1. FEG Autumn Symposium David Read UK Forests and Mitigation of Climate Change

2. Sensitivities!

4. How can UK forestry adapt to and improve its contribution to mitigating climate change? We were asked to: Review and synthesise existing knowledge of the impacts of climate change on UK forests. Provide a baseline of the potential of UK forests to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Identify gaps and weaknesses in our understanding so as to determine research priorities for the next 5 years.

5. Setting out the science

6. Humanity has raised the global CO 2 concentration by 70ppm over the last 50 years Monthly carbon dioxide concentration

7. UK will continue to warm in all scenarios

8. Rainfall amounts and distribution will change

9. Oak is coming into leaf earlier

10. Changes will impact on species choice and composition in native woodlands Oak – suitability relative to maximum productivity (greens = suitable)

11. Trees and forest soils lock up carbon Net ecosystem carbon exchange

12. Average daily removal or release of CO 2 during year 17–21 year old Sitka spruce evergreen. Annual total removal of CO 2 24 tonnes per hectare per year. 72–80 year old oak & mixed deciduous. Annual total removal of CO 2 15 tonnes per hectare per year.

13. Can we harness this C-fixing capability to provide mitigation of emissions?

14. Sequestration and / or Substitution – carbon lock up after felling Cumulative emissions abatement in 2050 for a range of woodland creation options Biomass – replacing fossil fuels Different objectives and strategies, all +ve

15. T The potential emissions abatement achievable by a woodland creation programme of 10 000 ha per year for 15 years using a mixture of energy forestry, conifer forests and native broadleaved woodlands THE VITAL ROLE OF SUBSTITUTION

16. Wood products extend carbon lock up Wood products in construction are CO 2 sinks. Bricks, concrete, steel are net sources.

17. But we’ve been creating fewer new woodlands

18. So uptake of greenhouse gases is projected to fall

19. YET- IN HMG’s NATIONAL ECOSYSTEMS ASSESSMENT (2011) THE KEY FINDINGS SHOW THE WOODLAND SECTOR TO BE ‘IMPROVING’!

20. Key findings

21. A clear need for more woodlands Enhanced planting of 23,000 ha per year over next 40 years could by 2050 abate 10% of GHG emissions Technically feasible – if challenging All options cost-effective Rapid growing conifers and energy crops best But mixed woodlands still only £25 per tonne CO 2

22. Forest land cover in parts of Europe +4% change in land cover proposed would still be one of lowest in Europe

23. An asset to be managed wisely UK forests store 790 MtC and remove 15 MtCO 2 per year Climate change impacts are already being seen Pests and diseases causing increasing concern Regulatory framework important including for urban trees to ensure continued delivery of range of ecosystem services

24. The status quo is not an option Long timescales mean need for action now Changes to selection of species and origin needed now In future need to consider new species e.g. from continental Europe Difficult questions for conservation of biodiversity in woodland communities

25. This is a WIN – WIN – WIN enterprise Win 1 Mitigation of GHG impacts Win 2 Direct financial return (reduce imports increase exports) Win 3 Enhancement of environmental quality

26. - But there is a fourth WIN This can be achieved on marginal land with no necessity to compete with agricultural crop production or Any need for fertiliser input

27. Plant now Use sustainably

28. Acknowledgements in particular to the following members of the RR team:- M.Broadmeadow, P.Freer-Smith, W.Harper, P.Jarvis, K.Kirby, B.Mason, R.Matthews, J.Morrison, M.Perks, C.Quine, D.Ray, P.Snowden, E.Suttie, C.West. Thanks are also due to Tim Rollinson (DG,FC) for commissioning the project.