1. A demographic prespective to understand fertility barriers of Hong Kong Paul Yip Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong

2. Outlines An overview of the population distribution An analysis of Total fertility rate (the number babies born to a woman over the child bearing period) Opportunities and challenges

3. Population size of Hong Kong SAR Average annual growth rate 1971 - 762.34 1976 - 813.23 1981 - 861.53 1986 - 910.62 1991 - 961.80 1996 - 010.94 2001 - 040.84

4. Population pyramid of Hong Kong 1976, 2003 and 2033

5. Total fertility rates of Hong Kong SAR, 1971 - 2003

6. Number of live births in Hong Kong by residence of mothers, 1981 - 2003

7. Live births of Hong Kong by residence of parents, 1991 - 2004

8. Proportions of live births in Hong Kong by residence of parents, 1991 – 2004

9. YearPreviously released figures (C&SD) Revised figures (C&SD) Adjusted TFR Yip et al (2005) (A)(B)(C) 1996 1 166 1 1911060 1999 965982830 2001 927932800 A Comparison of the Total Fertility rates

10. Age specific fertility rates of Hong Kong, 1971 - 2003

11. Reasons for decline of TFR Reduction on marital fertility rate Increase in the number of spinsterhood Late marriage (median age on first marriage: 30 males and 27 females) Imbalance of the supply and demand (bachelors vs. spinsters) about 80,000 of women (age 20-44) outnumbers men (25- 49)

12. WHY? A study on Barriers to Fertility Knowledge Attitude and Practice (KAP) study by the Family Planning Association A similar study entitled Barriers on Fertility Yip, Lee and Lam, (2002) The three major concerns: 1. Unfavorable Economic condition 2. Unsatisfactorily Education service 3. Individual preference.

14. Marriage age postponement

15. Number of spinsterhood is increasing

16. Proportion of ever married persons

17. Fertility Do we have a problem? Yes! Is it a tempo problem? No!

18. Speed and Magnitude of the reduction of the Fertility It is the speed and the magnitude of the reduction of the fertility rate,

19. What can we learn from the overseas countries Different measures have been implemented in many countries which have experienced low fertility (i.e. Australia, France, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Sweden and USA) that inhibit fertility decline. Are they relevant in Hong Kong?

20. Total fertility rates of Hong Kong and selected low fertility economies, 1995 – 2002 Year Asian economies Non-Asian economies Hong KongSingaporeJapanSwedenNorwayNetherlandsAustraliaDenmarkUKGermanyUS 19951.31.671.421.741.871.531.831.811.711.251.98 19961.171.661.431.611.891.531.81.751.731.321.98 19971.11.611.391.521.861.561.781.751.721.371.97 19980.991.471.381.51.811.631.761.72 1.362 19990.971.471.341.51.851.651.761.741.691.362.01 20001.021.61.361.551.851.721.761.771.641.382.06 20010.931.411.331.571.781.711.731.751.631.352.03 20020.961.371.321.651.751.731.751.731.641.342.01

22. Window closes earlier when the age truncating for total dependency ratio changed Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision

23. The challenges: Quantity vs Quality How to revert the low fertility: Replacement Migration: Healthy Population:

24. Low fertility About 60% reduction is due to change of marital distribution rather than the reduction of marital fertility rate Promoting fertility: CS suggested to have three. Due to the late marriage, they might not be able to catch up (1 st order of birth 24.8 in 1981 to 29.8 in 2003) Engage the newborns from Mainland born mothers in Hong Kong. (Of course, solve the critical staff problem first)

25. Total marital fertility rates of Hong Kong by age of getting married, 2001

26. Replacement migration About more than 80% of the population growth from migration. The new comers rejuvenate and inject new blood into the community. They are not coming (38100 one-way permit holders in 2004). Impact on the labour force: postponement of the retirement age. Successful experience in Shanghai about 30% are newly migrants

27. Replacement Migration: slow down ageing

28. Healthy Population Life-long health promotion and practice Healthy life style. Prevention: to prevent unnecessary health cost: for example, abortion, smoking and attempted or completed suicides

29. To remove the obstacles for getting married and bearing babies Economic and Financial impact is a real concern. A community consensus is needed. How much the community is willing to pay for it? A higher tax?

30. Time to Act Now Analogy of a clock: Second arm (politics) Minute arm (economic policy) Hour arm (demography policy)

31. Discussions Social Responsibility and Individual choice? Someone has to pay for it. No free lunch! Thank you