1. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Prospects for CO 2 Capture and Storage Dolf Gielen International Energy Agency IDDRI, Paris, 13 October 2005

2. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Prospects for CO 2 Capture and Storage Part 1: Technology status report Part2: CCS prospects –scenario analysis Part 3: RD&D and policy challenges

3. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Part 1: Technology status report

4. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Overview of worldwide CCS projects CO 2 capture demonstration projects 11 CO 2 capture R&D projects 35 Geologic storage projects 26 Geologic storage R&D projects 74 Ocean storage R&D projects9

5. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Status Capture Technology CO 2 capture is a proven technology It reduces emissions by 85-95% But its energy efficiency can be further improved and cost must be reduced This requires integrated power plant and CO 2 capture designs Most of these advanced designs are not yet proven on a commercial scale Examples: new chemical absorbents, oxyfueling, hydrogen combined cycles, IGCC, USCSC, chemical looping, fuel cells

6. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Capture opportunities Fossil fueled power plants Biomass fueled power plants Certain industrial processes (ammonia production, blast furnaces, cement kilns) Synfuels production Natural gas processing

7. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Capture (electricity) adds presently 2-3 UScents/kWh Long term 1-2 UScents/kWh Fuel, technology Electric efficiency [%] Capture costs [$/t CO 2 ] Electricity costs [Mils/kWh] Additional electricity costs [Mils/kWh] Likely technologies Coal, steam cycle, CA312451.021.9 Coal, steam cycle, Membranes +CA362146.317.1 Coal, USC steam cycle, membranes +CA421749.017.5 Coal, IGCC, Selexol 2010382052.314.9 Coal, IGCC, Selexol 2020401141.08.0 Gas, CC, Back-end CA472936.810.7 Gas, CC, Front-end Selexol512534.89.6 Black liquor, IGCC25427.94.4 Biomass, IGCC332396.121.5 Speculative technologies Coal, CFB, Chemical looping391438.214.7 Gas, CC, Chemical looping563334.59.3 Coal, IGCC & SOFC561349.07.7 Gas, CC & SOFC662839.28.6

8. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Aquifer storage: demonstration CO2-EOR: demonstration CO2-EGR: pilot CO2-ECBM: pilot Status Storage Technology

9. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Storage 1,000-10,000 Gt aquifer storage capacity 100-120 Gt depleted oil fields/EOR 700-800 Gt depleted gas fields/EGR 20 Gt ECBM Fixation mechanisms reduce risk Monitoring is feasible and cheap

10. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios CCS: Good or bad for natural gas? Coal without CCS has no future in a CO 2 - constrained world, but gas may CCS can reduce emissions for coal and gas fired power plants by 85-95% But it increases electricity cost by 2-3 UScents/kWh Capture is cheaper for coal than for gas (per tonne CO 2 ) But more tonnes to be captured for coal

11. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Gas vs. coal with CCS, 50 USD/t Europe gas + CCS, USA coal + CCS USA Europe Gas Range Coal range

12. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Part 2: Scenario Analysis

13. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Prospects for CO 2 Capture and Storage Prospects for CO 2 Capture and Storage Scenario Analysis Scenarios produced using IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) model Technology rich partial equilibrium model Global, 15-regions Detailed representation of technologies on both the demand and supply sides (1500 new techs) Covers the period 2000-2050

14. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios CCS Model Analysis Covers CCS and competing emission mitigation strategies; ETP BASE scenario calibrated with IEA WEO Reference Scenario; Detailed scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis to map cost- effective CCS potentials and uncertainties (35 model runs).

15. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Global CO 2 emissions

16. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios CO 2 price

17. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Capture at various CO 2 prices

18. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Share of CCS in total CO 2 emissions mitigation

19. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios CO 2 capture by process area

20. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios CO 2 capture by technology

21. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios IGCC and steam cycles Steam cycles and IGCC are competing options for coal-based electricity generation with CO 2 capture and storage Without synfuel cogeneration in IGCC installations the CCS potential declines by 30%

22. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios CO 2 emissions from electricity generation

23. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Overview of sensitivity analysis results (influence on CO 2 captured and stored in 2050) CCS only in OECD countries-50% to -80% CO 2 pricing delayed by 15 years-10% Different CO 2 pricing (25 – 100 USD/t CO 2, basis: 50 USD) -50% to +30% Nuclear power allowed to grow-40% No IGCC for synfuel cogeneration-30%

24. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Overview of sensitivity analysis results (influence on amount of CO 2 captured and stored in 2050) No aquifer storage-15% Cheaper renewables because of investment policies & technology learning -50% Additional electricity savings (10% more)-15% GDP growth 2.2% to 3.2% (basis: 2.8%)-15% to +15%

25. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Part 3: RD&D and Policy Challenges

26. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Challenges RD&D gaps Public awareness and acceptance Legal and regulatory framework

27. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios RD&D gaps More proof of storage needed CO 2 capture demonstration needed 0.5-1 bln per demonstration plant Present spending 100 MUSD/yr A fivefold increase of RD&D needed

28. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios RD&D Public/Private Partnerships ● US: FutureGen ● EU: Hypogen ● Canadian Clean Power Coalition ● Australia ● Germany: COORETEC ● UK ● Norway ● France ● Italy ● Japan,… Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum IEA Working Party on Fossil Fuels IEA Implementing Agreements Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Bilateral Agreements, … Alstom ExxonMobil BP EniTecnologie SpA ChevronTexaco EPRI Shell International RWE AG Total Rio Tinto, Schlumberger,…

29. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Public awareness and acceptance The deployment of CCS technologies will require broad understanding and long-term commitment by numerous constituencies Environmental NGOs generally support RD&D work on CCS technologies Their main concern centres on the fact that CCS is seen and presented as a solution which would allow for the continued use of fossil-fuel resources as long as they are available

30. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios The regulatory and legal framework Countries should create an enabling legal and regulatory environment for national CO 2 storage projects. Contracting parties to international instruments should be proactive in clarifying the legal status of CO 2 storage in the marine environment, taking into consideration their objectives to stabilize CO 2 in the atmosphere.

31. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Conclusions CCS can play a key role in addressing global warming  Mainly through coal plants in coal- rich regions  But also some natural gas opportunities Carbon incentives are needed, but also:  Proven technology  Acceptable storage

32. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios dolf.gielen@iea.org dolf.gielen@iea.org www.iea.org More Information

33. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Electricity production mix

34. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Electricity production by power plants fitted with CCS, by region

35. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Fuel market implications: CCS impact on coal use at 50$/t CO 2 CCS impact 2050: 50$/t CO 2 results in 80% or 40% decline in coal use, depending on availability of CCS

36. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Gas with CCS vs. gas w/o CCS

37. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Gas w/o CCS vs. coal with CCS Gas Range Coal range