2. Liquid Biofuels for the Land Transport Sector in Asia: Implications for the Global Environment Jerome Weingart * May 24, 2006 * ADB consultant

3. Very recent flood of major studies on renewable energy and biofuels

4. The future (?): 6-fold GHG emissions growth from Asia road transport * Reference case (from IEA/SMP model)

5. Objectives of the biofuels study Compare life-cycle GHG emissions from various biodiesel and bioethanol fuels Review bioethanol and biodiesel fuel production in Asia Assess potential of low-GHG biofuels to displace GHG emissions for road transport Identify policy, TA, and other measures to stimulate biofuels production and use

6. Liquid biofuels for transport Ethanol, produced from sugar cane, corn, sugar beets, wheat, and potentially from cellulosic feedstocks (gasoline additive and replacement) Biodiesel, made from vegetable oils from soy, rape, palm, coconut, Jatropha, and other oil seed crops (petro-diesel additive and replacement)

7. Some desirable characteristics of liquid biofuels for transport Biodiesel compatible with petrodiesel in existing and new diesel light duty vehicles Bioethanol can be used in millions of existing flexible fuel vehicles (FFV) up to 85% ethanol / 15% gasoline (E85), and in commercial autos designed for 100% ethanol use (Brazil) Both fuels “fit” the existing road transport, fuel, and vehicle infrastructures

8. Why are we interested in biofuels for the Asian road transport sector? Potentially competitive with petrofuels Indigenous, can offset imported petroleum Significant reduction in tailpipe emissions Potential for major reduction (80 – 95%) in net unit life-cycle GHG emissions compared with petrofuels, and Potential for large-scale sustainable production

9. What is Driving Growth in Biofuels Production? Air quality demands for cleaner fuels Oil supply uncertainties / fuel security Very high and volatile oil prices Biofuels increasingly competitive Policy incentives and mandates for biofuels Global warming (a minor driver)

10. Crude oil, ethanol, and biodiesel global production in 2002 FuelProduction (billion liters/year) Crude oil4,080 Motor spirit (2004) 1,400 Ethanol24 Biodiesel1.5

11. Benefits: Biofuels Production and Use Environmental impacts –GHG emission displacement –Improved air quality –Geographic diversity of supply Economic benefits –Income generation –Rural income expansion and diversification –Displacement of imported fossil fuels –Adds diversity and risk reduction to energy portfolio Security benefits

12. Constraints: Biofuels Production and Use Potential competition for food production Availability of suitable land

13. Constraints: Biofuels Production and Use Environmental impacts (land conversion) –Tropical forest replacement by monocrops / deforestation –Diminished ecological diversity and resilience –Nutrient leaching –Pollution from chemicals –Loss of watersheds –Soil erosion, mud slides, and forest fires Global environmental impacts: nitrogen oxides from agriculture

14. Ethanol Production in 2005 (billion liters per year)

15. Biofuels from field to wheels: life-cycle analysis and GHG emissions

16. What is life-cycle analysis? Comprehensive methodology to identify and quantify inputs, outputs, and impacts of a production process Outputs include total GHGs produced and net energy (energy per liter of biofuel minus petroleum energy input) LCAs needed for feedstock / biofuels options in Asia

17. Life-cycle stages for fuels

18. GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels Field-to-wheel CO 2 -equivalent GHG emissions from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel Source: L. Fulton (2004), IEA (currently UNEP)

20. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Asia Vehicle Transport Sector Scenarios for market penetration of low-GHG biofuels

21. What is a scenario? A scenario is like a screen play for the future. A scenario is NOT a prediction; it asks “what if”, using rules that reflect real world market dynamics and constraints

22. What is a market penetration scenario? Model of a possible future Analytic – logistic penetration model for increasing market share of an “intruder” into an “incumbent” market (“S”-shaped curve) Permits specification of key parameters to assess impacts of alternative penetration rates and ultimate market fraction for new options Has been widely validated

23. Real-world market penetration dynamics Market penetration has distinct phases –Pioneering: Conceptual through research and development –Preparing to go to market: prototype production –Market feedback: Market testing and evaluation –Major commercial launch: Launching of commercial options, with wide-spread marketing and support –Robust expansion of successful launches through larger facilities and decreased production costs (learning and experience curve effects)

24. Market penetration has distinct phases –“Takeoff”, with increasingly rapid penetration of the total market of the incumbent (e.g. petrodiesel fuels) –“Market dynamism”, with substantial and rapidly growing market share –“Maturation” Gradual slowdown in rate of penetration as market potential (e.g., 50% of total Asia LDV petrodiesel market) is reached. The rate of penetration from 1% to 99% of the potential market varies widely among technologies Real-world market penetration dynamics

25. Stages of market penetration

26. IEA ethanol share of gasoline

27. International Energy Agency review of biofuels prospects and issues Global technical potential for biofuels is large, perhaps 50% of transport fuels by 2050 Ethanol from sugar cane in developing countries could provide 10% of global transport fuel needs by 2020, at relatively low cost

28. GHG annual emissions from diesel and gasoline transport fuels in Asia * Reference case (IEA/SMP)

29. Assumptions behind two biofuels scenarios (S1 and S2) ParameterValue / assumptionDegree of realism Biofuels market penetration fraction f(t) 10% to 90% penetration in a 50 year period, following a logistic or “S-shaped” penetration path. Plausible if Asian experience can match the optimistic market projections made by IEA for global biofuels penetration. Market fraction for biofuels S-1: 100% of petrofuels transport market S-2: 50% S1: Barely plausible S2: Reasonably plausible Biofuels exbodied GHGs S-1: 90% reduction in life- cycle GHG emissions relative to petrofuels S-2: 75% reduction Highly optimistic: Assumes best of current practice (Brazil sugarcane to ethanol) and equivalent practices with second generation biofuels can be emulated and expanded to meet Asia road transport fuel needs

30. Asia road transport GHG emissions with and without accelerated biofuels penetration S2 Business as usual GHG emissions Biofuels and reduced GHG emissions

31. Asia road transport GHG emissions with and without extreme biofuels penetration S1 Business as usual GHG emissions High biofuels penetration GHG emissions

32. How to maximize biofuels impacts Reduce growth in transport fuel demand Increased end use efficiency is much less expensive than expanding supply This is the “golden rule” for renewables

33. Some key questions: large-scale biofuels production Land availability for various feedstock / fuel production options & production levels Associated requirements for water, nutrients, labor, capital, etc. Specific environmental impacts at various levels of biofuels production Requirements for biofuels enabling environment (policies, incentives, etc.)

34. Potential next steps Life-cycle analysis / assessment for Asia for bio-ethanol and biodiesel options Collaboration among national biofuels working groups using compatible LCA methodologies Establishment of biofuels collaborative for collaboration, coordination, technical assistance, and knowledge management

35. For more information: Jerome Weingart jmweingart@aol.com Web site: www.adb.orgwww.adb.org

36. Thank you!

40. Life-cycle stages for fuels

41. IEA ethanol share of gasoline