1. PRC MILITARY MODERNIZATION
Dave Finkelstein — Vice President, Center for Naval Analyses
& Director, CNA China Studies

2. POINT 1
THE OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES THE CHINESE ARMED FORCES ARE DISPLAYING TODAY ARE THE FRUITS OF FUNDAMENTAL DECISIONS, PLANS, AND PROGRAMS PUT INTO PLACE 18 YEARS AGO.

3. FORMER CCP SECRETARY GENERAL JIANG ZEMIN
1993: THE WATERSHED YEAR
“MILITARY STRATEGIC GUIDELINES FOR THE NEW PERIOD”
PROGRAMMATIC BLUEPRINT FOR LONG-TERM MODERNIZATION OF PLA
CAPABILITIES-BASED
&
CONTINGENCYBASED
FORMER CCP SECRETARY GENERAL JIANG ZEMIN

4. CAPABILITIES-BASED ASSESSMENT
GALVANIZING IMPACT OF DESERT STORM
ENDS PLA DEBATES ABOUT TECHNOLOGY & REFORM
LESSONS OF KOSOVO, AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, CHECHNYA, CYBER ATTACKS ON ESTONIA, GEORGIA
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS IN 2002 & 2004

5. BUILD A PLA TO FIGHT THIS KIND OF WAR
“LOCAL WARS UNDER MODERN INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS”
LIMITED POLITICAL OBJECTIVES & GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE
SHORT IN DURATION BUT DECISIVE IN OUTCOME
HIGH-INTENSITY OPERATIONS TEMPO
LOGISTICS-INTENSIVE
C4ISR & NEAR-TOTAL BATTLE SPACE AWARENESS
OPERATIONS IN ALL BATTLE SPACE DIMENSIONS
NON-LINEAR OPERATIONS & VULNERABLE REAR AREAS
PRE-EMINANCE OF JOINT SERVICE OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGNS

6. CONTINGENCY-BASED ASSESSEMENT
MSD
LITTORAL /MARITIME CONCERNS “MAIN STRATEGIC DIRECTION”

7. PREPARE FOR “LOCAL WAR UNDER INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS”
“MAIN STRATEGIC DIRECTION ” & “IMPORTANT STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS”
New Data from D.J.
from Dennis 23 Oct 09 Dave and friends, the SCMP article Scot passed around is derived from the two articles I sent to Dave yesterday (below, both having the same content, one in English and the other in Chinese from PLA Daily). The sentence "Northwest China
is China’s important strategic direction " "西北是我国重要战略方向"caught my eye. My question is how does the "northwest" compare to th "southeast (Taiwan/SCS)" in terms of strategic direction? We had Considered the "southeast" as the "main strategic direction" based on changes in the 90s. Now with cross-strait tensions lessening and the rise of Islamic extremism, separatism, and terrorrism in the northwest (the "three evils") are we seeing the beginning of a change in the "main strategic direction"? I assume you guys have researched the term "重要战略方向" more than I have and can compare this useage to previous references. Dennis
Liang Guanglie: to boost innovative development of national defense mobilization construction
Liang Guanglie, member of the Central Military Commission (CMC), state councilor and defense minister, stressed at the 5th plenary meeting of the National Defense Mobilization Committee of the Lanzhou Military Area Command (MAC) of the PLA that the surrounding environment and the conditions for national defense mobilization construction are seeing profound changes in the new century and the new period, the national defense mobilization
System must hold high the great banner of the socialism with Chinese characteristics, stick to the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory and the important thought of the “Three Represents”, implement the scientific outlook on development in a deep-going way and constantly boost the innovative development of national defense mobilization construction.
In Shaanxi Province, Liang Guanglie listened to the reports of Shaanxi Province and Yan’an City on national defense mobilization. In Gansu Province, Liang Guanglie went to militia companies to learn situations on infrastructure building. In Qinghai Province, Liang Guanglie watched video on national defense mobilization construction of five provinces
(autonomous regions) in Northwest China and viewed and emulated the research-oriented exercise of Qinghai Province’s national defense mobilization system in implementing stability-maintenance action. Liang Guanglie fully affirmed
The achievements obtained by the Lanzhou Theatre in national defense mobilization construction and urged the national defense mobilization departments at all levels to further enhance the awareness of unexpected development and mission and try to form strong mobilization ability commensurate with maintaining the security and stability of Northwest
China.
Liang Guanglie pointed out that Northwest China is China’s important strategic direction and involves heavy military struggle preparation task. It is imperative to proceed from actual situation to do a good job in
Making a comprehensive arrangement for the construction of battle-meeting and emergent-handling ability, as well as for reserve force and other
> mobilization fields.Liang Guanglie stressed that national defense mobilization departments
At all levels should be fully aware of the long-time, complexity and hardnessfeature of the struggle with the “three evil forces”, always hold high the banner of maintaining social stability, maintaining socialist legal system, safeguarding the basic interests of the people and safeguarding unity of nationalities, steadfastly fight against the separatist and sabotage
activities of the “three evil forces” and make greater contributions to the long period of peace and stability of Northwest China.
Wang Guosheng, commander of the Lanzhou MAC, accompanied Liang Guanglie on the tour. Li Changcai, political commissar of the Lanzhou MAC, and relevant leaders of the five provinces (autonomous regions) in Northwest China were present at the conference. By Han Guoxian
PREPARE FOR “LOCAL WAR UNDER
INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS”

8. POINT 2 – EVEN WITHOUT TAIWAN….
…THE CAPABILITIES-BASED ASSESSMENT WOULD STILL IMPEL THE PLA TO HIGH-TECH CAPABILITIES, & OTHER CONTINGENCIES WOULD SERVE AS DRIVERS
THE CAPABILITIES-BASED ASSESSMENT “PREPARATIONS FOR MILITARY COMBAT” WOULD DEMAND IT

9. WHY? MOST PRESSING CONTIGENCIES ARE MARITIME AND AEROSPACE IN NATURE
IF PLA CAN BUILD A MILITARY FOR THE TAIWAN CONTINGENCY, IT CAN ALSO DEAL WITH OTHERS
“BIG POWER” STATUS
A MILITARY BEFITTING AN EMERGING POWER
“STICK” AS WELL AS “CARROT”
EXPANDING NATIONAL INTERESTS
MARITIME TRADING NATION WITH GLOBAL ECONOMIC INTERESTS

10. POINT 3
WHAT THE LEADERS OF THE PLA ARE TRYING TO ACHIEVE IN MILITARY MODERNI- ZATION IS NOTHING SHORT OF TRANS- FORMATIVE RELATIVE TO THE PLA’S PAST.

11. PARADIGM SHIFTS FOR PLA
STRATEGICALLY SEEKING DEFENSIVE DEPTH EAST OFF THE LITORRAL
ORGANIZATIONALLY GIVING INCREASING EMPHASIS TO NAVY, AIR FORCE, & TECHNICAL BRANCHES
OPERATIONALLY AND DOCTRINALLY TRAINING FOR JOINT, HIGH OPS TEMPO CAMPAIGNS
CONCEPTUALLY LEARNING TO UTILIZE HIGH-TECH ASSETS IN DYNAMIC OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
SU-27 AIRCRAFT PURCHASED
FROM RUSSIA

12. “THREE PILLARS OF REFORM”
HARDWARE & TECHNOLOGIES
SYSTEMIC & INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS
OPERATIONAL-LEVEL DOCTRINE

13. SYSTEMIC & INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS
COMMISSIONING
PROFESSIONAL MILITARY EDUCATION
PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT
NCO CORPS
RECRUITMENT
DOWNSIZING
UNIT RESTRUCTURING
NEW C2 RELATIONSHIPS
EQUIPMENT R & D SYSTEM
LOGISTICS
FINANCIAL OVERSIGHT

14. DOCTRINE FOR A NEW TYPE OF CAMPAIGN
FROM LONG CAMPAIGNS OF ATTRITION BASED ON CONCENTRATION OF FORCES (MASS) AGAINST ENEMY’S WEAKEST SECTOR & ASSETS…
….TO …. SHORT “CAMPAIGNS OF PARALYSIS” TO LEVEL THE TECHNOLOGICAL PLAYING FIELD BY CONCENTRATING PLA’S BEST CAPABILITIES AGAINST ENEMY’S MOST IMPORTANT ASSETS.

15. PARADIGM SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL DOCTRINE
FROM TO
COMBINED ARMS
JOINT OPERATIONS
CONCENTRATION OF FORCES (MASS)
CONCENTRATION OF CAPABILITIES (WPNS, UNITS)
ENEMY’S WEAK POINTS
ENEMY’S STRENGTHS
EMPHASIS ON DEFENSE
PRIMACY OF OFFENSE
GROUND FORCE-CENTRIC
NAVAL AND AEROSPACE
ABSORBING BLOWS
CONVENTIONAL BATTLE SPACES
OPERATIONAL PRE-EMPTION
NEW BATTLE SPACES (SPACE, CYBER SPACE, EM SPECTRUM)

16. POINT 4
THE PLA IS NOT YET BUILDING A FORCE FOR SUSTAINED GLOBAL FORCE PROJECTION.

17. 2012 — CHINA COMMISSIONS FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER
HOWEVER….
IT IS BUILDING A MILITARY FOR REGIONAL CONVENTIONAL FORCE PROJECTION & DEFENSE IN DEPTH IN THE MARITIME-AEROSPACE DOMAIN.
2012 — CHINA COMMISSIONS FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER

18. POINT 5 THAT SAID, THE PLA IS DEVELOPING SELECTED
POCKETS OF CAPACITY THAT HAVE GLOBAL REACH.

19. STRATEGIC REACH NUCLEAR FORCES CYBER WARFARE OPERATIONS IN OUTER SPACE
LIQUID FUELED TO SOLID FUELED
SILO-BASED TO ROAD MOBILE, and SUBMARINES
QUESTIONS ABOUT NUCLEAR DOCTRINE PERSIST
CYBER WARFARE
PRC AS EMERGING WORLD-CLASS CENTER OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
OPERATIONS IN OUTER SPACE
INCREASING FOOT PRINT IN OUTER SPACE
DEMONSTRATED INTEREST IN COUNTER SPACE

20. POINT 6
THE PLA IS AT THE INCIPIENT STAGES OF BECOMING AN EXPEDITIONARY FORCE

21. 24 DEC 2004: “NEW HISTORIC MISSIONS”
“THE PLA IS TRANSFORMING FROM A MILITARY TRADITIONALLY FOCUSED ON THE DEFENSE OF SOVEREIGNTY TO A MILITARY PREPARED TO DEFEND CHINESE INTERESTS.”
HU JINTAO BECOMES
CMC CHAIRMAN IN 2004

22. INCIPIENT EXPEDITIONARY OPERATIONS
ANTI-PIRACY OFF HORN OF AFRICA
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE & DISASTER RELIEF OPERATIONS
NEW HOSPITAL SHIP
UN PEACEKEEPING & OBSERVER MISSIONS
COMBINED EXERCISES WITH FOREIGN NATIONS
TURKEY OCTOBER 2010
“QUASI-NEO” IN LIBYA 2011
FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER CV 16 LIAONING

23. POINT 7 – THE PLA REMAINS A “PARTY ARMY”

24. POINT 8
WHILE THE PLA IS MAKING IMPRESSIVE PROGRESS, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN OR INEVITABLE THAT THE PLA WILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ALL OF ITS OBJECTIVES.

25. INHIBITORS PLA A VERY LARGE ORGANIZATION EDUCATION LEVELS
CONSCRIPTS VERSUS PROFESSIONALS
COMPETITION FOR “BEST & BRIGHTEST”
“ONLY SON SOLDIERS”
BUREAUCRATIC INERTIA
NO RECENT COMBAT EXPERIENCE

26. A GLOBAL ACTOR OF CONSEQUENCE FOR MANY U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS
THE “CHINA FACTOR”
A GLOBAL ACTOR OF CONSEQUENCE FOR MANY U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS

27. Xi Jinping Guo Boxiong Xu Ciahou
Chairman
Hu Jintao
Vice Chairman
Members
Xi Jinping Guo Boxiong Xu Ciahou
Chen Bingde GSD
Liang Guanglie MND
Li Jinai GPD
Liao Xilong GLD
Chang Wanquan
GAD
Jing Zhiyuan
2nd Arty
Wu Shengli
Navy
Xu Qiliang
PLAAF

28. Xi Jinping Guo Boxiong Xu Ciahou?
Chairman
Hu Jintao
Vice Chairman X X
Members
Xi Jinping Guo Boxiong Xu Ciahou X X X X X
Chen Bingde GSD
Liang Guanglie MND
Li Jinai GPD
Liao Xilong GLD
Chang Wanquan
GAD
Jing Zhiyuan
2nd Arty
Wu Shengli
Navy
Xu Qiliang
PLAAF

29. GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

30. NORTH KOREA

31. IRAN

32. AFGHANISTAN & PAKISTAN

33. CLIMATE CHANGE & GLOBAL WARMING

34. GLOBAL COMMONS
OUTER SPACE
CYBER SPACE
MARITIME

35. USNS IMPECCABLE INCIDENT, MARCH 2009
SOUTH CHINA SEA
USNS IMPECCABLE INCIDENT, MARCH 2009

36. “ALL UNDER HEAVEN” IS NOT WELL
DOMESTIC CHALLENGES —
“ALL UNDER HEAVEN” IS NOT WELL

37. “RISING CHINA”

38. “CHALLENGED CHINA”

39. DAUNTING DOMESTIC ISSUES
RICH-POOR GAP WIDENING
UNEVEN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
PEASANTS ARE “LOSERS”
BREAK DOWN IN SOCIAL SECURITY
MEDICAL SYSTEM INADEQUATE
GENDER IMBALANCE
“GRAYING” POPULATION
ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
RAMPANT CORRUPTION BY OFFICIALS
IRRATIONAL TAX BASE
HEALTH CRISES (SARS, AVIAN VIRUS, AIDS/HIV)
POOR POWER GRID; NET OIL IMPORTER
NET GRAIN IMPORTER
INCREASINGLY “EMPOWERED” MIDDLE CLASS & ELITE
IRRATIONAL BANKING & FINANCIAL SYSTEM

40. POPULAR UNREST A SERIOUS CONCERN
IN 2006 THE CHINESE MINISTRY OF PUBLIC SECURITY REPORTED 87,000 CASES OF PUBLIC ORDER DISTURBANCES.
IN 2005 THERE WERE 84,000 INCIDENTS OF UNREST IN CHINA INVOLVING AS MANY AS 3.5 MILLION PEOPLE
MOSTLY DISPLACED PEASANTS AND URBAN POOR LOSING JOBS OR PENSIONS IN STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES

41. XINJIANG — JULY 2009

42. CCP IS WORRIED FEARFUL OF “THE MASSES”
WORRIED ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE PARTY
KNOWS IT MUST CHANGE STYLE OF GOVERNANCE
BUT HOW?
TO WHAT?
HOW FAST?
LESSONS OF CPSU, EASTERN EUROPE, PRI, LDP, DLP, KMT WEIGH HEAVY
BEING STUDIED TODAY AT CENTRAL PARTY SCHOOL

43. FOR THE PRC — SO WHAT?
BEIJING’S MOST PRESSING AGENDA IS THE DOMESTIC AGENDA (!)
FUTURE OF THE PARTY HINGES UPON ITS ABILITY TO—
CONTINUE TO “DELIVER” ECONOMIC GROWTH
SPREAD THE WEALTH TO CURRENT “LOSERS”
ENHANCE GOVERNANCE (CORRUPTION, LEGAL REFORM, ETC)
MAINTAIN INTERNAL STABILITY
REQUIRES THAT CHINA REMAIN “ENGAGED” IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC & POLITICAL SYSTEM AND HAVE “A SEAT AT THE TABLE”
IN THIS REGARD, THE TAIWAN ISSUE CUTS BOTH WAYS —
ASSUAGING THE NATIONALISM OF “THE MASSES” WHILE UNDERSTANDING THE RISKS TO ECONOMY RESULTING FROM WAR

44. FOR THE U.S. — SO WHAT?
U.S. HAS VITAL & MAJOR INTERESTS AT STAKE IN BOTH “RISING CHINA” & “CHALLENGED CHINA”
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE CHINA IS HEADED
CANNOT DEAL WITH CHINA LIKE THE USSR DURING THE COLD WAR
THAT SAID, WE WILL NEED TO EMPLOY ALL ELEMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER IN DEALING WITH CHINA

45. QUESTIONS?

46. 2008: PRC BECAME U.S.’S LARGEST CREDITOR
OVERTAKES JAPAN TO BECOME LARGEST HOLDER OF U.S. DEBT
PRC IS U.S.’S 2ND LARGEST TRADE PARTNER
LARGEST SOURCE OF IMPORTS TO U.S.
3RD LARGEST EXPORT MARKET FOR U.S.
U.S. IS LARGEST PRC TRADE PARTNER
U.S. IS LARGEST EXPORT MARKET OF PRC

48. “PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN MAINTAINING WORLD PEACE AND PROMOTING COMMON
DEVELOPMENT”
Text
FIRST TIME THE PLA HAS BEEN GIVEN A “MISSION” SEEMINGLY NOT CONFINED TO CHINA PROPER
PEACETIME ORIENTED SEEMINGLY BEYOND CHINA’S BVOERDERS

49. As China’s Global Footprint Expands…
…China’s global security interests will also expand. The PLA will likely be called upon more and more for regional security advice.

50. III. Institutional Sources of PLA Influence

51. THE PLA IS DEVELOPING SELECTED POCKETS
THAT SAID…
THE PLA IS DEVELOPING SELECTED POCKETS
OF CAPACITY THAT HAVE GLOBAL REACH.