1. Sweden’s national emission projection system and the SCAC research program TFEIP, Milan, Italy Tomas Gustafsson, Karin Kindbom 12 May 2015

2. Sweden’s national emission projection system TFEIP, 12 May 2015 Overview  Introduction  National system for GHG emission projections  Air pollutant emission projections  Swedish Clean Air and Climate (SCAC) research program  Key areas for improvements

3. Sweden’s national emission projection system TFEIP, 12 May 2015 Introduction  Emission projections play an important role in Sweden’s development of national and international air quality and climate policies and measures  Present national system for emission projections mainly supports the needs for GHG emission projections, and to a lesser extent air pollutant emission projections  There is a need for one coordinated national system of GHG and air pollutant emission projections in Sweden

4. Sweden’s national emission projection system TFEIP, 12 May 2015 Introduction  Sweden reports projections of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions to EU, UNFCCC and air pollutant emission projections to EU and CLRTAP  Up to 2014, data flows have mostly been non-regulated agreements  As of 2015, national ordinance to establish and secure data flows between national agencies in accordance with EU MMR (GHG only)

5. Sweden’s national emission projection system TFEIP, 12 May 2015 National system for GHG emission projections Transport Administration, Transport Analysis, Transport Agency MoEE EPA EU, UNFCCC Energy Agency Consultants SMED Industries, Trade associations, National experts Profu (MARKAL) National Institute of Economic Research Board of Agriculture Regulated in Ordinance Data Meeting, expertise

6. Sweden’s national emission projection system TFEIP, 12 May 2015 National system for GHG emission projections  Consultants (consortium SMED) performs part of the emission projection calculations on behalf of Swedish EPA –IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, –Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), –Statistics Sweden (SCB), –the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).

7. Sweden’s national emission projection system TFEIP, 12 May 2015 Air pollutant emission projections  Mainly based on the same AD projections/assumptions as for GHG emission projections  In most cases developed by SMED –Road traffic emission projections produced by the Swedish Transport Administration  EF projections developed by SMED to ensure time- series consistency and competence  Not fully integrated with national GAINS projection estimation process.

8. Sweden’s national emission projection system TFEIP, 12 May 2015 Swedish Clean Air and Climate (SCAC) research program  Overall objective: To develop and improve the scientific basis for air pollution policies on national and international scales  WP2:3 - develop a ‘Conceptual emission projection and scenario model’ for both GHG and air pollutants –Systematic methods and processes –Present and future needs –Sensitivity analysis (e.g. as tool for improvements)  Stakeholder analyses with key experts at e.g. EPA, County boards, Transport Agency, Energy Agency, SMED, etc

9. Sweden’s national emission projection system TFEIP, 12 May 2015 Conceptual model Projections and scenarios for emissions of GHG and air pollutants Stakeholders Swedish EPA Swedish Energy Agency Swedish Transport Agency SMED etc Documentation - Preconditions -Assumptions -Limitations - Data - Methods - Calculations/models - Uncertainties Projections National Regional - Energy Transport Industrial processes Agriculture Waste LULUCF - Activity Activity data Technologies Emission factors Emissions Preconditions EU/UN requirements National goals National PaMs Uses/users International Conventions EU National monitoring Basis for national strategies Support negotiations Regional use Stakeholder analyses Sensitivity analysis Stakeholders/Models/ Assumptions Description of: Data and information flow Cooperation Procedures for: -QA/QC -documentation -validation/assessment /review Analysis of user needs

10. Sweden’s national emission projection system TFEIP, 12 May 2015 SCAC stakeholder analyses/ Key areas for improvements  Coordination of workflow, assumptions and other information for GHG and air pollutants emission projections –Build on the present GHG system and create added value for air pollutants  Collect and make use of experiences, to improve quality and build new projections based on analysis of previous  More accessible and usable emission projections by improved and “the right” documentation of data, assumptions and limitations

11. Sweden’s national emission projection system TFEIP, 12 May 2015 SCAC stakeholder analyses/ Key areas for improvements  Better knowledge and integration of information on future technology development  More harmonized road transportation projections  Avoid bottlenecks in the work process  Better integration with GAINS model estimations to be able to interpret the differences in results  Development of emission projections/scenarios for other purposes than international reporting (e.g. regional projections)

12. Sweden’s national emission projection system TFEIP, 12 May 2015 SCAC stakeholder analyses/ Key areas for improvements  Improved QA/QC (at least: lift air pollutants to the same level as GHGs), –for credibility, robustness, etc.  Sensitivity analysis, as a tool –to identify important assumptions/variables for improvement –to investigate if the process/modelling can be streamlined –for improved communication of results

13. Sweden’s national emission projection system TFEIP, 12 May 2015 SCAC…lessons learned  Very fruitful and enlightening (for all!) to have important stakeholders in one room for discussions –Promotes (necessary) mutual understanding –Some Aha! moments –For example.. –Energy agency, having a GHG-focus, realized the importance of small scale biomass combustion activity data for air pollutants, while practically negligible for GHG emissions –GHG projections people realized the importance of technologies and abatement measures for air pollutant emission EFs

14. Thank you for your attention! Contacts: Tomas Gustafsson: tomas.gustafsson@ivl.setomas.gustafsson@ivl.se Karin Kindbom: karin.kindbom@ivl.sekarin.kindbom@ivl.se Information about the SCAC research program: www.scac.sewww.scac.se (in English)