2 Recent studies 2005-2006 OECD says the region is weak on strategy and governance in a study commisioned by the region The Dahmén Institute recommends a regional foresight as a nonthreatening approach to get a process going in a study presented in April 2006 The Dahmén Institute commissioned to design and implement a preforesight
3 Stakeholder Map STAKESTAKE High Low Influence Limited Great The usual suspects Potential participants Non relevant Potential leaders (collaborative leaders) Source: Adapted from Chrislip D.D Collaborative Leadership: The Fieldbook City-region: a new geography Extremely important to mobilise
4 Strategies to cope with complexity Level of conflict Low ProblemSolution LowHigh LowHigh Type 2 Type 3 Power Concentrated Dispersped Contested Authoritative Yes No Competitive Collaboration Type 1 Källa: N. Roberts, Coping with wicked problems in policy, egen bearbetning standard procedure negneg negotiate Foresight territory
11 Plan and reality The plan 1.Use systemic methods 2.Stakeholder analysis - identify leaders and host organizations in the region 3.Identify critical issues through interviews and analysis 4.Prepare issues papers for panels 5. Foresight as a strategic mgmt activity 6.Run cluster based focusgroups/panels 7.Run a convent to reach synthesis and decisions The reality 1.Scanned SSM, SODA and others. Decided it would take to much effort to be professional in its application 2. Ongoing. Still some work to do to cover the whole region. Face some problems with mobilization 3. Done. The strategic decision that changed the process was to focus on KIBS as a key sector/set of capabilities 4. Under way. Some problems with the compressed time schedule 5. Using the strategy canvas from Blue Ocean Strategy for focus groups 6. Will be run in May 7. June 12-13
12 Lessons and impressions so far Underestimated the financial resources needed to do a preforesight in really professional way ( 60 000) The need for a training program for decisions makers (from the public sector) to communicate the difference between a foresight process and standard procedure. (We had it in our plan but it became not more than a short seminar) We tend as usual to grossly underestimate the time required for collective social processes. My guess is that a foresight cycle probably should be designed to run over 3-4 years.