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Without Water Prof. Mike Young Research Chair, Water Economics & Management School of Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of Adelaide Wednesday.

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Presentation on theme: "Without Water Prof. Mike Young Research Chair, Water Economics & Management School of Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of Adelaide Wednesday."— Presentation transcript:

1 Without Water Prof. Mike Young Research Chair, Water Economics & Management School of Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of Adelaide Wednesday 2nd July 2006

2 2 Water management issues Climate change Environmental flow enhancement Population increase Urban rural water trading Recycling Desalination Water use efficiency

3 3 2032 Water Price $/KL Current Water price* No InitiativeTrade Trade + water. @ $1.50/kL Trade + water @ $1.00/kL Trade + Water @ $1.50 plus wage driven migration Sydney1.368.092.972.712.622.71 Melbourne1.175.961.571.531.511.54 Brisbane-Moreton1.2710.512.612.392.312.25 Adelaide1.301.421.701.661.641.67 Perth1.1211.406.334.503.904.07 ACT1.113.231.511.471.451.48

4 4 Shadow price increase 2032-2001 Current Water price* No InitiativeTrade Trade + water. @ $1.50/kL Trade + water @ $1.00/kL Trade + Water @ $1.50 plus wage driven migration Sydney100%595%218%199%193%199% Melbourne100%509%134%131%129%132% Brisbane- Moreton100%827%205%188%182%177% Adelaide100%109%131%128%126%128% Perth100%1018%565%401%348%364% ACT100%291%136%132%130%133%

5 5 Australian indicative population projections

6 6 Climate Change

7 7 Technical Water Use efficiency Water requirement per unit of output Rural water use = 34% Urban water use = 22%  Similar to WSAA estimate

8 8 TERM = The Enormous Regional Model 58 ABS statistical regions 167 sectors from 107 ABS Split out energy use and water use Household consumption increases with income Industry consumption a function of output Consistent with ABS Water Accounts Not yet dynamic

9 9 18 Regions created from 58 1 Sydney NSW 2 Murrumbidgee NSW 3 Murray NSW 4 West NSW 5 Rest NSW 6 Melbourne VIC 7 Mallee VIC 8 Rest Irrig VIC 9 Rest VIC 10 Brisbane- Moreton QLD 11 Burnett-Darling QLD 12 Rest QLD 13 Adelaide SA 14 Rest SA 15 Perth WA 16 Rest WA 17 Tas & NT 18 ACT 1 2 3 45 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 8 18

10 10 Water supply Assumptions Assumptions  Eastern and Southern Mainland Australia decrease by 15%  Western Australia no further drop in supply  NT and Tasmania not supply restricted

11 11 The Economy A “Smooth Growth” extrapolation of Access Economics Projections Australia keeps on chugging along Holding its current place in the world

12 12 Scenarios 1.No trading, no new sources, ABS projections 2.Urban-rural trading 3.Trade + New sources  a) Extra 80GL new water @ $1.50/KL  b) Extra 120GL new water @ $1.00/KL 4.Wage driven migration

13 13 Region* Aggregate consumption Real GSP and GRP Aggregate EmploymentPopulation (%) Sydney36.236.312.920.2 Murrumbidgee34.234.417.825.5 Murray NSW33.833.919.827.6 Western NSW42.943.026.335.6 Rest NSW34.935.016.324.2 Melbourne38.238.314.322.3 Mallee VIC32.432.513.921.5 Rest Irrig VIC34.634.716.223.9 Rest VIC61.461.643.053.6 Brisbane-Moreton61.161.240.551.5 Burnett-Darling QLD65.966.046.954.2 Rest QLD14.114.2-4.95.2 Adelaide10.310.4-6.93.8 Rest SA16.116.2-4.26.6 Perth42.242.324.134.9 Rest WA61.361.532.143.3 Tas & NT34.434.519.518.6 ACT12.412.5-3.37.7

14 14 S1 Water use change (GL) Demand growth Non- agric. supply growth Agricult ural tech. change Water availabil ity Agric effic & leakage Reduce d househ old require mentsTotal Crops & Livestock99-6231586-815-774151-376 Dairy43-73-363-701219112-763 Cotton-43314-904-59678577-1057 Rice-19630-380-44833756-601 Household-869-91-142244-362-290 Other495583153-479-811-34-93 Australia000-3,18200

15 15 S1 Value of output (%) Demand growth Taste changes and non- agric. supply growth Agric. tech. change Reduced water availability Agric. water- efficiency gains and leakage reductions Reduced househol d water needsTotal Crops & Livestock8.2-16.547.9-9.121.91.754.1 Dairy9.8-5.715.3-16.840.92.646.1 Cotton-11.90.5-32.7-17.663.22.23.7 Rice-11.21.4-23.5-26.161.23.45.2

16 16 Demand growth Taste changes and non- agric. supply growth Agric. tech. change Reduced water availability Agric. water- efficiency gains and leakage reductions Reduced household water needsTotal Western NSW0.75-0.550.710.22-1.43-0.05-0.35 Adelaide0.610.310.501.07-1.56-0.820.11 Murray NSW0.61-0.170.510.41-1.13-0.050.18 Murrumbidgee0.61-0.170.520.41-1.12-0.050.20 Rest QLD0.56-0.130.800.65-1.49-0.090.30 Rest SA0.65-0.070.540.52-1.09-0.090.46 Burnett-Darling QLD0.74-0.110.520.39-0.67-0.070.80 Mallee VIC1.18-0.080.840.78-1.75-0.140.83 Rest Irrig VIC1.29-0.020.620.74-1.50-0.150.98 Rest VIC1.27-0.010.580.72-1.21-0.151.20 Rest NSW1.190.140.331.21-1.27-0.161.44 Tas & NT2.090.161.110.59-2.09-0.371.49 ACT2.952.55-0.691.16-0.22-3.801.95 Rest WA4.231.441.760.78-3.45-0.534.23 Melbourne2.552.39-0.222.23-1.39-1.154.41 Sydney3.703.81-0.592.52-0.77-2.476.20 Brisbane-Moreton5.593.53-0.171.91-1.07-1.288.51 Perth6.575.82-0.170.40-1.18-1.979.47 S1 Decomposition of shadow price increase ($/KL)

17 17 Economic Change (S2%-S1 %) ConsumptionReal GDPEmployment Sydney-0.2 -0.6 Murrumbidgee-4.5-4.6-3.6 Murray NSW-5.3 -4.1 Western NSW-11.0 -10.3 Rest NSW-1.9 -1.3 Melbourne1.4 0.4 Mallee VIC5.6 3.3 Rest Irrig VIC5.05.12.1 Rest VIC0.2 0.0 Brisbane-Moreton11.111.26.3 Burnett-Darling QLD-8.4 -4.3 Rest QLD-2.0 -1.6 Adelaide-2.3 -1.8 Rest SA-2.0 -1.6 Perth4.6 2.4 Rest WA-4.8 -3.1 Tas & NT-1.3 ACT-0.8 -0.7 Australia10.60

18 18 S2 Urban – Rural Trading (S2%-S1 %)

19 19 Population changes by scenario

20 20 Change water use by scenario (GL) No tradeTradeTrade + 80 GL source @ $1.50 Trade + 120 GL source @ $1.00 Wage migration + 80 GL @ $1.50 + trade Crops & Livestock-376-356-268-227-268 Dairy-763-477-462-455-470 Cotton-1057-1493-1445-1421-1429 Rice-601-708-690-681-689 Household-290-246-235-226-232 Other-9398158188145 National-3182 -2942-2822-2942

21 21 Employment effects by Scenario

22 22 Actual price by scenario

23 23 Conclusion

24 Drops of water turn into rivers and aquifers Contact: Prof Mike Young Water Economics and Management Email: Mike.Young@adelaide.edu.au Phone: +61-8-8303.5279 Mobile: +61-408-488.538

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