1. © Crown copyright Met Office WGNE activities and plans Andy Brown and Christian Jakob WGNE co-chairs

2. © Crown copyright Met Office Role of WGNE Working Group on Numerical Experimentation Jointly established by the WCRP and the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) Responsibility of fostering the development of atmospheric circulation models for use in weather prediction and climate studies on all time scales and diagnosing and resolving shortcomings. A distillation of the Terms of Reference….. Advice, liaison Co-ordinated experiments Workshops, publications, meetings

3. © Crown copyright Met Office Liaison

4. © Crown copyright Met Office WWRP: YOTC/MJO, grey-zone project with Mesoscale WG, Joint Working Group on Verification THORPEX: PDP workshops, DAOS WGCM : Transpose-AMIP, metrics, model errors GEWEX (GCSS, GABLS, GLASS): MJO, grey-zone SPARC and WGSIP: stratospheric modelling? model errors? Operational centre reports and progress reviews

5. © Crown copyright Met Office Co-ordinated experiments and projects

6. © Crown copyright Met Office Transpose-AMIP GOOD PROGRESS SURFA DATA FROM MORE CENTRES Grey-zone NEW Cloudy-radiance DONE High resolution AMIP ? Verification NWP performance (eg TCs, precipitation) ONGOING Polar (CBS-style; ConcordIASI intercomparsion) NEW Climate metrics GOOD PROGRESS

7. © Crown copyright Met Office Transpose-AMIP: testing climate models in NWP mode Core experiment is to run 64 hindcasts, each 5 days long, initialised from ECMWF YOTC analysis. Optional experiment to repeat the same set of hindcasts with NASA MERRA re-analysis or own analysis. The hindcasts spread through the annual and diurnal cycles and chosen to tie in with YOTC and coincide with some of the IOPs in: VOCALS (SE Pacific stratocumulus) AMY (Asian monsoon) T-PARC (mid-latitude Pacific) 9 centres committed to submit data

8. www.transpose-amip.info © Crown copyright Met Office Proposed diagnostic subprojects MJO dynamics in the Transpose-AMIP II hindcasts: (PI: Mitch Moncrieff) Water budget analysis (PI: Gill Martin) Comparison of methodologies (initial tendency using own analysis vs 5-day forecast using alien analysis) (PI: Mark Rodwell) Cloud regimes (PI: Keith Williams) Intense extra-tropical windstorms (PI: Peter Knippertz) Relationship between short and long timescale model errors (PI: Shaocheng Xie) Regional investigation into model tendencies (PI: TBD) VOCALS analysis (PI: TBD) 2009 SE Asian monsoon analysis (PI: TBD) More desirable – valuable database to be used alongside TIGGE etc. PDP interest?

9. © Crown copyright Met Office SURFA Real-time provision of ECMWF and DWD data for several years Within last year, JMA, Meteo- France data added for 2008 and 2009 Ge Peng et al, A comparison of various equatorial Pacific surface wind products. For submission to GRL.

10. © Crown copyright Met Office Planned comparison of models with buoy and cruise flux data (Chris Fairall) STRATUS/DART2 buoys, Chilean coast (+ cruise data) NTASN. Atlantic Trade wind (+cruises planned) WHOTSHawaii (+cruises planned) KEOKuroshio Extension PAPANW Pacific

11. Cloudy infrared radiances: Intercomparison exercise Sponsored by ISSWG and WGNE Coordinators: Lydie Lavanant, Florence Rabier Contributors: Arlindo Arriaga, Thomas August, Sylvain Cros, Nadia Fourrié, Antonia Gambacorta, Sylvain Heilliette, Fiona Hilton, Min-Jeong Kim, Tony McNally, Hidenori Nishihata, Ed Pavelin, Ben Ruston, Claudia Stubenrauch

12. 12 Comparison of IASI Cloud Products for cloudy radiance assimilation Rationale: IASI data for temperature and humidity sounding are now assimilated in clear conditions at many operational meteorological centres. However, a large amount of situations, more than 80% on the whole globe, are covered by clouds. The first step is to detect and characterize the clouds in the footprint of the sounder. Experimental settings: All methods are applied to a 12-h global acquisition on 18 Nov. 2009.

13. 13 First results over the globe The grey color corresponds to clear situations or undetermined cloud heights. The main meteorological structures have been retrieved by all the schemes but the cloud heights can be very different.

14. © Crown copyright Met Office Grey zone project

15. © Crown copyright Met Office How to parametrize physical processes in the “grey-zone” (1-10km)? Of interest to Operational mesoscale NWP Many already running at resolutions of a few km but room for more systematic testing to complement existing assessments of parametrization choices? Future global models What to do as global models enter this range? Regional climate models

16. © Crown copyright Met Office 12/10/00 flood event Peak rainfall rates within 60x60km squares over 12 hours 4km gridlength forecasts 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 mm/hour No convection scheme With convection scheme CAPE dependent  Too high Too low Closer to radar 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 mm/hour 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 mm/hour Example of testing of existing 4km convection closure

17. © Crown copyright Met Office Convection closure 4km CAPE limited CAPE closure 1.5km No convection scheme Both models add significant value to coarser models (surface forcing; shower advection) Convection decisions based on case-studies / verification scores Role for idealized work to supplement case study / verification work (metrics need care)

18. © Crown copyright Met Office Proposed case: cold-air outbreak Designed to be relevant to and to engage as broad a range of communities as possible Mesoscale modellers Global modellers LES/CRM/parametrization development community (GCSS) Case to be run across whole range of resolutions (from convection resolved to fully parametrized) Back diagnose fluxes at different resolutions from high resolution ‘truth’ Idealized case with periodic boundary conditions Looking at parallel inflow-outflow option for mesoscale models for which the above is difficult

19. © Crown copyright Met Office CONSTRAIN: Cold air outbreak 31 Jan 2010

20. © Crown copyright Met Office 1.5 kmGlobal CeresMODIS

21. © Crown copyright Met Office Dx=333m 333kmx167km

22. © Crown copyright Met Office Aside: Interest also for existing global models (weather and climate) Williams et al Illingworth et al. ISCCP analysis Cloudnet

23. © Crown copyright Met Office Workshops, publications, meetings

24. © Crown copyright Met Office WGNE-THORPEX PDP  Joint expert meeting on “Diagnosis of Forecast Errors” held in Zurich, July 2010  State of the art models still suffer from substantial errors  Diagnostic work (+dynamical expertize) has potential to inform developers at process level to guide development  Future activities on application of diagnostic techniques to monsoon problems and cyclonic systems  ECMWF/Met Office working together on monsoon and planning to extend invitation, through WGNE, for input from other centres when work sufficiently mature  WGNE/PDP/ECMWF workshop on model error, June 2011

25. © Crown copyright Met Office Other forthcoming meetings  YOTC Science Symposium (Beijing, May 2011)  Annual WGNE meeting (NCAR, October 2011)  Joint session with WGCM  Physics of weather/climate models (JPL, Spring 2012)  With WWRP, WCRP partners  Oceans for NWP (2012?)  Planning joint workshop with GODAE/OceanView to look at current knowledge of pros/cons of ocean coupling for NWP, and consider need for co-ordinated experimentation  Aerosol/chemistry for NWP (2013?)  As above for question of what level of aerosol/chemistry is necessary for NWP. Need to engage with GAW community.  WGNE systematic errors meeting (2013?)

26. © Crown copyright Met Office Summary  WGNE hosts a wide range of activities in support of model evaluation and development.  Enhanced collaboration with WWRP/THORPEX.  Meso-scale group, THORPEX PDP and DAOS, YOTC, JWGV,...  Enhanced links to WCRP (SPARC, WGCM, WGSIP)  Model and DA development remains at the heart of better forecasts at all ranges and needs to remain a high priority!

27. © Crown copyright Met Office Membership changes Outgoing Pedro Silva Dias Pierre Gaultier Jim Hack Martin Miller Proposed new members Julio Bacmeister Saulo Freitas Jean-Noel Thepaut Ayrton Zadra Proposed ex-officio membership WWRP Mesoscale WG Chair (Jeanette Onvlee)

28. © Crown copyright Met Office Questions?