, Jerry Meehl, Linda Mearns, RT2A&2B 7.FRGCG, Michio Kawamiya, RT1&2A 8.CCSR (University of Tokyo), Masahide Kimoto, RT4 9.Nat. Inst. Earth Sciences, Toru Nozawa/Seita Emori, RT2A 10.SINTEF Energy Research, Atle Harby, RT6 11.University of Copenhagen, Eigil Kaas, RT2A 12.University of Exeter, David Stephenson, RT4 (&5?) 13.Nat. Acad. Of Scientists of Ukraine, Alexander Palonski, RT6 14.University of Newcastle, Hayley Fowler 15.OURANOS Climate Analysis group, Daniel Caya/Diane Chaumont, RT2B 16.Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics Network (CRCMD), Colin Jones

10. Page 10© Crown copyright 2007 Stream 2 simulations – GCMs s2d hindcasts 1960 onwards (previously 1991-2001) Hindcasts underway. Expected completion Aug08 Models: IFS/HOPE (ECMWF), ARPEGE/OPA (CNRM and CERFACS), HadGEM1a and DePreSys (METO-HC), ECHAM/OM1 (IfM-GEOMAR), INGV 1860-2000 historical simulations and 21 st Century scenarios using updated models and E1 (previously A1B, A2, B1) Spin-up of control runs underway 20 th C historical simulations by Aug07, may be 3 months later 21 st C scenarios expected Aug08 HadCM3CMPIMET CNRS-IPSL Models: DKCM (DMI), HadGEM2-AO and HadCM3C (METO-HC), MPIMET, EGMAM (FUB), CNRM, CNRS-IPSL

11. Page 11© Crown copyright 2007 Stream 2 simulations – RCMs ERA40 hindcasts (1961-2000) at 25km. Most in data archive, aiming for all by June 07 1950-2050/2100 (A1B and different driving GCMs) at 25km Due Aug07, may be 4 months later Models: METO-HC, SMHI, MPIMET, ICTP, CNRM, ETH, DMI, UCLM, KNMI, C4I, GKSS, CHMI/CUNI, Met.no RT3 RCM system developed, for use in RT2B by end April 07 Weighting of members of RCM ensembles, due Aug07 Recommendations and guidance on methods for construction of probabilistic regional climate scenarios by Feb08 Assessment of robustness of sds techniques using GCM and RCM output by Feb08

12. Page 12© Crown copyright 2007 Plans for 2007 Develop data archives s2d @ ECMWF building on DEMETER database RCM @ DMI building on PRUDENCE database GCM @ MPIMET (http://ensembles.wdc-climate.de) building on IPCC WCDC activities Daily gridded dataset for surface climate variables for Europe, due Aug 07 Develop impacts models (e.g. crops, water resources, energy) Develop statistical downscaling tools Improved estimates for changes in extreme events Workshops (Joint ENSEMBLES/CLIVAR workshop; 5 th Study Conference on BALTEX)

13. Page 13© Crown copyright 2007 Further develop links with CLIVAR: joint workshop with Task Force on Seasonal Prediction, June 2007 discussions with WGCM Further develop links with other WCRP projects: joint workshop with CFMIP, April 2007 GEWEX, e.g. joint involvement in BALTEX conference, June 2007 Develop links with other EC projects (e.g. AMMA joint workshop, Feb07) ENSEMBLES General Assemblies are now attracting other groups Outreach plans

14. Page 14© Crown copyright 2007 Concluding remarks – innovative work Brings together largely separate communities and integrates world- leading European research: s2d, anthropogenic climate change, global modellers, regional modellers (dynamical and statistical downscaling), scientific understanding, evaluation with observations, application modellers to deliver climate impacts, emission scenario developers, training programmes Multi-disciplinary approach allows exchange of knowledge, ideas and techniques – for example extensive work on extremes Multi-model ensemble-based probability approach will quantify uncertainty, increase understanding, influence the development of the next generation of models, leading to uncertainty reduction in the future Examples of new products: multi-model RCM system at 25km resolution probabilistic methods for use for GCMs, RCMs, impact models probabilistic predictions from s2d2c timescales to explore impacts gridded observations for Europe with estimate of uncertainty public availability of large datasets developments to the publicly available Climate Explorer on-line tools for users to downscale Ensembles simulations

15. Page 15© Crown copyright 2007 Questions