1. The Future of Software Engineering 中国科学技术大学软件学院 孟宁 2010 年 12 月

2. Contents 14.1How have we done? 14.2Technology transfer 14.3 Decision making in software engineering 14.4The professionalization of software engineering: licensing, certification and ethics

3. Chapter 14 Objectives ♦The Wasserman principles and how we have done ♦Technology transfer ♦How researchers provide evidence for technology adoption ♦Decision making in software engineering ♦Next step in research and practice

4. 14.1 How Have We Done? ♦Use complex languages ♦Use patterns and abstractions ♦Apply formal methods ♦Build a vast array of tools

5. 14.1 How Have We Done? Challenges Ahead ♦Provide great accuracy in the large: we can tell –when a space vehicle will reach Mars –when a chemical reaction will reach a critical stage ♦Do not have accuracy in small: we cannot tell –precisely when a software product will fail again –exactly how a user will exercise system’s function

6. 14.1 How Have We Done? Wasserman’s Steps to Maturity ♦Abstraction ♦Analysis and design notations ♦User interface prototyping ♦Software architecture ♦Software process ♦Reuse ♦Measurement ♦Tools and integrated environments

7. 14.1 How Have We Done? What Now? ♦Should consider how well we move the new software engineering ideas into practice ♦Must consider how well our research and practice support decision making about processes, resources, and products

8. 14.2 Technology Transfer ♦Producers: create and use new technologies ♦Consumers: adopt and use new technologies in new products and services

9. 14.2 Technology Transfer How We Make Technology Transfer Decision Now ♦In the 1960s and 1970s, it took an average of 7.5 years for new technology to become widely available ♦Because of time-to-market pressure, new technologies must prove themselves quickly

10. 14.2 Technology Transfer Adopter Types ♦Innovators ♦Early adopters ♦Early majority ♦Late majority ♦Laggards

11. 14.2 Technology Transfer Evidence Supporting Technology Decisions ♦Researchers: reproducible validation methods –theoretical proof, static analysis, and simulation ♦Practitioners: methods relevant to their environment –case studies, field studies, and replicated controlled experiments

12. 14.2 Technology Transfer Types of Evidence and Their Audiences What will you do for your new technology ？

13. 14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering ♦Two points of view of decision-making –Descriptive 描述性的 : provides evidence about how decisions are actually made –Prescriptive 说明性的 : provides frameworks and methods to help decision-makers

14. 14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Roots of Decision Science

15. 14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Elements that Affect How We Make Decision

16. 14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Issues in Group Decision-Making

17. 14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Types of Decision ♦Strategic decision: affects the well being and nature of the organization ♦Tactical decision: affects pricing, employee assignment, customer interaction, or operations ♦Routine decision: repetitive in nature, local in scope, and guided by organizational rules or policies

18. 14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering How We Really Decide ♦Bias Caused by Decision Context 背景偏见 ♦stereotype threat 刻板印象威胁 ♦status quo bias 现状偏见 ♦Individuals exhibit a marked preference for case- specific,or singular information 个体对特定情况和 单一信息由明显偏好 ♦ 一个因素出现的越久远，回忆者降低其重要性的 倾向就越高 ♦Anchoring-and-adjustment 锚定和调整 ♦ 不愿表现的消极

19. 14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Example Used in Assessing Group Effects ConditionError rate Subject is alone1% With one person who says A3% With two people who say A13% With three people who say A33% With six who say A and one who say B6%

20. 14.4 The Professionalization of Software Engineering: Licensing, Certification and Ethics ♦Improve software engineering education ♦Licensing or certification to improve process and product

21. 谢谢大家！ References 软件工程 - 理论与实践（第四版 影印版） Software Engineering: Theory and Practice (Fourth Edition),Shari Lawrence Pfleeger,Joanne M. Atlee, 高等教育出版社 软件工程 - 理论与实践（第四版） Software Engineering: Theory and Practice (Fourth Edition),Shari Lawrence Pfleeger,Joanne M. Atlee, 杨卫 东译, 人民邮电出版社 软件工程 — 实践者的研究方法（ Software Engineering-A Practitioner’s Approach ） ; ( 美 ) Roger S. Pressman 著； 机械工业出版社 ISBN ： 7-111- 07282-0 http://code.google.com/p/advancedsoftwareengineering/