1. Sustaining Groundwater Irrigation Economies: China’s Challenge and Global Experience

2. Explosive Growth in Groundwater Use Powerful manifestation of growing water scarcity; Meteoric growth after 1960 Of the 1000 km 3 /year of global groundwater use, over 800 km 3 in agriculture; 600 in South Asia and North China; Of the 300 m ha of global irrigation, over 1/3 rd is from groundwater wells. Protecting groundwater is critical for future supply of domestic water needs.

3. Four Groundwater Socio-Ecologies (GwSEs ) Habitat-Support GwSEs Where : Most cities, towns and villages Driver : Population Density and Industry Challenge : Depletion; Land Subsidence; Pollution Non-Renewable GwSEs Where : Arid and Semi-arid Regions; MENA; Nubian Driver : Urban Growth and Agriculture Challenge : Planned utilization of a nonrenewable resource Wealth-Creating GwSEs Where : Western US; Israel; Turkey; Spain; S. Africa; Morocco; Tunisia Driver : Industrial, High-value Agriculture Challenge : Depletion; Drying up of wetlands and streams; Non-point pollution Livelihoods-Support GwSEs Where : India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, North China plains Driver : Small-holder subsistence Agriculture Challenge : Sustaining massive livelihoods and protecting the resource Danger zone

4. Growth in Population Density around the world (people/km 2 ), 1700 – 1990 Source: International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Contrary to popular notion, population growth over past 300 years occurred in semi-arid areas..

5. Expanding Cropland 1700-1990 Fraction of grid cell in croplands Source: International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Because surface irrigation occurs in river valleys, we often think that gw irrigation too would concentrate in regions of abundant recharge..

7. Source: Döll, P., Lehner, B., Kaspar, F. (2002): Global modeling of groundwater recharge. In Schmitz, G.H. (ed.): Proceedings of Third International Conference on Water Resources and the Environment Research, Technical University of Dresden, Germany, ISBN 3-934253-17-2, Vol. I, 27-31 Long-term average groundwater recharge GW intensification has had little to do with resource Endowments; but with Population pressure.. Malthus Versus Boserup

8. North China farmers have drastically increased their groundwater use

9. According to FAO, gw irrigated area in India, China, Pakistan, B’desh and Nepal together is larger than anywhere else in the world...

11. In sum, groundwater boom in Asia is driven by: Tubewell technology High population pressure on land; Semi-arid, monsoon climate Green Revolution technology Pump and tubewell technology Failure of public irrigation systems Electricity subsidies (in India, Mexico, Syria)

12. CountryAnnual groundwater use (km3) No of Agricultural Ground- water Structures (million ) Extraction/ structure (m3/year) % of population dependent directly or indirectly on groundwater irrigation India200-21021790055-60 Pakistan-Punjab450.59000060-65 China75-903.52150022-25 Iran290.55800012-18 Mexico400.074142855-6 USA1000.2500,000<1-2 Groundwater irrigation drives national and regional politics because it affects majority of country’s population..

13. Beneficial impacts: Biggest alleviator of rural poverty Driver of agricultural productivity growth Spatial equity in access to irrigation High water productivity Socio-economic and political stability Mobilizes private capital

14. Negative Impacts. Groundwater depletion; Increased pumping costs and energy use; Drying up of lean season stream-flows and wetlands; Threat of Secondary salinization Geo-genic contaminants: arsenic and fluoride;

15. Informalization of Irrigation.. In well-managed water economies, water users are mediated through formal water service providers; and self-supply is minimal. The groundwater boom has made some of Asia’s water economies highly informal. Most water users have little or no contact with public systems; so they are difficult to reach and regulate..

16. Reigning in the booming groundwater economy.. China’s new policy of ‘water withdrawal permits’ is designed to formalize groundwater irrigation economy..

17. Water saving technologies—drips and mulching-- are taking off in cotton and other crops.. To what extent will these ease aggregate pressure on China’s groundwater aquifers unclear.. Some argue only reducing irrigated areas will help.. But this will be difficult in the short run.

18. IWMI Assessment of Mexican Water Reforms ‘ Concessions’: Water Rights and volumes assigned ; Tradable; COTAS Mexico has around 100,000 irrigation tubewells; despite that, monitoring concessions and penalizing violations has proved difficult; Doubtful if reforms have contained groundwater extraction Mexico is now turning to differential energy prices as a mechanism to penalize over- drafters.

19. Challenge of groundwater governance.. Banning private wells would be difficult to implement; crowd them out by improving public water supply Regulating final users is difficult; facilitate mediating agencies to emerge, and regulate them. China has lessons to offer. Pricing agricultural groundwater use is infeasible; instead, use energy pricing and supply to manage agricultural groundwater draft. No alternative to improved supply side management: better rain- water capture and recharge, imported surface water in lieu of groundwater pumping. Grow the economy, take pressure off land, formalize the water sector.

20. Transformation of Informal Water Economies with Overall Economic Growth Stage I: Completely Informal Stage II: Largely Informal Stage III: FormalizingStage IV: Highly Formal Water Industry % of users in the formal sector <5%5-35%35-75%75-95% ExamplesSub-Saharan AfricaIndia, Pakistan, Bangladesh Mexico, Thailand, Turkey, Eastern China USA, Canada, Western Europe, Australia Dominant mode of water service provision Self-supply and informal mutual-help community institutions Partial Public Provisioning but self- supply dominates Private-public provisioning; attempts to improve service and manage the resource Rise of modern water industry; High Intermediation; self-supply disappears Human, technical, financial resources used/km3 of water diversion % of total water use self-supplied Rural population as % of total Cost of domestic water as % of per caput income Cost of water service provision Concerns of the Governments Infrastructure creation in Welfare Mode Infrastructure and Water services, especially in Urban areas in a welfare mode Infrastructure and service in towns and villages; Cost recovery; Resource protection Integrated mgt. of water infrastructure, service and resource; Resource protection Institutional Arrangements Self-help; mutual help and feudal institutions dominate Informal Markets; Mutual help and community management institutions Organized service providers; self-supply declines; informal institutions decline in significance Self-supply disappears; all users get served by modern water industry.