1. “Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply in South Africa” “Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply in South Africa” Mark Howells Energy Research Institute

2. Introduction The ERI – aims and direction GHG Inventories – the starting point Baselines – what the players see Integrated Energy Modelling – the big pic. Mitigation – how to reduce the emissions Industrial projects – Major players in SA Towards CDM in SA

3. The Energy Research Institute ~ Aims and Direction ~ Education Capacity building Promote policy discussion – NOT write it Useful research, – Government – Industry

4. The Energy Research Institute ~ GHG work ~ Inventories Inventories Baselines Baselines Mitigation Mitigation Country studies, UNFCC, IPCC, MSc’s & PhD’s Country studies, UNFCC, IPCC, MSc’s & PhD’s IEP IEP Case studies Case studies Information Information and CDM applications and CDM applications The Energy Research Institute ~ GHG work ~

5. Greenhouse Gas Inventories Snapshot Complete energy sector ’83-’93 Inventory and 1990 & 94 for UNFCCC Problems: – Consumption data – IPCC data – NEEDS Urgent attention $20 Billion dollars.

6. Integrated Energy Modelling ~ The big picture ~ Energy use & GHG Energy use & GHG Need the big picture Need the big picture National economy for 1995-2025 National economy for 1995-2025 No IEP = problems! No IEP = problems! LEAP 2000:China etc. LEAP 2000:China etc. MARKAL: IEA MARKAL: IEA ERI is using both … ERI is using both … What to do, how, where & when … What to do, how, where & when …

7. Baselines for the Energy Sector: BUSINESS AS USUAL Modelled for 1995- 2020 Stakeholder input Business as usual CDM funds Mitigation options Need Integrated Energy Planning tools

8. Mitigating GHG emissions from the energy supply sector… Electricity Electricity Liquid Fuels Liquid Fuels Coal Coal Reducing demand Reducing demand

9. Mitigation Options ~ Electricity ~ Clean Coal Clean Coal Renewables: Renewables: Wind and Solar Wind and Solar Imported hydro Imported hydro Gas Gas Nuclear Nuclear PBMR PBMR Conventional Conventional

10. South African Power Generation SA will require new generation capacity by about 2008 (assuming present modest increase in demand) SA now generates the world’s cheapest electricity The SA economy is energy intensive and depends on cheap energy (e.g. aluminium smelting)

11. South Africa Electricity Capacity  Operating Capacity, MWe (1999):  Total: 43,142 (100%)  Coal: 38,287 (88.7%)  Nuclear: 1840 (4.3%)  Storage: 1580 (3.7%)  Hydro: 668 (1.5%)  Gas: 662 (1.5%)  Bagasse: 105 (0.2%)

12. Coal Generation Advantages: – Reliable, with proven technology – Large reserves of coal in the world – Competive in price – Employment Disadvantages: – Carbon dioxide emissions – Coal is expensive to transport – Quite high capital costs – High loss of life from mining accidents

13. Future of Coal Generation Supercritical: already happening IGCC: likely but limited Fluidised Bed: limited Combined Heat and Power (CHP): uncertain under deregulation Currently most economic plan

14. Generation from Gas Advantages – High thermal efficiency (CCGT) – Low capital costs – Quick construction time – Fairly clean Disadvantages – Uncertainty about gas prices in future – Gas has other uses (e.g. production of liquid fuels) – Greenhouse emissions – Loss of currency

15. Future of Gas Generation Seems likely to increase relative to other energy sources but there is much uncertainty over future gas prices

16. SA Future Generation: Gas Gasfields in SA & neighbours are small – Mossgas: 17 bcm (663 PJ) – CBM, Waterberg: 90 bcm (3393 PJ) – Kudu, Namibia: 85-250 bcm (3315-9750 PJ) – Pande, Mozambique: 40-80 bcm (1560-3120 PJ) – (SA’s total energy demand in 1995: 4426 PJ) Piping gas from Kudu to Cape Town would be expensive Gas from Congo? Better things to do with gas (feedstock for chemical & liquid fuel production, heating, steelworks etc) Limited potential for large scale electricity generation

17. Nuclear Power Generation Advantages – Reliable: safety record in the West – no greenhouse emissions in operation – Fuel can be cheaply transported (very small in mass) – Competive total costs Disadvantages – High capital costs – Bad public perceptions (irrational fears about safety, radiation, weapons and waste) – Therefore political problems

18. Future of Nuclear Generation Move to simpler designs with passive safety, offering lower capital costs, quicker construction and easier licensing. Move to simpler designs with passive safety, offering lower capital costs, quicker construction and easier licensing. Perhaps move to smaller units, offering more speed and flexibility in planning capacity. Perhaps move to smaller units, offering more speed and flexibility in planning capacity. Final waste disposal sites must be approved Final waste disposal sites must be approved In the long term: breeder reactors, thorium fuel In the long term: breeder reactors, thorium fuel

19. Hydroelectricity Advantages – Reliable, with proven technology – Economically competitive – Quite clean Disadvantages – Dams are expensive, with long construction times – Environmental problems (silting, slaination, upsetting natural flows, displacing people, methane from rotting vegetation) – Difficult to find and approve new sites

20. Future of Hydroelectricity It will be increasingly difficult to find and approve new sites in most of the world But there is enormous potential in central Africa

21. Imported Hydroelectricity Additional Hydro Potential in Central Africa – Zambezi: 6000 MWe – Inga Falls (Congo): 50,000 – 100,000 MWe – Other: 1200 Mwe Inga could be run of river (no dam) Huge potential but political problems and questions of security of supply

22. Wind and Solar Power Advantages – Clean – No greenhouse emissions – Free energy Disadvantages – Expensive electricity – Dilute, intermittent, unpredictable energy – Large land area required – Only certain sites are suitable – Environmental problems for wind (eyesore, kills birds)

23. Future Wind & Solar Generation Unlikely to provide more than a small fraction of total electricity Growth of wind & solar generation will depend on government policy and subsidies

24. SA Future Generation: Wind Suitable wind conditions near the coast Eskom and perhaps Darling Wind Farm will be installing wind turbines High cost Large land use Intermittent supply Good for supply to small, remote communities But unlikely to supply more than a small fraction of SA’s electricity demand

25. SA Future Generation: Solar Very good solar conditions in Northern Cape (6 kWh / m 2 / 24 hours) Could be solar thermal or photovoltaic High costs Intermittent energy, requiring storage Large land usage Good for supply to small, remote communities But unlikely to supply more than a small fraction of SA’s electricity demand

26. SA Energy Reserves (without Breeder Reactors) (excluding renewable energy)

27. SA Reserves (with breeder reactors) (excluding renewable energy)

28. Mitigation options: Oil Import finished product Shift coal-oil to gas- oil Improve storage of crude

29. Mitigation options: Coal More efficient mining Combustion of methane Extraction of methane Prevention of spontaneous combustion

30. Mitigation options: Reducing energy demand Energy Efficiency in industry – Can create infrastructure – Best short term option – Industry understands market mechanisms

31. Current Industrial Projects Applications for CDM Link between GHG’s and energy management Extension of energy efficiency work

32. Towards an ‘enabling environment’ w.r.t. energy management Case studies Industry buy-in Linkages with national energy efficiency programs Assessment of industrial potential Industrial Energy Efficiency Association

33. In conclusion: Some warnings CDM may be used to subsidise Annex 1 economies Trade implications SA could be left behind with respect to CDM funds Much current data is very questionable Fuel costs, such as gas prices must be viewed with caution.