1. Building on the Building Blocks: Possibilities and Pitfalls on the Road to Durban Andrew Light Director, International Climate Policy, Center for American Progress & Associate Director, Institute for Philosophy and Public Policy, George Mason University 1

2. Building on the Building Blocks 1.Climate Diplomacy to Cancun 2.Paths to Governance? Kyoto vs. Copenhagen 3.An Agenda for Durban 2

3. 1. Climate Diplomacy to Cancun 3

4. Climate Diplomacy to Cancun The first Climate Treaty: UNFCCC, 1992/1994. 194 parties – consensus model. - “Common But Differentiated Responsibilities” (CBDR) Kyoto Protocol, 1998/2004. - Annex 1 (5.2% below 1990 by 2012) vs. Non-Annex 1. July 1997, US opts out. Byrd- Hagel Resolution on KP, 95-0. Bali Action Plan, 2007 - NAMAs. Emission reductions from emerging emitters in exchange for finance and technology. - Creation of AWG-LCA. 4

5. Climate Diplomacy to Cancun Dec. 2009: The Copenhagen Accord. - First part of intended “two step” proposal by Danes. - Aspiration to limit temperature increase to 2C. - $30B fast start climate financing, 2010-2012; $100B annual fund by 2020. - Outline of an agreement on Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV). - Requirement that parties associated with accord submit emission reduction plans by end of January 2010. 5

6. The Cancun Agreements Dec. 2010: Against all expectation achieve political consensus on building blocks from Copenhagen Accord expanding agreements on mitigation, adaptation, MRV, technology, forestry, finance. - Creation of “Green Climate Fund.” Specification on transitional committee. - Agreement on MRV for non- supported developing country actions: “International Consultation and Analysis.” - Creation of “Climate Technology Center” -- hub and spoke model. - Showdown with Bolivia challenges consensus process – extended to Mexico-PNG proposal on ¾ voting rule. 6

7. 2.Paths to Governance?: Kyoto vs. “Copenhagen” 7

8. 88 Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto Path“Copenhagen Path” - Build out from existing- Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA.

9. 99 Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto Path“Copenhagen Path” - Build out from existing- Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA. - Focus on legally binding- Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition).

10. 10 Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto Path“Copenhagen Path” - Build out from existing- Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA. - Focus on legally binding- Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition). - Treaty obligations drive- National interests drive mitigation goals. goals (savings, energy security, etc.).

11. Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto Path“Copenhagen Path” - Build out from existing- Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA. - Focus on legally binding- Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition). - Treaty obligations drive- National interests drive mitigation goals. goals (savings, energy security, etc.). - Enforcement through market- Enforcement through exclusion. “shame and blame.” 11

12. Deadlock from Bonn intersessional negotiations over past two weeks: Focus on second commitment period for Kyoto or focus on building out Cancun building blocks. 12

13. Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto PathCopenhagen Path - Build out from existing- Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA. - Focus on legally binding- Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition). - Treaty obligations drive- National interests drive mitigation goals. goals (savings, energy security, etc.). - Enforcement through market- Enforcement through exclusion. “shame and blame.” - Covers ~35% of emissions.*- Covers ~80% emissions. 13

14. 3. An Agenda for Durban 14

15. 15

16. 16

17. Problem: While emission commitments go to 2020, finance commitments only go to 2012, resuming in 2020. 17

18. Minimum Gap (billions) Fast Start Funding Copenhagen Pledge Internationa l Offsets Maintain “Fast Start” level (includes inflation) Assume doubling in real terms (includes emissions permit auction revenues) Assumes delay of non-EU carbon markets Traditional Climate Foreign Aid Ramp-up urgently needed Midpoint Increase Climate Foreign Aid “Ramp-up” Period Additional $60 billion over three years

19. No traction without finance – more important up to 2020 traction than new emission pledges. 19

20. 20 No traction without finance – more important up to 2020 traction than new emission pledges. But this won’t happen unless South Africa sets an aggressive agenda from the COP presidency.

21. 21 No traction without finance – more important up to 2020 traction than new emission pledges. But this won’t happen unless South Africa sets an aggressive agenda from the COP presidency. Opportunity: US-EU dispute over extension of ETS to air travel in January 2012. Next step: July 5th hearing in Luxembourg in suit by three US air carriers against EU.

22. 22

23. 23

24. 24

25. 25

26. 26

27. 27