1. Global energy shift Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Dean, International Energy Business Department Doctor of Economics, Professor Russian University of Oil and Gas The Baltic Forum, 25-26 October 2013

2. Regional GDP growth, World Bank 2013 * % of change 2013 to 2012 Russia 2,3 % (-1,1%)* USA 2,0 % -0,2%)* Japan 1,4 % (-0,6%)* China 7,7 % (-0,1%)* EU -0,6% (-0,1%)* Latin America 3,3 % (+0,3%)* (+0,4%)* (+0,1%)* (-0,2%)* (-1,0%)* (+0,5%)* World GDP 2013 2,2% (-0,1%)

3. Gas slows down but still expands its role Global gas consumption grows at 100 bcm/year Gas is growing faster than oil at 2,4%/year but continues to fall behind coal Transportation emerges as a major demand accounting for 10% of gas demand growth driven by China and United States Medium-term Oil Market Balance

4. Global shale gas basins, top reserve holders

5. World Shale Deposits

6. US Shale Fields Proven resources- 24 tcm

7. Shale gas in US gas production, tcf per year

8. US oil shale production will increase to 1,9 mbd in 2016 US oil shale production

9. Top 10 countries with technically recoverable shale oil resources Top 10 countries with technically recoverable shale gas resources RankCountryShale oil (bbl) RankCountryShale gas ( tcf) 1Russia751China1,115 2US*58 (48)*2Argentina802 3China323Algeria707 4Argentina274US*665 (1,161) 5Libya265Canada573 6Venezuela136Mexico545 7Mexico137Australia437 8Pakistan98South Africa390 9Canada99Russia285 10Indonesia810Brazil245 World Total345 (335)World Total7 299 (7795) *EIA estimates used for ranking order. API estimates in parenthesis

10. US shale oil breakeven prices

11. Shale gas basins in Europe

12. Shale gas reserves Shale gas Reserves 2012 Production Banned Allowed Production possible. but under discussion

13. Цены на газ в США стремительно падают Подробнее: http://investfuture.ru/articles/id/4737http://investfuture.ru/articles/id/4737 Цены на газ в США стремительно падают Подробнее: http://investfuture.ru/articles/id/4737http://investfuture.ru/articles/id/4737 Цены на газ в США стремительно падают Подробнее: http://investfuture.ru/articles/id/4737http://investfuture.ru/articles/id/4737 US gas prices decreasing Finmarket.ru $/th cm $/bl Gas, Indonesia Gas, USA Gazprom-Europe Brent

14. pricesforecast Credit Suisse

15. Unconventional gas in Russia 83 700 tcm of CBM (coal bed methane) Lena Basin Irkutsk Basin South Yakutia Zaryan Basin Eastern Donbass Pechora Basin Kuzbass Tungus Basin Talnyr Basin

16. PWC 2013 Change in current account balance as % of GDP in alternative oil price scenarios

17. Production Costs, US$/bl OIL Conventional Oil10-40 Secondary production20-80 Deep sea40-65 Arctic shelf40-100 Heavy oil, oil sands40-80 Oil shale50-100 US$/thousand cm GAS Conventional gas20-210 Unconventional gas (shale, CBM, tight gas)100-320 Sulphur gas110-360 Arctic shelf140-430 Deep sea180-390 Costs of oil and gas production IEA WEO

18. Projects in advanced stage could transform the US into the №3 LNG exporter (after Qatar and Australia) IEA

19. Thank you!