1. ESA Activities in Space Weather
A. Glover1, E. Daly1, R. Marsden2
Space Environments and Effects Section, D/TEC,ESA/ESTEC.
Research and Scientific Support Department D/Sci,ESA/ESTEC
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

2. Overview Background and Scope within ESA
D/TEC, D/Sci, D/HME, D/Ops, D/EOP, Galileo
Space Weather Applications Initiative
SWENET Status and Achievements
Space Situational Awareness
Related Activities – SEENoTC
Next Steps
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

3. Space Weather
Definition: "conditions on the sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere,
ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and
reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and
can endanger human life or health."
Some Space Weather Effects..
Satellites affected by radiation, plasma, atmosphere, particulates;
Astronauts - ISS, future exploration missions;
Radiation hazards to air crew and avionics;
Ground power outages from currents induced in lines;
Disruption to communications relying on the ionosphere;
Disruption of navigation satellite signals (GPS - Galileo);
Prospecting;
Climate;
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

4. Space Weather Interests within ESA
ESA is interested in space weather as both a provider and user of space weather data
Pre-mission space environment analysis and recommendations for operational procedures carried out at ESTEC (D/TEC)
Operational use of space weather data and services in support of ESA missions at ESOC & ESAC (D/Ops) with ESTEC support
New data generated by ESA missions, either as primary goal or in the form of radiation monitor data
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

5. Science Missions Supporting Space Weather Interests
SOHO extension to 2009, plus bonus mission
Cluster extension until 2008
Double star extended to 2007
Ulysses, 3rd polar pass extension until 2008
Ulysses
Radiation Monitors onboard XMM, Integral
and Rosetta spacecraft also provide valuable
Information on the local space environment
Soho
Cluster & Double Star
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

6. Upcoming Missions Radiation monitors: Herschel, Planck, LPF …
Solar Orbiter (2015)
BepiColombo (2013)
Cross-Scale Multiscale Coupling in Space Plasmas mission selected by SSAC Oct ‘07 as Cosmic Vision candidate mission
Proba 2 (2008) SWAP and LYRA payloads
Radiation monitors:
Herschel,
Planck, LPF …
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

7. Earth Observation
SWARM: Magnetic Field Mission (launch: , lifetime 5yrs)
Core dynamics and geodynamo processes
3-D electrical conductivity of the mantle
Aims to monitor and separate the various contributions to the Earth’s magnetic field including disturbances:
Magnetospheric and ionospheric currents
Electromagnetic forcing of the upper atmosphere
MetOp
Carries SEM-2 radiation monitor
Inclined sun synchronous orbit, 817km
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

8. Galileo
Radiation environment will be harsh as the constellation will fly through the heart of the radiation belts
Signal propagation effects caused by the ionosphere
Giove-A radiation environment monitors
Merlin, CEDEX
energetic proton and ion detectors, an internal charging monitor, RADFETs and experimental dose-rate photodiodes
Giove-B (launch 2008) will carry SREM environment monitor
Galileo IOV will carry radiation monitors
Full constellation still tbc
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

9. Manned Spaceflight Support to ISS
Ops collaboration between EAC and NASA/JSC
DESIRE R&D project to characterise environment
in Columbus module
Study of radiation environment key driver in
development of exploration missions
R and D studies looking towards radiation
protection for exploration
REMSIM: Radiation Exposure and Mission
Strategies for Interplanetary Manned Missions
SEPEM: Improved statistical models and
new physics-based modelling of the helio-radial
variation
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

10. The ESA Space Weather Applications Initiative
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

11. 1996: ESA Round Table on Space Weather
1998: FMI report on space weather capabilities in Europe
1998: First ESA Space Weather Workshop
: Feasibility studies of Space Weather Programme
2000: Setting up of Space Weather Working Team (SWWT)
2001: Submission of programme initiative to ESA management
2001: Start preparation of ESA-SWAPP, COST724
2003: ESA SWAPP starts
2003: COST 724 starts
2004: First European Space Weather Week
2007: Where we stand now
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

12. The Space Weather Applications Pilot Project
Sample the market for space weather services
Development of a range of individual pilot services (SDAs) built on user requirements plus a supporting network structure and portal.
~5MEuro investment (2MEuro from ESA/GSP)
Questions: users?, valuable services?, need for specific space elements?, value of coordinated approach?, organisational requirements…?
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

13. Service Demonstration: SWENET
Independent Cost and Benefit Assessment
Ionospheric Effects:
12 SDAs…
SWENET: Network and support architecture for SDAs
Ground Effects:
12 SDAs…
Spacecraft & Aircraft Effects:
6 SDAs…
Space Weather European NETwork
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

14. Infrastructure Capabilities
Centralised access to a wide range of user driven space weather services and data
Central access point to the pilot project SDAs
Large data repository
Capability to search and combine data from different sources
Graphical display and data analysis tools
Overview of the latest SDA data and space weather indices
Daily reports, alerts and data sets via
Approximate distribution of active users:
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

15. SWENET Perspective
ESA/GSP support for service development concluded 2006
Majority of SDA services have identified funding for service continuation to
SWENET Portal maintenance and validation phase continuing
Inclusion of new SDAs
Validation of new data and services: demonstration of added value
Improvement of data analysis via portal capabilities
Consultation with SDA community on future requirements
Usage statistics (Based on Jan – Jul 2007):
4000 visitors/month
50,000 pages served (not including search engines)
SDA community continue to meet and collaborate. Next SWENET meeting Splinter 1 this afternoon
Coordination with national activities and other groups e.g. ISES, COST 724, COST 296, NOAA/SEC (now SWPC), ILWS End Users Task Group…
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

16. Benefit Data By Industry
Growth indicated by industry
note airlines included in ionospheric & consequently strong increase in benefit when automated landing taken up
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

17. Net Benefit Trends LoS1: relies on continued GB
Networks and provides mainly
Nowcasts.
LoS3: Has low external
Dependencies, is more costly,
Provides forecasts and
Ultimately larger benefits.
LoS2: Potentially high benefits
But also high risks.
Permanent hitch-hiker solution
c.f. GOES/SEM Arrangement
could reduce
risks
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

18. Strategic Issues
impacts of SW on Europe’s strategic space assets (Galileo, GMES, telecoms EO..)
impacts of SW on European space infrastructure (launch, environment monitoring (including situational awareness), manned spaceflight)
impacts on social infrastructure and economy (energy supply and distribution, emergency relief systems)
Security issues (HF comms and radar) ….
These benefits difficult to quantify but report notes space weather services have both potential economic and strategic benefit for Europe
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

19. Space Situational Awareness
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

20. Framework/Context
Space Situation Awareness is a concept that has grown out of the increasing dependence of the modern world on space systems – telecom, navigation, surveillance, etc.
Concept originates with US military – but civilian systems (particularly in Europe) are just as susceptible – Europe needs to develop both policy and capacity.
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

21. Motivation for action on Space Weather
Recent initiatives have revealed both space weather needs and skills bases in Europe
Development of a more coordinated European approach could be used to strengthen international cooperation & exchange on basis of partnership.
At the same time there is a perceived need to build a European framework in the context of Space Situational Awareness.
Space weather is seen as one of three axes for Space Situational Awareness :
Survey, Tracking,
Imaging
Space weather (space environment monitoring)
At present it is proposed to introduce at the next ESA Ministerial Council an ESA Optional Programme for Space Situational Awareness which may include an element of space weather
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

22. Possible Content
Develop an ESA-led space weather initiative, including the establishment of a European Centre for Space Weather Services as part of an optional Space Situational Awareness programme
The initiative would aim to:
Provide a focal point for coordinating ongoing European activities of the kind initiated in the framework of the Space Weather Applications Pilot Project and SWENET
Provide a stable nucleus for the development, testing and deployment of future space weather services in Europe
Proposal in preparation
Ongoing community consultation process
See splinter meeting on Wednesday afternoon 14:00
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

23. Space Environments and Effects Network of Technical Competences (SEENoTC)
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

24. Overview of SEENoTC Responsibilities
Goals:
to reinforce the coordination of existing and planned space environments and effects related activities in Europe,
implementation of a coherent European programme of activities in the domain,
Domain:
energetic particle radiation and its effects on systems, payloads and humans;
natural and induced plasma environments and their interactions with spacecraft, and resulting effects on systems and payloads
Explicitly excluded are space debris, micrometeoroid and thermal environments.
Explicitly included are space weather effects on spacecraft
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

25. Organisation Working Group Steering Board
National representatives responsible for collecting inputs from communities
Responsible for drawing up roadmaps and identifying areas for coordination and financial support
SWWT Chairman is a member of the WG, responsible for making recommendations from this community
Steering Board
National representatives from agencies and funding bodies
Approve roadmaps annually
Supports activities that build on the main coordination goals of the network
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

26. Summary
Space weather interests a broad cross section of ESA from missions geared to furthering our understanding of underlying phenomena through to protecting ESA spacecraft from its effects
The SWENET network provides an operational network of user-oriented space weather services
Clear evidence of interest from industry
Input on future requirements solicited from SDA community
Cost and benefit analysis indicates significant potential growth in the market for space weather services in several areas
Strong community support for maintaining SWENET demonstrated at ESWWs
Work in progress in the area of Space Situational Awareness
Scope for coordination of activities geared towards space weather effects on spacecraft via the SEENoTC
National activities developing: e.g. in France, Germany, Belgium, Spain…
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

27. Next Steps Short Term: Longer Term:
Next meeting of SWENET community: Splinter 1 this afternoon
Next consultation meeting on SSA: Splinter 3 Wednesday
Longer Term:
Work will continue on an SSA proposal into 2008
ESA to further investigate how to build on successful outcome of the space weather applications pilot project
In parallel, ESA’s normal R and D programmes will continue to support space environment related applications activities.
Continue and expand policy of flying radiation monitors on ESA s/c, ensuring processing and full exploitation of these data
Continued collaboration with other national and international space weather initiatives
ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007