1. Seasonal Forecasting and Weather/Climate information at WMO
Robert Stefanski/José Camacho
Agricultural Meteorology Division
Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch
Climate and Water Department

2. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva
Outline
Seasonal Forecasts and Agriculture
WIS and WIGOS
Global Framework for Climate Services
Summary
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

3. Climate Prediction and Agriculture
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

4. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
First established in 1996 at a Meeting in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe.
Gained momentum as a regional response to the major 1997–1998 El Niño event.
RCOF Concept was pioneered in Africa and spread worldwide.
WMO and a number of national, regional and international organizations (e.g., NOAA, IRI, Meteo France, World Bank, etc.) have supported their growth and expansion.
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

5. Existing RCOFs worldwide
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

6. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva
RCOF Concept
Climate information including predictions/outlooks substantial benefit in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate variability and change.
RCOFs have the responsibility to produce and disseminate a regional assessment (using a consensus-based approach) of regional climate for the upcoming season.
Built into the RCOF process is a regional networking of the climate service providers and user-sector representatives.
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

7. GHACOF Products & Applications
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

8. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

9. User Community for Climate Forecasts
Producers use climate information to assist with many decisions:
Crop choice
Choice of cultivar (early or late)
Mixture of crops
Fertiliser use
Pest and disease control
Timing of the harvest
Irrigation scheduling
Area planted to a given crop (and/or rotation of fields);
Timing and amount of tillage
Stocking rates.
Source: Huda 2006
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

10. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, GenevaW
CAgM Expert Team Meeting on Climate Change/Variability and Medium- to Long-Range Predictions for Agriculture, Brisbane, Australia February Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, Vol 58, No. 10
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

11. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva
Preparedness information on which to make a decision: DSS ‘Whopper Cropper’ – integrates climate forecasting, crop simulation modelling, and agronomic information.
Source: Stone & Meinke 2006
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

12. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva
WIS and WIGOS
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

13. Current situation: GTS
World Meteorological Centres
WWW GTS
Regional/Specialized Meteorological Centres
National Meteorological Centres
Meteorological and R&D Satellite Operator Centres
Slide 5 (start) (2.3 min)
To realise these objectives, WMO needs to quickly and efficiently collect information about the earth, process it, create relevant products and then distribute that information. This is a global operation that takes place several times a day, every day of the year. To achieve this, WMO has established very effective global communication systems along with the collaboration mechanisms necessary for sustaining such a system. Historically, the WMO World Weather Watch took the lead in this communication and associated data management systems and built and maintained the Global Telecommunication System - The GTS. This system maintains a wide area network connecting all 188 member countries and territories, most of whom pass this information along with local content downstream to their users including other organisations such as the private meteorological service providers.
Slide 5 (2nd component)
This is an exemplar system but despite all its qualities, the GTS cannot meet all WMO needs.
Slide 5 (3rd component)
Assisted by advances in technology, especially with the growth of the internet, various WMO activities had established their own systems for exchanging information. Many of our member countries also established internet portals to allow easier and cheaper distribution of their information and products. This is pretty much what you would be familiar with today.
Unfortunately, where as the GTS had functioned like a library in that there are established catalogues and dissemination tables, this multi system approach bypassed this data management attribute. Thus the GTS system no longer represents all information available. To find out what is in another program you need to know someone or something about it to know where to look for the information.
interconnects
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

14. Goals of WMO Information System (WIS)
GTS needs to be open to all WMO activities to provide time critical information exchange
Internet should be a part of WIS to allow support of less critical requirements
The continuous improvement and adaptation of new technologies in the GTS should be maintained.
The WIS should be open to more than just WMO programs allowing partners to participate
Need seamless discovery, access and retrieval (DAR) across all WMO systems, including collaborators and partners.
Slide 6 (70 sec)
Thus the goal of WIS is to bring all the WMO systems under one interoperable framework and at the same time, make the high quality GTS available to all programs so they too can reliably exchange time critical information. Similarly the WIS should incorporate the internet, especially for less critical information. This new system WIS should sustain the continuous improvement approach of the GTS without disrupting or detuning the GTS.
WIS should be open to all programs allowing collaborative partners and other specialist centres outside of WMO to be a part of WIS. However, one of the key new functions of WIS is to bring back the ability to discover and retrieve information from WMO. This DAR will allow interoperability with other systems and will be an exemplar component of GEOSS.
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

15. WMO Information System (WIS)
World Radiation Centre
Regional Instrument Centres
International Organizations (IAEA, CTBTO, UNEP, FAO.. )
5 GAW World Data Centres
GCOS Data Centres
Global Run-off Data Centre
On-demand “pull”
IRI and other climate research institutes
Universities
Regional Climate Centres
DCPC
NC/ DCPC NC
NC/
GISC
Managed, Regional and Internet
Communication Networks
Satellite Two-Way System
Satellite Dissemination
Commercial Service Providers
Internet
WMO World Data Centres
Slide 8 (2.2 Min)
This diagram shows how the functional components of WIS connect. It looks a lot like the GTS and has National Centres that consist of our NMHS. However, it may now include other centres where a country feels a requirement. These other centres may be Hydrological Centres etc where such functions are outside of the NMHS role in that country.
The Global information system centres (GISC) act as hubs for information sharing and also host the metadata catalogues that will allow single discovery points where all programmes register what information is available across WMO and its associated activities. These GISCs are the key to the discovery and access services of WIS.
The next centres are the Data Collection or Production Centres. These are specialist centres that host the information for WMO and create products of WMO. They are similar to an NC but usually have a thematic role or offer specialist services. RSMCs are typical DCPC candidates as are centres such as the ECMWF and EUMETSAT here in region VI.
Also in this diagram, see that the green boxes contain many other types of centres that are not necessarily WMO centres but have a close collaborative role or partnership. These external centres can register their information in WIS and can interact with the WIS as a contributor rather than external user.
The final functional element of WIS is the communication system that joins it all together. In this system, the GTS and the internet work together as well as other dissemination technologies, either broadcast or two-way such as Inmarsat and Navtex.
Real-time “push”
National Centres (NC)
Global Information System Centres (GISC)
Data Collection and Production Centres (DCPC)
Data communication network
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

16. WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS)
Different diverse WMO observing systems;
Need for integration of these diverse obs. systems in a holistic approach;
WIGOS – the organizational response of WMO to this need.
Comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable system of observing systems based on the RQs
of all WMO Programmes;
Together with WIS it aims to deliver an WMO end-to-end system of systems designed:
to improve the Members’ capability to provide wide range of services,
to better serve the needs of research programmes.
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

17. WMO Congress (Resolution 30)
Towards Enhanced Integration between the WMO Observing Systems
Strategic objective of WMO;
Parallel planning and implementation with WIS (end-to-end system of systems)
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

18. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva
WIGOS - framework
WIGOS will be an organizational framework facilitating standardization and interoperability and ensuring:
availability of, and real-, near-real- and non-real-time access to, required good-quality data/products and associated metadata;
data quality standards are documented, met and sustained.
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

19. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva
WIGOS - purpose
The organizational, programmatic, procedural and governance framework will provide:
a single focus for the operational and management functions of all WMO obs. systems and
a mechanism for interactions with WMO co-sponsored observing systems.
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

20. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva
WIGOS - relationship
WIGOS will respect:
Partnership,
Ownership and
Data-sharing policy
of all obs. components and partner organizations.
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

21. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva
Global Framework for
Climate Services
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

22. Global Framework for Climate Services
Goal:
Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice.
WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE - 3 Geneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

23. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva
GFCS: Objectives
Provide a cooperative framework in which all nations, International organizations, scientists and sectors will work together to meet the needs of users;
Enable users to benefit from improved climate information and prediction;
Mobilize climate science globally to advance the skills of seasonal-to-interannual and multi-decadal climate predictions to generate and provide future climate information on an operational basis;
Cooperative global infrastructure to foster sharing new advances in science and information.
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

24. Climate Services Cycle
Delivery of
Products
Climate Services Information Systems
Climate User Interface Programme
Development of information and products
Capacity Building
Application of Products
Research, Modelling and Prediction
Observations
Monitoring and Analysis
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

25. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva
Status of GFCS
Approved by WMO Congress in June 2011;
Inter-Agency Consultation Meeting on User Interface Platform for GFCS (FAO HQ – Sep 2011)
Extraordinary Session of the WMO Congress in to address the development of the draft GFCS implementation plan and establishment of Rules of Procedure for the Intergovernmental Board
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

26. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva
Summary
RCOFs structure supporting agricultural decision making
WIS as a open concept to provide weather and climate information to a wider community than the NMHS.
WIGOS provide common ground for better technical management of observations in a world scale
GEO GLAM Meeting, September 2011, Geneva

27. World Meteorological Organization Geneva Switzerland
Thank You
World Meteorological Organization
Geneva
Switzerland