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Historic Descent or Global Civilization? Expert Group Meeting UN Headquarters November 19, 2007 Climate, Development, and Planetary Transition
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Time Indicators of development Stabilization Take-off Acceleration Phases of Transition
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Historical Transitions Early Civilization c. 10,000 years 20,000 10,000 0 Years Before Present Planetary Phase c. 100 years ? Modern Era c. 1,000 years Stone Age c. 100,000 years Complexity
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Accelerated Transitions 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 Years Before Present Stone Age Early Civilization Modern Era Planetary Phase
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10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 Years Before Present Tribe City-state Nation Planet Social Organization
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10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 Years Before Present Hunting & gathering Settled agriculture Industrial capitalism Economic Basis Globalization
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10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 Years Before Present Language Writing Printing Internet Communication
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Global Connectivity 1950 2000 2050 Take-off 1980- Planetary Transition Global environmental change Information technology Collapse of USSR, hegemony of capitalism WTO, multinationals, Davos Man Earth Summit, NGOs, Seattle Woman
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Branch Points SCENARIOS Sources of Uncertainty Ignorance Surprise Volition
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An Integrated View
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Conventional Worlds Barbarization Great Transitions Global Scenarios policy reform market forces breakdown fortress world new sustainability eco-communalism
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Risky Bequest
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Barbarization Environment Inequity Resentment Conflict Xenophobia
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Bending the Curve Peace 2060Major Conflicts1980 30 2020 Freedom 2060 Social Equity 1980 1 2020 Development 20601980 1 billion 2020 Hunger 20601980 CO 2 ( ppm) 550 2020 300 2060 4.5 billion 20201980 Forests (ha) 3 20601980 5 billion 2020 People in stress ClimateEcosystemsWater
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Limits of the Reform Path Policy Reform is feasible, in principle – the necessary technologies and policies are available But daunting, in practice – gradually bending highly unsustainable trends imposes immense challenges The critical uncertainty – where would the political will come from? Reform may not be enough…..
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New Sustainability Paradigm Quality of life Human solidarity Ecological sensibility A values-led scenario A pluralistic scenario
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Proximate and Ultimate Drivers Ultimate Drivers Knowledge and Understanding Power Structure Culture Values and Needs Proximate Drivers PopulationEconomyTechnologyGovernance
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Tools for Transitions Market Forces Policy Reform Great Transition well-being consumption throughput dematerialization wedge lifestyle wedge rich poor poverty spring equity magnet
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Dimensions of Transition ValuesKnowledgeDemographicSocialEconomicGovernanceTechnology
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Change Agents Intergovernmental organizations Transnational corporations Civil society An aware and engaged public
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The future is always present, as a promise and a lure. Karl Popper Which world do we want?
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