1. 1 Presented for the ROK Team, by David Von Hippel, based on work by Dr. Kim Hoseok Prepared for the East Asia Science and Security Project Meeting, September 23-24, 2010 Tsinghua University, Beijing, PRC Overview of/Update on the LEAP Modeling Effort in the Republic of Korea

2. 2 OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION:  The ROK LEAP Model—Current Status and Ongoing Work  Data Sources  Model Structure  Existing Paths  Preliminary Results  Work ongoing and to be done

3. 3 The ROK LEAP Model: Key Data Sources  Overall: KEEI detailed energy balance tables  Residential — Driven by number of households  Energy: 2008 Energy Consumption Survey (MOCIE 2008), Survey on Electricity Consumption Characteristics of Home Appliances (2006)  Activities: National Demographic Survey (NSO)  Industrial — Driven by industrial GDP, share  Energy: 2008 Energy Consumption Survey (MOCIE 2008), Yearbook of Energy Statistics (MOCIE & KEEI)  Activities: Economic Statistics System  Commercial/public — Driven by building area  Energy: 2008 Energy Consumption Survey (MOCIE 2008), Yearbook of Energy Statistics (MOCIE & KEEI)  Activities: Sectoral floor space information from 2007 Wholesale & Retail Survey and 2007 Service Industry Survey

4. 4 The ROK LEAP Model: Key Data Sources  Transport — Driven by number of vehicles and travel distance  Energy: 2008 Energy Consumption Survey (MOCIE 2008), Yearbook of Energy Statistics (MOCIE & KEEI)  Activities: Fuel Economy & car sales data from KEMCO, Travel distance from Road Safety Corporation, Yearbook of Construction & Transportation Statistics  Transformation Module Data:  Yearbook of Energy Statistics (MOCIE & KEEI)  Korea Electric Power Corporation  Korea Gas Corporation  Korea Coal Corporation  Korea District Heating Corporation  Socio-Economic Indicators  Statistics Korea  Bank of Korea

5. 5 ROK2010

6. 6 The ROK LEAP Model: Demand Structure DEMAND SECTOR SUB-SECTORSACTIVITY PARAMETERS FUELS Residential HEAT: By dwelling type (Traditional, coal, oil, LPG, town gas, central, district, others) APPLIANCES: 18 electric appliance types Households Dwelling types Saturation of end uses (%) electricity, LPG, heat, coal, kerosene, town gas Industrial Agriculture & Fishery Mining Manufacturing: divided into 10 business types Construction Industrial sector GDP (Korean Won, or KRW) Shares of each sub-sector (%) Energy intensity (E/KRW) Fuel share (%) coal, gasoline, kerosene, diesel, fuel oil, LPG, town gas, heat, electricity, naphtha

7. 7 The ROK LEAP Model: Demand Structure DEMAND SECTOR SUB-SECTORSACTIVITY PARAMETERS FUELS Commercial & Public 11 business types: Waste ma nagement, wholesale and re tail, hotel and restaurant, information & communication, real estate, scientific activities, business support, education, health and social work, art and sports, other services Floorspace (m 2 ) Energy intensity (kcal/m 2 ) Fuel share (%) electricity, LPG, fuel oil, heat, diesel, kerosene, town gas Transportation (Domestic only) Private vehicles Mass Transit & freight Vehicle population Shares of each vehicle type (%) Energy Intensity (E/vehicle) gasoline, diesel, LPG, natural gas, electricity, fuel oil

8. 8 The ROK LEAP Model: Demand Activities Assumptions Activity/Parameter2008201020202030 Population (million)48.648.949.348.6 GDP Growth Rate (%)4.24.753.662.24 Commercial floor space (million square meters) 385.6404.7607.7807.1 Vehicle Population (million vehi cles) 17.018.426.034.7

9. 9 The ROK LEAP Model: Transformation Structure MODULEPROCESS TYPESKEY PARAMETERSFUELS Electricity Transmission & DistributionLosses (%) Electricity Generation Coal steam Oil steam LNG steam Combined cycle Internal combustion Nuclear Hydro System load factor (%) Process shares (%) Efficiency (%) Base year output Exogenous capacity Merit order (base, intermediate, peak) Fuel share (%) Coal Fuel oil Natural gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro District Heating Heat only boiler (HOB)Efficiency (%)Natural gas, fuel oil, town gas Town Gas ProductionEfficiency (%)Natural gas, LPG LNG GasificationEfficiency (%)LNG Oil RefiningEfficiency (%)Crude oil

10. 10 THE ROK LEAP MODEL TRANSFORMATION STRUCTURE  Electricity T&D  Electricity Generation — 11 Types of power plants, including Industrial Combined Heat and Power (CHP)  District Heat production  Town Gas production  LNG Gasification  Oil Refining  Blast Furnace Gas Production  Coke Production

11. 11 SCENARIOS

12. 12 THE ROK LEAP MODEL: Assumptions Key Future Assumptions in Energy Demand  Residential  Space heating — continued increase in the share of town gas and district heating, and continued slow decline in intensity per housing unit  Substantial increase in use of air conditioners, some increases in number of televisions, kimchi refrigerators, vacuum cleaners per household  The energy intensity of electric appliance use decreases at 0.5%/yr

13. 13 THE ROK LEAP MODEL: Assumptions Key Future Assumptions in Energy Demand  Industrial — Driven by industrial GDP, share  Share of value added by Manufacturing falls slowly  Within Manufacturing, share of “ fabricated metal ” increases over time, others decrease  Services share of value added increases over time  Commercial/public — Driven by building area, which rises rapidly  Fuel shares remain relatively constant; energy intensity decreases  Transport — Number of vehicles nearly doubles, dominated by private vehicles  Most transport energy intensities decline slowly over time

14. 14 THE ROK LEAP MODEL: Scenarios Future Energy Paths for the Republic of Korea  Business-as-Usual (BAU) path  Assumes generally that existing policies and currently evolving economy/energy sector trends continue, similar to Ministry of Knowledge Economy reference case projections  Minimum Nuclear (MIN) path  Assumes no additional reactors beyond those currently under construction or planned with defined construction start dates  Existing reactors are decommissioned after 40 years of life for PWRs, and 30 years of life for CANDU units, but are not replaced  Total nuclear capacity in the ROK falls from peak of ~29 GW in 2019/2020 to 20 GW by 2030  To compensate for decreased nuclear capacity, MIN case includes an increase in coal-fired and LNG combined-cycle plants in ratio of 70%/30%

15. 15 THE ROK LEAP MODEL: Scenarios Future Energy Paths for the Republic of Korea  Maximum Nuclear (MAX) path  Assumes the same schedule for decommissioning of existing reactors as in the MIN and BAU,, but assumes that a new 1400 MW PWR unit is placed in service each year from 2016 through 2029 (14 units total), more than replacing the 4 smaller units decommissioned during that time  Retirement schedule for all LWR units is assumed to be extended to 50 years  Total nuclear generation capacity by 2030 is 42.8 GW  The additional nuclear capacity above the BAU case included the MAX case is assumed to displace coal-fired and LNG-combined cycle plants in the ratio 70%/30%

16. 16 200720102015202020252030 Antracite Coal1.1 0.6 0.7 Bituminous Coal19.323.128.8 29.931.8 Oil Steam4.5 3.5 2.93.1 LNG Steam1.50.90000 Internal Combustion0.3 0.2 Combined Cycle13.815.919.3 2021.3 1.83.13.8 3.94.2 Nuclear17.718.725.931.534.236.3 Hydro5.5 6.4 6.67 Renewable1.70.71.72.42.52.6 Total67.373.990.196.4100.9107.1 Generation Capacity Projections (GW)

17. 17 Final Energy Demand by Sector: BAU

18. 18 Final Energy Demand by Fuel: BAU

19. 19 Primary Energy Requirements by Fuel: BAU

20. 20 Electricity Outputs by Fuel

21. 21 Total GHG Emissions by Scenario

22. 22 THE ROK LEAP MODEL: Next Steps  Final check of Path inputs and results for consistency with sources  Revise older “ National Alternative ” path that emphasizes aggressive application of energy efficiency and renewable energy measures  Revise older “ Regional Alternative ” path that includes National Alternative attributes, and also models the inclusion of the ROK in regional energy cooperation initiatives  Detail attributes of the Maximum Nuclear and Minimum Nuclear paths as needed for modeling of regional nuclear fuel cycle cooperation

23. 23 THANK YOU!