1. RSIS Panel Discussion. Monday, 12th November 2007. Presentation by Jorgen Orstrom Moller Visiting Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Former Danish Ambassador to Singapore

2. Soundbyte  The cold war ended in 1990. The cold war’s geo-political structure ended in February/March 2003

3. The role of the US  US as megapower but no international institutionalisation reflecting this new phenomenon  Unilateral multilateralism  Prevention and pre-emption, but what about other countries  Coalition of the willing – pressure on the unwilling  US losing its hard won right of primogeniture showing the way, rallying nations and people behind a banner of ethics and values

4. Power  There has never been so much power around, never been so difficult to use it  Military. Who are the enemy, how to fight the enemy, structure of armed forces  Economics. Globalization limits the room of manoeuvre for individual nation-states  Values. Fight for the moral high ground. Fundamentalism, US strive for democracy.  The power vector winning the game is ethics, you can do very little against the global opinion, dissemination of news out of control.

5. The former model – Nationalism.  Pursuance of national interests – increase territory, wealth etc by taking from other nation-states  Sovereignty – used as bulwark against interference from outside, a filter so to speak  Threat against territory  Von Clausewitz: Crisis – Conflict – Confrontation → War

6. The new model – Globalization/Regionalization  Transnational forces, Supranational enterprises, International organisations,  Cross border pressure groups Multinational civic society  Threat against our societies, not our nation-states, the way our societies function, not our borders.  The international community needs to defend itself against forces trying to disrupt the international - global – system.  New Strategic thinking: Co-operation – Compromise – Consensus → Global Governance

7. Sovereignty  Defensive in its character. What required now is active and offensive operations inside an international framework going beyond a national framework.  Shape international rules allowing the nation-state to pursue its political preferences.  Best done with other countries pursuing analogous political goals.  Sovereignty shifts from defensive, passive instrument to offensive. Active tool – maybe new word needed.

8. The shift.  The era of plenty gives way to the era of scarcity.  Water, energy, food, raw materials.  Burden sharing lurking just around the corner  The world is totally unprepared

9. Asia.  Asia as a powerhouse, but short of resources  The global system needs new impetus – who will provide it?  The temptation of regionalization.  How will Asia play its hand in transition of power?  China-India-Japan a balanced triangle or a Bermuda triangle?  Can Asia maintain peace in Asia?