1. A Problematic Future for Northern Australia? A presentation to the June 2008 Bureau of Transport, Infrastructure and Regional Economics Regional Perspectives Conference. By Rolf Gerritsen, Research Leader, Central Australia, Charles Darwin University

2. IntroductionIntroduction I propose a paradox; Northern Australia will have relatively high economic growth rates over the coming decades but will be doing less well – in socio-economic as well as environmental terms – than desirable. (NB I will not deal with environmental challenges here, though they will be increasingly severe in the future) Why? Essentially poorly sustainable growth rather than economic and social development. IntroductionIntroduction I propose a paradox; Northern Australia will have relatively high economic growth rates over the coming decades but will be doing less well – in socio-economic as well as environmental terms – than desirable. (NB I will not deal with environmental challenges here, though they will be increasingly severe in the future) Why? Essentially poorly sustainable growth rather than economic and social development.

3. Thesis: Assuming present policy settings, Northern Australia will fall further behind settled Australia over the next decades. We will also see two Northern Australias – one comprising relatively wealthy expatriates and one comprising mostly permanently resident, impoverished, Aboriginal people Why is the prognosis for northern and central Australia one of increasing difficulties?Thesis: Assuming present policy settings, Northern Australia will fall further behind settled Australia over the next decades. We will also see two Northern Australias – one comprising relatively wealthy expatriates and one comprising mostly permanently resident, impoverished, Aboriginal people Why is the prognosis for northern and central Australia one of increasing difficulties?

4. Several – interrelated (NB) - sets of demographic, social and economic reasons 1. Demographic changes 2. Settlement patterns Disabling urban growth Economic decline of inland service centres and mining towns Rise of Aboriginal settlements Several – interrelated (NB) - sets of demographic, social and economic reasons 1. Demographic changes 2. Settlement patterns Disabling urban growth Economic decline of inland service centres and mining towns Rise of Aboriginal settlements

5. 3. Economy: a permanently marginalized economy unable to deal with endemic problems Industry sector stasis An encapsulated export sector An inefficient labour market Welfare dependence reducing the local market Poor bases of and structures for innovation 3. Economy: a permanently marginalized economy unable to deal with endemic problems Industry sector stasis An encapsulated export sector An inefficient labour market Welfare dependence reducing the local market Poor bases of and structures for innovation

6. 4. Socio-political incapacity Public sector inefficiency and incapacity Impoverishment and social problems on Aboriginal settlements (urban drift response?) Welfare dependence reducing the local market Lack of innovation 4. Socio-political incapacity Public sector inefficiency and incapacity Impoverishment and social problems on Aboriginal settlements (urban drift response?) Welfare dependence reducing the local market Lack of innovation

7. People designing future development scenarios need to accurately analyse present trends in order to alter them for more beneficial outcomes. Need to: Re-cast economic policy and the urban bias of public sector services and investment Re-think Aboriginal policy Prepare for climate change People designing future development scenarios need to accurately analyse present trends in order to alter them for more beneficial outcomes. Need to: Re-cast economic policy and the urban bias of public sector services and investment Re-think Aboriginal policy Prepare for climate change