1. Historic Descent or Global Civilization? Expert Group Meeting UN Headquarters November 19, 2007 Climate, Development, and Planetary Transition

2. Overview The Planetary Phase Transitions Scenarios The Great Transition

3. Earthland the world as a single country! Dualistic, diverse, unequal, weakly governed, unable to act collectively even in the face of clear and present danger. And dangers there are plenty!

4. Title Body text Earth’s Shrinking Biosphere 1900-2000 AD The Earth is the only home we have. With each new person added to our growing population, the amount of our living space decreases. Land Area hectare per/capita

6. Tipping Points

8. An Illustration South AfricaEarthland WhiteBlackNorthSouth Share of Population (%)19.180.91581 Land Allocation8713 Share of Income (%)76<2077.220.52 Ratio of average earnings14120.51 Movement restrictionsNoyesFewMany Ownership restrictionsNoyesNo Right to due processYesrestrictedYesHmmm …..

10. Growth or Catastrophe We don’t know how to live without growth: –It is our only sure recipe for overcoming the grotesque global inequality –No country, howsoever rich, knows how to survive without it We will not live if growth continues on its existing pattern, because it leads to ecological destruction

11. The South Commission Were all humanity a single nation-state, the present North-South divide would make it an unviable, semi-feudal entity, split by internal conflicts. Its small part is advanced, prosperous, powerful; its much bigger part is underdeveloped, poor, powerless. A nation so divided within itself would be recognized as unstable. A world so divided should likewise be recognized as unstable. And the position is worsening, not improving.

12. Six billion characters… [for you] whatever is a reality today, whatever you touch and believe in and that seems real for you today, is going to be – like the reality of yesterday – an illusion tomorrow…. But [our reality] doesn't change! Do you see? That's the difference! Ours doesn't change, it can't change, it can never be different, never, because it is already determined, like this, for ever, that's what's so terrible! We are an eternal reality.

13. Earthland: Imagined Community Globalization and Nationalism –Language, trade, travel Nationalism and Identity –Falk: Stewards, Activists, Entrepreneurs, Visionaries In the beginning, there is death

14. The beginning is like a god Silent Spring 1962 Thirteen Days 1962 The Population Bomb 1968 Tragedy of the Commons 1968 The Closing Circle 1971 Limits to Growth 1972 The Shallow and the Deep 1972 Stockholm UNCHE 1972 First poster of the blue planet 1972

15. Earth was the Ever Forgiving Mother

16. Now its the Unforgiving Child

17. What Difference a Color Makes I was terrified by its fragile appearance. (Ulf Merbold, Germany). The atmosphere almost looks like an eggshell on an egg, it's so very thin. We know that we don't have much air, we need to protect what we have. (Eileen Collins, USA) That beautiful, warm, living object looked so fragile, so delicate, that if you touched it with a finger it would crumble and fall apart. (James Irwin, USA) The first day or so we all pointed to our countries. The third day we were pointing to our continents. By the fourth day we were only aware of one Earth. (Bin Salman aI-Saud, Saudi Arabia)

18. But Some Havent Heard Yet in 30,000 words, only 30 (that is correct, 30), recognize that we now live in a unified world, “There is no longer division between what is foreign and what is domestic—the world economy, the world environment, the world AIDS crisis, the world arms race—they affect us all”. “environment” mentioned exactly once. a few references (all after 1992) to trade and technology. Every President until JFK mentions the UN as a hope for the future -- but none thereafter. aid mentioned positively in half the speeches (generally as charity from a great hearted nation)

19. An Integrated View

21. Branch Points SCENARIOS Sources of Uncertainty Ignorance Surprise Volition

22. Time Indicators of development Stabilization Take-off Acceleration Phases of Transition

23. Historical Transitions Early Civilization c. 10,000 years 20,000 10,000 0 Years Before Present Planetary Phase c. 100 years ? Modern Era c. 1,000 years Stone Age c. 100,000 years Complexity

24. Accelerated Transitions 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 Years Before Present Stone Age Early Civilization Modern Era Planetary Phase

25. 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 Years Before Present Tribe City-state Nation Planet Social Organization

26. 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 Years Before Present Hunting & gathering Settled agriculture Industrial capitalism Economic Basis Globalization

27. 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 Years Before Present Language Writing Printing Internet Communication

28. Global Connectivity 1950 2000 2050 Take-off 1980- Planetary Transition  Global environmental change  Information technology  Collapse of USSR, hegemony of capitalism  WTO, multinationals, “Davos Man”  Earth Summit, NGOs, “Seattle Woman”

29. But Where are we Going? From the Age of Plenty to the Age of Limits The political economy of limits Human solidarity and individual action

30. Conventional Worlds Barbarization Great Transitions Global Scenarios policy reform market forces breakdown fortress world new sustainability eco-communalism

31. Risky Bequest

32. Barbarization Environment Inequity Resentment Conflict Xenophobia

33. Bending the Curve Peace 2060Major Conflicts1980 30 2020 Freedom 2060 Social Equity 1980 1 2020 Development 20601980 1 billion 2020 Hunger 20601980 CO 2 ( ppm) 550 2020 300 2060 4.5 billion 20201980 Forests (ha) 3 20601980 5 billion 2020 People in stress ClimateEcosystemsWater

34. Limits of the Reform Path Policy Reform is feasible, in principle – the necessary technologies and policies are available But daunting, in practice – gradually bending highly unsustainable trends imposes immense challenges The critical uncertainty – where would the political will come from? Reform may not be enough…..

35. The Great Transition Quality of life Human solidarity Ecological sensibility A values-led scenario A pluralistic scenario

36. Proximate and Ultimate Drivers Ultimate Drivers Knowledge and Understanding Power Structure Culture Values and Needs Proximate Drivers PopulationEconomyTechnologyGovernance

37. Tools for Transitions Market Forces Policy Reform Great Transition well-being consumption throughput dematerialization wedge lifestyle wedge rich poor poverty spring equity magnet

38. Dimensions of Transition ValuesKnowledgeDemographicSocialEconomicGovernanceTechnology

39. Change Agents Intergovernmental organizations Transnational corporations Civil society An aware and engaged public

40. The future is always present, as a promise and a lure. Karl Popper Which world do we want?