1. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Does Sprawl Really Matter? MetroBusinessNet Annual Convening February 17, 2005 Metropolitan Policy Program Bruce Katz, Director The Brookings Institution

2. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Does Sprawl Really Matter? What is the nature of metro growth in the U.S. I What are the consequences of these trends? What policy solutions are available to affect positive change? III II Why is this happening? III

3. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM I What is the nature of metro growth in the U.S. Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Regional variation is substantial As people go, so do jobs 1. 2. 3. Metros remain stratified by race, class, and ethnicity 4.

4. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Large cities grew faster in the 1990s than they did in the 1980s and 1970s 50 largest cities, population 1970-2000 Source: Brookings calculations of U.S. Census Bureau data Cities

5. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Several large cities gained population during the 1990s after losing population in the 1980s Selected cities, population growth 1990-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Cities

6. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Still, population is decentralizing in nearly every U.S. metropolitan area Selected cities and suburbs, population growth 1990-2000 Source: HUD State of the Cities Data Systems Suburbs

7. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Suburbs Suburbs grew faster than cities in the 1990s Percent population growth, 100 largest cities and suburbs 1990-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

8. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Source: William Frey. A Census 2000 Study of City and Suburb Household Change. Brookings, Forthcoming Suburbs Every household type grew at faster rates in the suburbs than in cities Population growth, 1990-2000

9. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM I What is the nature of metro growth in the U.S. Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Regional variation is substantial As people go, so do jobs 1. 2. 3. Metros remain stratified by race, class, and ethnicity 4.

10. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM In the Northeast/Midwest stagnant growth and sprawl are common Change in population and density, 1982-1997 Source: Fulton et al, 2001

11. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM In the South/Southeast, many cities are growing and spreading out Change in population and density, 1982-1997 Source: Fulton et al, 2001

12. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM In the West, some cities are growing and densifying Change in population and density, 1982-1997 Source: Fulton et al, 2001

13. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM I What is the nature of metro growth in the U.S. Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Regional variation is substantial As people go, so do jobs 1. 2. 3. Metros remain stratified by race, class, and ethnicity 4.

14. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Nationally, one-third of jobs are located outside a 10-mile radius of the central business district Share of jobs within 3-, 10-, and greater- than-10- mile radius of center, 1996

15. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Employment decentralization In many metros, an exit ramp economy dominates office development. Share of metropolitan office space (SQ FT), 1999

16. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Employment decentralization But the level of employment decentralization varies widely across metropolitan areas. Share of metropolitan employment, 1999

17. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Consequently, the highest share of metropolitan commutes begin and end within suburbs Share of commuters 100 Largest Cities, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Employment decentralization

18. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM I What is the nature of metro growth in the U.S. Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Regional variation is substantial As people go, so do jobs 1. 2. 3. Metros remain stratified by race, class, and ethnicity 4.

19. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Higher job sprawl is associated with higher levels of job mismatch for blacks and Latinos Source: Stoll, 2005 Blacks/jobs mismatch versus job sprawl in U.S. metros, 2000 Job Sprawl Blacks/Jobs Mismatch Index

20. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Concentrated poverty remains overwhelmingly in inner cities Population of high- poverty neighborhoods by location, 2000

21. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM High-poverty tracts, 2000 For example, in Chicago, almost all high-poverty tracts are inside the city limits

22. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM And minorities remain disproportionately in the inner-city and the Southern suburbs… Non-Asian minority students, 1997

23. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM …while jobs move North and West Jobs by Zipcode, 2001

24. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Does Sprawl Really Matter? What is the nature of metro growth in the U.S. I What are the consequences of these trends? What policy solutions are available to affect positive change? III II Why is this happening? IV

25. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Decentralization is Costly Diminishes Economic Competitiveness & Quality of Life Unbalanced growth is costly

26. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Density contributes to economic performance through: By decentralizing, metros are foregoing the economic benefits of density: Productivity gains Innovation gains

27. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Density contributes to productivity Average labor productivity increases with more employment density Accessible cities with efficient transportation systems had higher productivity than more dispersed places (47 metro areas) Compared to others, growth management metros were likely to see improvements in metropolitan level personal income Ciccone and Hall (1996) Cervero (2000) Nelson and Peterman (2000)

28. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Density contributes to innovation by attracting young, educated workers High density brings with it amenities that create a high quality of place that attracts young knowledge-workers Ideas, innovation, and creativity now drive the economy Economic success requires large numbers of people with a college education and high skills

29. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Educated metro areas win in the new economy Each additional year of education of workers in a metro area leads to another 2.8 percent growth in productivity The cities and metros with highly skilled workers in the 1990s also had high population and income growth The metro areas that have high proportions of skilled, educated labor are better able to reinvent themselves and adapt to changing economic needs Rauch (1993) Glaeser et al (2000) Glaeser et al (2003)

30. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Density enhances innovation by increasing interactions and knowledge-sharing among workers Dense labor markets, efficient transport, and high clustering of jobs lead to knowledge spillovers, both within and across industries Denser local economies have been linked to increased patenting Carlino (2001)

31. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Increases Costs on Communities and Taxpayers Unbalanced growth is costly

32. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Low density development imposes greater costs on state and localities Low density development increases demand for: Low density development increases the costs of key services: New schools New roads New public facilities Sewer and water extensions Police Fire Emergency medical Unbalanced growth is costly

33. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Studies estimate the degree of capital cost savings from denser development… Estimated cost by community prototype Source: Real Estate Research Corporation (1974)

34. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Florida Growth Patterns Study Total Public Facilities Costs by Development Type (Per Dwelling Unit 1989 Dollars)...an idea substantiated by Florida case studies Source: Duncan (1989)

35. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Kansas City is the 28th largest metro Studies estimate the service delivery savings from more compact development Dollar costs of new services (including police, fire, highway, schools, and solid waste) per 1,000 new residents for a family of 4 in Kentucky Development PatternCost Central city counties Fayette(more concentrated)($1.08) Jefferson(more spread out)$37.55 Suburban counties Shelby(more concentrated)$88.27 Pendelton(more spread out)$1,222.39 Counties with small towns Warren(more concentrated)$53.89 Pulaski(more spread out)$239.93 Outer ring and rural Garrard(more concentrated)$454.51 McCracken(more spread out)$618.90 Source: Bollinger, Berger, and Thompson (2001)

36. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM The density-related fiscal savings are estimated to be substantial Source: Muro & Puentes (2004) Nationwide, more compact development could save governments 11% on capital outlays over the long term More compact development could save governments almost 4% on service provision

37. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Leads to Fiscal Disparities Unbalanced growth is costly

38. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM For example, in Philadelphia, tax capacity per household… Tax capacity per household, 1998

39. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM … correlates with educational expenditure per pupil Expenditure per pupil, 1997

40. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Strains the Transportation System and Increases Travel Costs Unbalanced growth is costly

41. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Sprawling growth patterns are straining states transportation systems and increasing travel costs Decentralization: Widens the area that needs to be served by roads and increases road building costs. Generates more driving miles adding to congestion. Adds to household costs. Deepens the states road-maintenance crisis. Unbalanced growth is costly

42. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM For example, commuting patterns in Chicago have become inordinately complex County-to- county worker flows, 2000

43. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Isolates Minorities and Low- Income Residents From Opportunities Unbalanced growth is costly

44. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Decentralization isolates low-income residents & minorities from opportunities. Decentralization: Exacerbates social isolation in the core. Reduces educational opportunities in cities and older suburbs. Distances poor people from job opportunities. Unbalanced growth is costly

45. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM In areas such as Miami, a spatial mismatch has arisen between high-poverty neighborhoods and areas of high job growth Poverty is concentrated here While job growth occurs here Major Cities Poverty Rate > 20% Job Growth > 50%

46. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Does Sprawl Really Matter? What is the nature of metro growth in the U.S. I What are the consequences of these trends? What policy solutions are available to affect positive change? III II Why is this happening? IV

47. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Major federal and state policies facilitate sprawl and impede city revitalization A recent Brookings report on Pennsylvania found 5 specific types of state policies that favor greenfield development and undermine city economies

48. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Unlevel Tax System Skewed Investments Weak Planning Barriers to Reinvestment Fragmented Governance Why is this happening? III

49. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Major state spending programs have skewed funding to greenfields

50. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Share of population versus share of transportation investment, 1999-2002 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Anne Canby and James Bickford, 10,000 Friends of Pennsylvania In Pennsylvania newer suburbs received 58 percent of classifiable spending during this period, although they represent only 42 percent of the states population Older PennsylvaniaOuter Townships

51. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM PIDA, OFP, and IDP investments, 1998-2003 At the same time, Pennsylvania is spreading its economic development money all across the map Municipal Type City Borough 1st-class township 2nd-class township DCED Programs PIDA Recipients OGP Recipients IDP Recipients Source: Keystone Research Center

52. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Unlevel Tax System Skewed Investments Weak Planning Barriers to Reinvestment Fragmented Governance Why is this happening? III

53. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM State tax systems are biased against cities City revenue bases are small (e.g., large numbers of tax exempt properties) City expenses are high (e.g., concentrated poverty, union contracts)

54. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Unlevel Tax System Skewed Investments Weak Planning Barriers to Reinvestment Fragmented Governance Why is this happening? III

55. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM In most states, cities lacks effective regional- or state-level planning, strategizing, and coordination capacity Disparate state agencies do not plan in accordance with a coherent, unified vision Disparate state agencies plan separately and often act at cross-purposes As a consequence, there is a lost opportunity to use policies to generate markets and create wealth

56. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM A lack of consistency requirements ensures land use planning remains essentially optional and frequently uncoordinated In many states local zoning ordinances do not conform to local or regional plans Required county plans remain advisory

57. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Unlevel Tax System Skewed Investments Weak Planning Barriers to Reinvestment Fragmented Governance Why is this happening? III

58. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Barriers to brownfield development hinder their productive reuse Information gaps, limited marketability, and ineffective acquisition processes keep many vacant and abandoned industrial properties idle Barriers to the rehabilitation of older buildings perpetuate their deterioration Barriers to reinvestment

59. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Unlevel Tax System Skewed Investments Weak Planning Barriers to Reinvestment Fragmented Governance Why is this happening? III

60. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Total local governments, 2002 Many rustbelt states have large numbers of local governments Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2002 Census of Governments *Includes county governments

61. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM The profusion of local governments undermines city and state competitiveness in several ways CMUs Jerry Paytas concludes that fragmented regions saw their share of the total income generated in 285 metro areas slip between 1972 and 1997 Paul Lewis concludes fragmentation results in decreased shares of office space in central business districts, less centrality, longer commute times, more edge cities, and more sprawl

62. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Does Sprawl Really Matter? What is the nature of metro growth in the U.S. I What are the consequences of these trends? What policy solutions are available to affect positive change? III II Why is this happening? IV

63. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM What policy solutions are available to affect positive change? IV Smart growth involves efforts to change the governmental rules of the development game that facilitate sprawl and concentrate poverty Smart growth efforts are designed to slow decentralization, promote urban reinvestment, and enhance access to opportunity Smart Growth

64. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM 1. Regional Governance 2. Land Use Reform 3. Infrastructure 5. Access To Opportunity 4. Taxation What policy solutions are available to affect positive change? IV The Smart Growth Agenda

65. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Smart Growth Reforms: State Examples Maryland Smart Growth and Neighborhood Conservation Act (1997) Regional Governance Land Use Reform Infrastructure Taxation Minnesota Fiscal Disparities Law Access to Opportunity California Tax Credit Allocation Committee Clean Ohio Fund Metropolitan Suballocation in California

66. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM Smart Growth Reforms: Local and Regional Examples Transit-Oriented Development – Arlington County, VA Regional Governance Land Use Reform Infrastructure Access to Opportunity Inclusionary Zoning – Montgomery County, MD Philadelphia Neighborhood Transformation Initiative Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Council

67. THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM www.brookings.edu/metro