1. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 1 “If there is magic in this planet, it is contained in water... ” – Loren Eiseley

2. The State of HMT, 2008 Timothy Schneider HMT Project Manager http://hmt.noaa.gov/ Thanks to: Rob Hartman & Terri Moravitz

3. Objectives & Outcomes #1Formulating a response to the Management Action Plan #2To provide guidance for field operations in HMT-West during the 2008-2009 (and 2009-2010) season, that factors-in the outcomes from the HMT R2O workshop (held prior to the Advisory Panel meeting on May 20-21) #3To obtain a refreshed perspective on where HMT is and where it is going #4A report documenting the proceedings of the meeting and recommendations for the future conduct of HMT R2O Workshop = “What” Advisory Panel Meeting = “How”

4. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 4 Agenda Day 1; Session 1 Laying the Foundation 08:00 amWelcome & Introductions; Hartman & Schneider 08:15 amThe State of HMT; Schneider Recommendations from last year; review Management Action Plan; what’s new?; fiscal status; long-range plans 10:15 amBreak 10:30 amReport & Discussion from R2O Workshop; Hartman, Schneider & Others 11:00 amAnnouncement & Introduction to EFREP; Anderson & Schneider 11:30 amReview of HMT-West 2007-2008; Kingsmill 12:00 pmLunch Break (on your own)

5. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 5 Agenda Day 1; Session 2 HMT-West Planning Implementing results from R2O workshop; modifications to field work in FY09 & FY10. Prepare slides and handouts (if you like) of your work to facilitate discussion: Note: No more than 1 slide/person (though it would be good to have “backup slides” close to hand) 01:30 pmDiscussion 03:30 pmBreak 03:45 pmDiscussion, cont’d 04:30 pmAdjourn for the day

6. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 6 Agenda Day 2; Session 3 Execution Planning & Recommendations Map activities onto the 5 major activity areas per HMT Management Action Plan (including milestones, deliverables, responsible parties, etc.). Draft recommendations for meeting report. 08:00Recap & Objectives for the Day 08:15Discussion – mapping future activities onto the 5 major activity areas i.QPE ii.QPF iii.Snow Information iv.Hydrologic Applications v.Decision Support Tools 10:15Break 10:30Resume Discussion – Draft recommendations 11:45 Wrap up & Actions 12:00 Adjourn Meeting

7. River and Stream Forecasts (NWS) –Flash Floods –Streamflow –Water Supply Great Lakes (OAR) –Water Levels –Hazardous Spill Response Major Bays and Ports (NOS) –Water Levels –Currents Numerical Weather Prediction (NWS, OAR) –Precipitation –Land Surface Conditions Research and Development (OAR, NWS, NOS, NESDIS) –Observations and Models –Coupled Modeling Systems NWS Organic Act: “…forecasting of weather, the issue of storm warnings, display of weather and flood signals for the benefit of agriculture, commerce, and navigation, the gauging and reporting of rivers…” NOAA Inland Flood Forecasting and Warning Act: “…improve the capability to accurately forecast inland flooding, and conduct research, outreach, and education activities regarding the dangers and risks associated with inland flooding…” NOAA Forecasts Water

8. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 8 Water Resource Driver Societal Need: Reservoir operators and water managers need to balance demands for flood control and water supply They can achieve this through forecast-based operational techniques are being developed by reservoir operators Stu Townsley: –“NOAA products are essential to Corps flood risk reduction mission” –“The Corps supports forecast product enhancement” Water Management Section, Sacramento District, US Army Corps of Engineers

9. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 9 NOAA HMT’s Requirement To produce accurate 0-120 hour forecasts of extreme precipitation (NWS) to improve hydrologic forecasts and enable forecast- based water resource management NOAA must improve it’s forecasts of extreme precipitation events: –Analysis of QPF data from HMT ’06 showed that only 2 out of 16 extreme events were predicted (>5” rainfall in 24 hours)

10. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 10 NOAA Guidance Supporting HMT 2011-2015 AGM: “Advanced notice of severe weather or water events…is a major driver of NOAA”s forecast and warnings missions.” “America’s water managers require dramatically more predictive information than currently provided.” Regional Collaboration: One of the four cross-cutting priority areas of NOAA’s Regional Collaboration is Integrated Water Resource Services NOAA Transition: The NOAA transition plan identifies water resources as a key issue to carry through a change in leadership 20-Year Research Vision: “With improved weather information… NOAA can… increase economic and human benefits, particularly through increasing the forecast accuracy of precipitation and water availability.” Research in NOAA (2008-2012): “NOAA will improve winter storm observations… and develop improved precipitation measurements, precipitation type, wind observations, to provide effective forecasts and warnings.” “…there is an increasing demand for an expanded suite of water resource predictions to support flood mitigation and manage water availability…” NWS-OAR Summit (Aug., 2006): Identifies generating support for Testbeds as one of it’s four goals NWS Hydrology STIP: Identifies Hydrometeorological Testbeds to address key R&D needs

11. USWRP Recommended: “ As NOAA considers the future of its integrated regional, surface, and tropospheric observing systems, it faces a key question addressed by this workshop—how to optimize the development and deployment of new measurement systems so as to strengthen the mesoscale observation and prediction capabilities over the United States. Testbeds can point the way toward filling this need, and, thus, they became a major focus of the workshop.” (From: Dabberdt et. al. 2005 “ MULTIFUNCTIONAL MESOSCALE OBSERVING NETWORKS ” Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. pp. 961--982) NRC Recommended: The NRC report “NOAA’s Role in Space-Based Global Precipitation Estimation and Application” recommends the NOAA HMT: “There will be a symbiotic relationship between GPM and the Hydrometeorological Testbed. The Hydrometeorological Testbed will use GPM data as an additional input for experimentation and demonstration, and GPM will obtain validation elements from the Hydrometeorological Testbed.” AMS Call to Action: A Draft AMS Policy Statement on Water Resources in the 21st Century: “The provision of adequate freshwater resources for humans and ecosystems will be one of the most critical and potentially contentious issues facing society and governments at all levels during the 21st century. Water is fundamental to our lives … Water resource managers face daunting challenges with population growth and migration, land use changes, and pollution locally, nationally, and globally — problems likely to be exacerbated over the next several decades by climate change. In light of this developing water crisis, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) issues this statement as a call to action.” External Guidance

12. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 12 Primary Conclusions & Recommendations from the 2007 Meeting 1.HMT-West is still in an exploratory phase: we are still learning how to do research to operations and have not generated a data set sufficient to inform long-term decisions.  Recommendation: Continue HMT-West operations at a sustained level for several years beyond FY09; i.e. at levels comparable to FY08-FY09.

13. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 13 Primary Conclusions & Recommendations from the 2007 Meeting 2.Planning for the FY08 field season is on track. A number of refinements were discussed and will be acted upon.  Recommendations: Phase-3 of the HMT mesonet will focus on Placer County “group B” sites (per CN-RFC’s plan) but other sites will be surveyed. Consideration should be given towards placing one of the gap-filling radars (NSSL) in the lee of the Sierras.

14. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 14 Primary Conclusions & Recommendations from the 2007 Meeting 3.A proposal to reconfigure the HMT advisory structure with a smaller nationally focused advisory panel and newly formed regional implementation teams met with general agreement. However, more detail indicating the scope of their respective responsibilities, how they interact, etc., is needed before a final plan can be considered.  Recommendation: Proper consideration will be given to the plan when the aforementioned issues have been articulated and reviewed in an HMT Charter.

15. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 15 Primary Conclusions & Recommendations from the 2007 Meeting 4.A better job needs to be done to communicate the objectives of HMT: They are to improve QPE, QPF and hydrologic monitoring and forecasts, and to develop decision support tools that integrate new science (knowledge) with new models and observational data streams. Whereas the immediate beneficiary of HMT are NOAA’s frontline operational units (i.e. WFOs, RFCs and national centers), careful consideration and attention should be given to external stakeholders such as local, state and other federal entities.  Recommendation: Carefully identify and articulate HMT’s objectives and customers in the Charter.

16. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 16 Primary Conclusions & Recommendations from the 2007 Meeting 5.Recommendation: Future Advisory Panel meetings will be held in April to better respond to the PPBES process, increase prep-time for future field seasons and improve attendance.

17. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 17 Response to 2007 Recommendations HMT Management Council implemented the HMT Management Action Plan HMT Management Action plan Memo 9_August_2007.pdf HMT-West has been extended by 1-year (through FY10) Mesonet was implemented; “executive decision” sent radar to Debris Flow Project in southern CA Charter not completed Advisory Panel meeting held in May 2008

18. Building Partnerships  A critical element: engaging local, state and federal stakeholders…  Changes to Advisory Panel Pending:  Smaller panel with National focus  Standup “Regional Implentation Teams” (regional focus; give voice to non-NOAA partners)

19. Towards an HMT Charter…  A critical element: engaging local, state and federal stakeholders…  Changes to Advisory Panel Pending:  Smaller panel with National focus  Standup “Regional Implentation Teams” (regional focus; give voice to non-NOAA partners)

20. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 20 Finalized by the end of June HMT needs an identity: aka a logo We need to define our mission and vision statements What we do = 5 Major activity areas How we execute HMT… Towards an HMT Charter…

21. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 21 The Process Build consensus in Advisory Panel Send recommendations to Management Council Monthly calls Annual meetings Workshops Assessment: Spring Preparation: Summer-Fall Deploy: Fall Daily coordination calls Crew deploys as needed (IOPs; cost savings) Automated instruments; real- time displays Assessment: Spring Preparation: Summer-Fall Deploy: Fall Daily coordination calls Crew deploys as needed (IOPs; cost savings) Automated instruments; real- time displays PlanningExecution

22. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 22 Major Activity Areas 1.Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) 2.Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) 3.Snow Information 4.Hydrologic Applications & Surface Processes 5.Decision Support Tools HMT: A National Testbed Strategy with Regional Implementation Verification Enhancing & Accelerating Research to Operations Building partnerships

23. Level of effort / activity Field Work Analysis American River Key Eastern U.S. Watershed Other Key U.S. Watershed Fiscal Year HMT-West HMT-West Legacy HMT-East HMT-East Legacy HMT-”Next” Regions of Focus NOAA Hydrology Program (Water Resources Data Assimilation) NOAA Science and Technology Infusion Program (Hydrometeorology Testbed) 98990001020304050607080910111213 West Coast/Russian River CaljetPacjet Proof of concept HMT Prototype ^^ Hydrometeorology Testbed Timeline

24. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 24 HMT Publications The publications have appeared in… Monthly Weather Review (12) Journal of Hydrometeorology (6) Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology (3) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2) Geophysical Research Letters (1) Journal of Climate (1) Water Management (1) Weather and Forecasting (1) Progress in Oceanography (1) Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (1) Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (1) Lead authors* represent… ESRL Physical Sciences Division ESRL Global Systems Division NSSL NCAR/Societal Impacts Program USGS Naval Postgraduate School *Contributing authors represent an additional 10 or more institutions Since 2000, a total of 30 papers have been published in the formal literature (“2007 & 2008 may not be up to date”)

25. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 25 The Budget Picture FY08 (4 NOAA elements): –NOAA Program Funds: $2.2M –Other NOAA: $2.2M –Reimbursable: $0.2M FY09 Similar FY10 Requested Increases Moving Forward (HYD+STI) Preparing for FY11 –Coordinating with LFW –Satellite Coordination: NDE; GPM; SATB –Services Delivery Proving Ground Briefed Dr. Rick Spinrad, AA for NOAA Research

26. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 26 What’s New? Expanding Hydrological Efforts Multisensor Integrated QPE - Q2 COSMIC Studies: moisture profiles over the ocean Growing connections with the Satellite Community –GPM (NOAA & NASA) –NDE (NESDIS) Barrier Jet Studies Verification Studies Interactions with THORPEX –TIGGE –Coordinated WSR Flights HMT/IWRS Studies –Soil moisture network in AZ, and in the upper CO basin HMT Micro Projects –Radar/QPE studies in CO and AZ Discussions with NCEP Lt. Governor Garamendi’s H2O 2.0 Initiative (w/Roger Bales)

27. May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 27 What’s Next? Revamped HMT web pages HMT-East - FY10 –Planning Workshop: ~late summer –Longer deployments –Allocating resources –QPF is, perhaps, more challengingR2O workshop & Annual Advisory Panel Meeting Expanding Hydrological Efforts Implementing the Management Action Plan –Revising the Advisory Structure –Standing up Major Activity Area Teams –Crafting Plans (June) HMT-West Legacy –R2O workshop –EFREP