1. Institute for Transport Studies FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT Assessing the potential contribution of new technologies to sustainable urban passenger transport Professor Tony May SMRT Professor 2007

2. The potential contribution of new technologies New technologies for urban passenger transport The CityMobil project The technologies in more detail The three demonstrators Predicting the impacts of city-wide applications The modelling approach The planned predictive tests and evaluation The next steps

3. Automated transport systems Cybercars Driverless vehicles, electronic guideways Personal rapid transit Driverless vehicles, Segregated guideways High tech buses Electronic guideways Driven on city streets Dual mode vehicles Automated following Driven on city streets Advanced city cars Small, low emission With ADAS facilities

4. The CityMobil project An Integrated Project within the EC FP6 programme Funded by EC DG Research €11m funding; 40% on demonstrators, 60% research Led by TNO (Netherlands) With 28 partners from 12 countries Five years from May 2006 www.citymobil-project.eu

5. CityMobil: Objectives To achieve more effective organisation of urban transport With more rational use of motorised traffic Less congestion, pollution, accidents Higher quality of life Better integration with spatial development Through the application of new technologies For passengers and freight Drawing on past European research On new technologies: Netmobil (www.netmobil.org) On land use and transport strategies: LUTR (www.lutr.net)

6. CityMobil: Project structure

7. Cybercar Outline Small automated vehicles Capacity 4-6 people, also larger 10-20 person vehicles, able to carry freight Rubber tyres operating on conventional infrastructure Electric propulsion Fully autonomous operation Or able to use information from traffic control, infrastructure, users Using separate infrastructure or shared space Able in theory to interact with other traffic, but currently limited to low speeds (< 10 km/h) in pedestrian areas User target: alternative to buses, walking; low mobility; freight

8. Personal Rapid Transit Outline Four to six seat automated taxi Light weight to reduce infrastructure costs and power requirements Separate light weight guideway with little or no interaction with other traffic or pedestrians High manoeuvrability permits integration into current buildings and infrastructure Available on demand (“public transport that waits for you”) Station to station routeing; no intermediate stops; off-line stations Operating speeds of around 40 km/h Automated guidance, merging and diverging Electric propulsion (battery, linear motor) User target: alternative to taxis, buses, walking

9. High Tech Bus Outline Equivalent to a conventional bus (40-70 seats) or light rapid transit (70-150 seats) Rubber tyres, operating on conventional road infrastructure Electric or low emission diesel powered Dual mode, with driver, permitting extended use on conventional bus routes Uses conventional routes and stops, as for bus services Can operate on exclusive lanes or shared E-lanes Electronic or optical automated guidance and following Driver assistance under automated guidance User target: public transport replacing conventional bus and car

10. Dual Mode Car Outline A-size Derived from conventional cars Hybrid propulsion > 30 km electric range <100 CO 2 g/km Pollutant emission: 50% regulation Automated Guidance (with driver’s supervision) in E-lanes Fully automated guidance and interoperability with cybercars ADAS systems: collision avoidance, speed limiting, turning assistance Intelligent Speed Adaptation & Route Guidance User target: private, public (advanced car sharing)

11. Advanced City Car Outline Sub-A size Max. speed: 80 km/h Electric/Hybrid propulsion 120/30 km electric range <80 CO 2 g/km Pollutant emission: 50% regulation Intelligent Speed Adaptation and Route Guidance Safety levels compatible with ordinary traffic Environment friendly materials Comfort and accessibility to cater for reduced mobility Mass production technologies User target: private, public (car sharing)

12. Demonstrations and city studies Three major demonstrators Cybercars: Rome PRT: Heathrow High Tech Buses: Castellon (Spain) A series of showcases Two week demonstrations to increase public understanding Daventry (UK), Trondheim (No): Cybercars La Rochelle (Fr), Genoa (It): Advanced City Cars Predictive studies of four cities Desk studies of two or three more cities A Reference Group of 22 cities across Europe

13. The Rome demonstrator Cybercar service linking car park to new exhibition centre Basic characteristics Total route length: 1617 m 1 roadway with 2 lanes Roundabouts at either end 12 stops (max 100m from parking) with automatic doors Six vehicles Regular headway service making all stops 12 emergency exits (maximum distance:70m) Control centre and depot Potential for more flexible service later, subject to Ministry approval

14. The car park layout TAVOLA 3 – PARCHEGGIO P1 CONRETE CTS

15. The Heathrow demonstrator PRT system linking long stay car parks to new Terminal 5 A pre-trial for Heathrow wide application To replace all shuttle buses Using ULTra technology Battery operated 4 seat vehicles Light weight guideway System specification 16 vehicles Station to station service (no stops) On demand, low maximum waiting time Opening early 2009, after 12 months with shuttle buses

16. The Heathrow network

17. The prototype vehicle

19. Station layout on the test track

20. The Castellón demonstrator High Tech Bus corridor From university to city centre And subsequently along the coast Automated guideway in central section Using optical guidance Driver-operated on some sections of route Electric vehicles First section open in 2008

21. The Castellón network

22. The Castellon vehicles

23. The optical guidance system

24. The Daventry showcase

25. Future scenarios: objectives and work packages Principal objective: Assessing how automated transport systems Fit into scenarios for urban transport Contribute to sustainability Work Packages 1.State of the Art Report 2.Context and application scenarios 3.Predictive models and case studies 4.Business case models 5.Guidelines for safety, security and privacy

26. Future Scenarios: Progress to date WP2.1 State of the Art Report completed WP2.2 Context scenarios completed With input from two rounds of Delphi survey Application scenarios completed Covering both passenger and freight Assessing applicability for different parts of a city City Application Manual Concept being developed for discussion

27. Specification of context scenarios Mixed predictability Low influenceMixed influenceHigh influence High predictability 3 macro elements6 macro elements5 macro elements 2 macro elements4 macro elements3 macro elements Low predictability 1 macro element7 macro elements

28. The high influence macro elements High predictability Population ageing; Share of urban population Growing congestion; Growing road safety concerns Growing air pollution, noise and global warming Medium predictability GDP growth; Investment in automated technologies and interactions between them Increased energy efficiency Low predictability Fuel prices Awareness of global warming and sustainability concerns Revitalisation of inner city centres; Land use planning Transport/ICT infrastructure; Transport pricing and taxation; Urban freight terminals

29. Passenger mobility concepts

30. Application scenarios: principal passenger applications Cybercars Public transport in inner city* Public transport feeder in low density areas* Personal Rapid Transit Public transport in inner city* Shuttle from parking facility High Tech Bus Dedicated lanes on radial corridors* Dual Mode Vehicles Dedicated E-lanes on corridors, networks* Advanced City Cars Permitted vehicles in city centres

31. The City Application Manual Designed to guide cities considering new technologies Potentially based on Decision-Makers’ Guidebook Possible outline: Scenarios Identifying suitable options Estimating patronage Illustrative predictive results High level appraisal Illustrative appraisal results Barriers and ways of overcoming them Guidance on detailed design Possible micro-simulation examples Planned for late 2008

32. Future Scenarios: Progress to date WP2.3 Predictive strategic models MARS model selected Four representative application cities selected Models virtually complete Investigative micro-simulation models To support MARS model By providing information on access, wait, in-vehicle, egress time And impacts on other modes, and operating costs Predictive tests in four cities Testing programme virtually finalised To be completed by October 2007

33. Future Scenarios: Progress to date WP2.4 Business case model Being developed currently Focusing on business and transport cases To be tested in four modelled cities WP2.5 Certification guidelines Guidelines due in November 2007 Strategies to overcome political, legal and administrative barriers First categorisation of barriers complete Further work in 2008 Guidelines for safety, security and privacy To be developed later

34. Task 2.1.1 Contribution of new technologies (TNO) Task 2.2.1 Visioning of the future (CSST) Task 2.2.2 Passenger application scenarios (TNO) Task 2.2.3 Freight application scenarios (CSST) Task 2.2.4 City application manual (TML) Task 2.3.1 Identify requirements for analytical tools (ITS) Task 2.3.2 Review of potential models and information sources (DLR) Task 2.3.3 Model development (ITS) Task 2.4.1 Literature review (TRG) Task 2.4.2 Co-ordination with site selection (TRG) Task 2.4.3 Co-ordination with the evaluation plan (DITS) Task 2.4.4 Generic economic analysis tool (TRG) Task 2.5.1 Review phase (SINTEF) Task 2.5.2 Definition phase (SINTEF) Task 2.5.3 Production phase (TNO) context Influence city choice & outputs for evaluation Background for business models (city typology) Influence city choice for surveys & use review of barriers Scenarios to be modelled context Focus for business models Model requirements Methodology Model tests Task 2.3.4 Model application (ITS)

35. The role of the predictive tests To assess the likely contribution to urban transport policy objectives of each of the four technologies If applied at a significant scale In representative European cities To contribute to an ex ante evaluation of these technologies To complement ex post evaluations of specific applications Cybercars in the new Rome exhibition centre PRT in London Heathrow High tech buses on a corridor in Castellon, Spain A series of smaller showcase applications

36. The focus of the predictive tests Four cities Selected to be reasonably representative of different city types in Europe With commonly specified policy tests and appraisal in all four to permit comparison of the potential for each technology in each city But with additional tests of city-specific options and appraisal weightings The four cities Almere (NL) (250k): a new city expanding to 400k Gateshead (UK) (300k): part of a 1,100k polycentric conurbation Trondheim (NO) (200k): a smaller monocentric city Vienna (AT) (1,600k): a major monocentric city

37. Specifying the CityMobil tests: inputs Context scenarios For 2015, 2030, 2050 High influence macro-elements Medium and high growth And appropriate complementary policy instruments Application scenarios Vehicle and mobility concepts (supply) Urban configurations (demand) Evaluation requirements Transport patterns Social, Environmental, Economic and Financial impacts

38. Context scenarios High influence macro-elements: medium and high trends to 2035 Population ageing Fuel price increases Increased fuel efficiency Urbanisation Inner city revitalisation High influence complementary policies Land use planning Traffic control and ICT applications Reallocation of road space Pricing: fares, parking, roads

39. Application scenarios: applications to be tested Cybercars Public transport in inner city Public transport feeder in low density areas Personal Rapid Transit Public transport in inner city High Tech Bus Dedicated lanes on radial corridors Dual Mode Vehicles Dedicated E-lanes on corridors, networks

40. Complementary measures Measure categoriesHigh impact measures Land use planningCity centre development 20% greater than that currently in city plans Transport and ICTPriority for new modes at all traffic signals (area-wide) Traffic engineering solutions Re-distribution of existing road space to new vehicles on all new mode routes, and a car free city centre Transport pricing  Inner city road pricing cordon, am peak only, €5 charge per day  PT fare reductions of 20% over the 30 year period  Parking fees to increase by 50% over the 30 year period

41. The range of models Sketch planning land use and transport models Provide the high level impacts and interactions Can conduct large numbers of tests rapidly But do not provide detailed performance characteristics (Macroscopic transport models) (Mesoscopic network models) Microscopic network models Can describe system performance for input to high level model Using a combination of sketch and microscopic models

42. The MARS model A very fast land use and transport interaction model (c1 minute per test) Works at a high spatial aggregation level (typically 30 – 50 zones) Two person groups (person in household with / without a car) Two trip purposes (commuting / other) Two time periods (peak and off-peak) Four modes of transport (Slow, Bus, Rail, Car) Includes feedback loops between land use and transport systems Adaptation speed: transport system – 1 year; land use system – 5 years Trip generation using the constant travel time budget theory A dynamic model, generating forecasts typically over 30 years

43. Institute for Transport Studies FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT

44. MARS-Model description Demographic transition and growth model Car ownership model External scenarios Transport policy instruments Policy instruments Landuse policy instruments TOD modelTransport model Transport submodel Housing development model Employment locationHousehold location model Land use sub-model -use Objective Functions: User benefits Operator benefits Investment costs Changes land patterns....

45. Causal Link Diagrams in MARS

46. A typical MARS output (CO 2 emissions)

47. The role of micro-simulation To obtain parameter values for Access time, waiting time, in-vehicle time, egress time Impacts on other modes (where relevant) Operating costs All for different configurations and service levels Focusing on Cybercars and PRT: one model Dual mode vehicles: two models High Tech Buses to be based on existing studies

48. Microsimulation: the effects of dual mode vehicle use

49. The planned sequence of tests All conducted for four cities For the period 2005-2035 For medium and high growth scenarios Do nothing (specified by each city) Each of five application scenarios, defined to be as consistent as possible across the four cities Alone With an agreed set of complementary measures City-specific applications as resources permit 22+ tests for each city = 88 tests to be compared

50. The planned tests for each city Exogenous trend applications Medium growthHigh growth Do nothingM0H0 New technologies With complementary policies No complementary policies With complementary policies No complementary policies Cybercar (inner city)MW1M1HW1H1 Cybercar (PT feeder)MW2M2HW2H2 PRTMW3M3HW3H3 High tech busMW4M4HW4H4 DMV (city wide)MW5M5HW5H5

51. The evaluation framework Multi-criteria based using outcome indicators With additional intermediate outcome indicators Designed to be applied consistently across all elements of CityMobil to the extent that is feasible For the predictive tests: Standard set of MCA outcome indicators available from MARS Common set of objective weights across all cities And city-specific weights to assess sensitivity Standard set of intermediate outcome indicators to understand performance All results for whole city and for a defined inner city area

52. The evaluation framework: Outcome indicators Social Accessibility by all modes and by non-car modes Accessibility in low income zones Accident numbers Environmental Energy consumption and CO2 emissions NOX and PM10 emissions Change in urban area Economic Average delay in person hours Average annual travelling costs Economic and financial cost benefit ratios Economic vitality index Environmental Sustainability Economic Sustainability Social Sustainability Comprehensive Sustainability

53. The evaluation framework: Intermediate indicators Transport Total trips made Total passenger kilometres Mode shares Vehicle occupancy for automated modes Average travel time Average waiting time Average delay Effective system capacity Financial Investment costs Operating costs Revenues and subsidies

54. The next steps All four models available by December Do nothing tests and review in January Principal testing programme to June Interpretation of results and discussion with cities in July Report of results in September Outputs used For testing the Business Case Model As input to the City Application Manual Final review of results and methods in early 2011