1. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Fourth International Conference on Agriculture Statistics Beijing – People’s Republic of China – October 22-24, 2007 Alberto J. Palombo The importance of developing demand- side agricultural statistics for sustainable resource planning and management: A reflection from the perspective of the National Water Resources Plan (PNRH) of Brazil

2. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Disclaimer The speaker does not represent anyone or any agency. The opinions expressed here are his own and do not reflect, necessarily, the positions of the Government of Brazil, the National Water Plan of Brazil, the Inter-American Development Bank, or anyone else. However, the reflections made herein are based on the experience of making a national water plan (they are not that many around yet!) Thus, if you disagree, please see me and we will work it out! And, if you agree, see me, too. We have a lot of people to convince!

3. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Water (and people) issues in the world

4. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil China, USA, India, Brazil, France are among the key players. 5 countries account for: 50% of world’s GDP 40% of world’s agricultural GDP 65% of world’s agricultural population 50% of world’s food production (calories) 50% of word’s food consumption (calories) 40% of world’s agricultural exports 40% of world agricultural imports Source: Kasnakoglu, FAO, ICAS-III, 2004 Big countries, big agriculture – Big challenges, big numbers Big water users!

5. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025

6. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025 Source: WWAP – WWDR2, 2006

7. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025 Source: WWAP – WWDR2, 2006

8. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025 Source: WWAP – WWDR2, 2006

9. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025 Source: WWAP – WWDR2, 2006

10. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025 Source: WWAP – WWDR2, 2006

11. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025 Source: WWAP – WWDR2, 2006

12. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025 Source: WWAP – WWDR2, 2006; U.S Census Bureau, 2007 Pop > 6,626,503,990 (by the time ICAS-4 finishes) http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/popclockworld.html (It was 6,626,116,196 when ICAS-4 started on Monday)

13. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025 Source: U.S Census Bureau, 2007

14. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025 Source: WWAP – WWDR2, 2006

15. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025 Half of all poor people live in the driest areas of the world. By 2025, 1.8 billion people will be living in areas with absolute water scarcity, and two-thirds of the world’s population could be living under water stress conditions (FAO, 2007). Despite this fact, a significant portion of future development is foreseen to take place in these areas. Additional pressures on regional ecosystems Requires new ways for managing water to accommodate multiple uses (agriculture, energy, and human consumption).

16. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025 The current expansion of the agricultural frontier puts additional pressures on available water resources beyond the carrying capacity of regional ecosystems. Much of the answer to water scarcity can be found in farming-related techniques harvesting more rainfall, reducing waste in irrigation, increasing crop productivity, and in changing crop and dietary choices (FAO, 2007).

17. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025 Burning Question: How do we measure food security effects of water scarcity under that scenario? Are agricultural statistics capturing the information needed to cope with it?

18. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Water Issues in Brazil

19. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025 Brazil

20. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Water in Brazil Water uses in Brazil add up to 46.6 Km3 per year, distribuited as follows: This represents 0.8111% of the total surface water availability in the country (5745 Km3). SIH/ANEEL, 1999, Palombo 2003

21. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Water Availability by Basins: SIH/ANEEL, 1999, Palombo 2003 73% of freshwater is available where Brazil has 5% of its population, whereas just 27% is available where it has 95% of the population.

22. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Water Availability: ANA, 2002

23. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Water and Population Density: ANA, 2002 More than 100 million Brazilians live within 100 Km of the coastline. This means more people, water is more or less the same, but its water quality is much worse.

24. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil How does Brazil manage the water resource?

25. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil How does Brazil manage the water resource? Given the importance of energy, agriculture, and sanitation (among other uses), there is a need to manage water among competing uses.

26. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Water Uses by Basin The keyword is COMPETING uses. GEO-Brasil – UNEP/ANA, 2007

27. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil National Water Resources Management System Put in practice Think, plan, legislate PNRH Think, plan, legislate

28. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil National Water Resources Management System National Water Resources Policy Basin = Basic Territorial Unit for Planning and Policy Implementation Integrated Water Resources Management Implementation of the National Water Resources Policy State Water Resources Policy Implementation of the State Water Resources Policy Federal State MMA-SRH ANA State Entity CNRH CERH Federal Entity Basin Committee Basin Agency Palombo (2002)

29. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil The National Water Resources Plan

30. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil More than just a Plan, it is a PACT! three-way pact In Brazil, water resources plans are the result of a three-way pact involving the government, the users, and the civil society. social negotiation (social control and responsibility) Brazil opted for the social negotiation model taking over the former command and control model. In reality, the intent is to achieve the empowerment of the parties (social control and responsibility) National Water Resources Management System (SINGREH) All this falls within the National Water Resources Management System (SINGREH)

31. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil What do we pretend to achieve with the implementation of the PNRH? Three dimensions.... an improvement of availability, of surface waters and groundwater in quantitative and qualitative terms; a reduction of real and potential conflicts in water uses, as well as the mitigation of adverse effects of extreme hydrological events; The perception of conservation of water resources as a relevant social and environmental value. Strategic Objectives of the PNRH

32. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Dividing the Country in Hydrographical Regions: The country was organized in 12 hydrographical regions, in accordance to their most relevant characteristics and main hydrological borders

33. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Dividing the Country in Hydrographical Regions: … and 57 hydrographical units, for the purposes of the PNRH elaboration… IBGE has geocoded locations for their censa by watersheds! Otto-Basin Coding – Up to 4 th tributary level

34. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Prospective Analysis - Considerations about the strategies for the construction of the future outlooks Formulation of strategies that permit taking advantage the opportunities and reduce the threats to the objectives of the PNRH Main threat Main threat: possibility of the merge of a inefficient water resources management system and a large expansion of urban and economic activities. Principal opportunity Principal opportunity: environmental awareness growth and increased perception by diverse stakeholders of the importance of water resources for economic development and well being.

35. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Logical Diagram for the Construction of Scenarios

36. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Logical Diagram for the Construction of Scenarios

37. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Logical Diagram for the Construction of Scenarios

38. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Plan  Process

39. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil PNRH is documented and available … http://pnrh.cnrh-srh.gov.br

40. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil The Supply and Demand question for water…

41. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil The Supply and Demand question for water… Or should it be Needs and Availability?

42. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Water is a finite and vulnerable resource … AVAILABLE Main efforts should be concentrated in knowing the needs and limitations to build a strategy to distribute AVAILABLE water among different needs (including the environment) Change of paradigms

43. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Water Withdrawals by User by Hydrographical Region Source: National Water Agency (ANA), 2006

44. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Water Withdrawals by User by Hydrographical Region Source: National Water Agency (ANA), 2006 Industrial / Urban

45. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Water Withdrawals by User by Hydrographical Region Source: National Water Agency (ANA), 2006 Rural, animal and irrigation uses account for more than 56%

46. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Brazil - Total Withdrawals by User Source: National Water Agency (ANA), 2006

47. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Irrigation in Hydrographical Regions: Source: PNRH, 2006

48. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Irrigation in Hydrographical Regions: Thus, most of the hopes for those regions, as far as water availability is concerned, are to promote water efficiency in agriculture. ZERO HUNGER  ZERO THIRST Fome Zero  Sede Zero Source: PNRH, 2006

49. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil We have discussed the COMPETING uses for water…

50. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil We have discussed the COMPETING uses for water… What about the COMPETING USES for agricultural products and what do they mean for water management?

51. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil South Potential: 42 030 MW Installed: 47.8% Southeast/Central West Potential: 78 716 MW Installed: 41.0% North Potential: 111 396 MW Installed: 8.9% Northeast Potential : 26 268 MW Installed: 40.4% Brazil Potential: 258 410 MW Installed: 28.2% Legend Load Centers Basins Potential Hydropower Generation in Brazil Source: SPE/MME, 2005

52. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil We have demand-side information for energy… Fonte: BEN, 2005 … which means that policy makers KNOW where the future energy needs might be … Source: SPE/MME, 2005

53. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Current Irrigation Demands Source: National Water Agency (ANA), 2006

54. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Probable Irrigation Demands due to Energy Crops Source: National Water Agency (ANA), 2006, mod Palombo, 2007 Expansion of ??%, ?? Ha of land for energy crops

55. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Productivity on the run: More crop per drop? Production (ton) Area (hectares) Cereals, legumes, and oil seeds Area vs. Production 1981 - 2007 Source: IBGE, LSPA 09/2007 133.3 M ton 45.5 M ha … but we don’t know for certain where it is going… Is it going to food? Or, is it going to fuel?

56. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Maybe, this is a good point to discuss the advent of biofuels…

57. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil The Question of Energy Crops So far, there is NO clear and conclusive data on the MAGNITUDE of the impact of the biofuels on water. However, there is a clear increase in the trends of land use expansion to accommodate energy demands of agricultural-based crops. “Current biofuels production methods place a heavy burden on land and water resources, due in part to the fossil fuel- and chemical- intensive corn that is used to produce over half the world’s ethanol” (Hunt, Worldwatch Institute, 2007) In Brazil – There are CLEAR advantages: It can buy fuel from its own farmers rather than importing fossil-based fuels from abroad. However, this might come at an environmental cost, unless there is appropriate planning and safeguards to protect soil and water resources at the watershed level. … and what about the EQUITY issues? Who will benefit from the energy crop rush?

58. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil The Question of Energy Crops … “Increasing global reliance on grain as a source of fuel could drive up food prices in poor countries. "The use of food as a source of fuel may have serious implications for the demand for food if the expansion of biofuels continues. (IMF, 2007) It argued that such an effect on food prices could be eased if the U.S. and the EU reduced barriers to biofuel imports from developing countries such as Brazil, "where production is cheaper, more efficient and environmentally less damaging.“ (IMF, idem)

59. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil The Question of Energy Crops In 2006, Brazil expanded its sugarcane production 8.1% compared to 2005, equivalent to 457,245,516 tons. Such growth was due primarily to the increasing demand for ethanol in the internal and foreign markets impacting the price of the crop in BRL 3,8 billion (USD 2 billion) or 29%, to a total of almost BRL 17 billion in 2006 (from PAM – Produção Agrícola Municipal 2006, IBGE, 2007). While a growing use of grain as feedstock for biofuels could boost food prices beyond current levels, the trend could also "exert additional stress on already highly exploited land and water resources worldwide.” (IMF, 2007) all15% Increasing biofuel production to a point where it provided 5% of global fuel needs by 2015 would require expanding the acreage of all cultivated land worldwide by 15% (LMC International, 2006)

60. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil The Question of Energy Crops Burning Question: With the advent of energy crops, are we able to derive the scenarios to determine which crops and areas of the world might be susceptible to food security threats due to energy demands for crops? Do we have the numbers in statistics, directly or indirectly, to support the claims of one side or the other?

61. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil … going back to the issue of demand-side statistics… Probably, the answer to the previous question is laid beneath some of the proposals already mentioned in ICAS-4:Integration: - at the NSO’s level (among sectoral SO’s); - from head to tail (production to markets); - with the users (like water managers)! Networking: - exchange data, whenever possible; - exchange tools and best practices; - CHANGE CULTURE on sharing!

62. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil … going back to the issue of demand-side statistics… We need “productivity”, and for achieving productivity, we need to know WHAT, WHERE and HOW to sow, plant, harvest, and convey food to curb starvation, and feed the country and the world equitably! Water management is a crucial chore in making that happen, since the same water that is used for agriculture is often claimed by other uses, like energy, transportation, and ultimately, direct human consumption.

63. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil … going back to the issue of demand-side statistics… A reflection on this reality and despite the advances made to increment food production, agriculture statistics compilation are failing to provide a reliable picture of the matrix of such production mosaic in the watersheds, in function of the final destination of crops, whether they are destined for human food or fuel products. We need to insist on correlating agricultural production and demands in the watersheds in order to make better decisions to support sustainable practices.

64. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Water for Food, Agriculture, and Rural Livelihoods Pasture and crops take up 37% of the Earth's land area. Poor drainage and irrigation practices have led to waterlogging and salinization of approximately 10% of the world's irrigated lands. Although it covers only 10% of the water used in agriculture, irrigation claims 70% of all freshwater withdrawals and so comes under heavy scrutiny when discussing freshwater governance. At present, about 13% of the world's population does not have access to enough food to live a healthy and productive life, yet the ability, technology and resources needed to produce enough food for every man, woman and child in the world do currently exist. Lack of health, financial or natural resources such as land and water, and lack of skills to link productive activities with remote markets and ensure employment, are all intimately related to poverty. WWAP, WWDR2, 2006

65. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Water for Food, Agriculture, and Rural Livelihoods Although it covers only 10% of the water used in agriculture, irrigation claims 70% of all freshwater withdrawals and so comes under heavy scrutiny when discussing freshwater governance. Current global water withdrawals for irrigation are estimated at about 2,000 to 2,555 km3 per year. Irrigated area as a proportion or irrigation potential in 1999: - World: 50% - Sub-Saharan Africa: 13% - South Asia: more than 85% Land in agricultural use has increased by 12% since the 1960s to about 1.5 billion hectares. WWAP, WWDR2, 2006

66. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Efforts to monitor Earth resources – Remote Sensing China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS)

67. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Energy vs. Food Burning Question: With the advent of energy crops, are we able to derive the scenarios to determine which crops and areas of the world might be susceptible to food security threats due to energy demands for crops? Do we have the numbers in statistics, directly or indirectly, to support the claims of one side or the other?

68. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Population and water stress Source: WWAP – WWDR2, 2006

69. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil More than half of the remaining agriculturable lands are in Brazil Source: WWAP – WWDR2, 2006, mod. IICA, Palombo, 2007

70. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Energy vs. Food

71. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Energy vs. Food

72. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Energy vs. Food Persistent variables: - Water availability (stress, scarcity) - Population growth Driving forces: - Agricultural and energy policy - Alternative energy sources - Technology Tools: - Agricultural and energy statistics (supply- and demand-side)

73. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Since I do not have time series, or current statistical data, I will recourse to the best guess of a water planner … 1.5 billion hectares Land in agricultural use has increased by 12% since the 1960s to about 1.5 billion hectares. (WWAP, 2006) all15% Increasing biofuel production to a point where it provided 5% of global fuel needs by 2015 would require expanding the acreage of all cultivated land worldwide by 15% (LMC International, 2006) More than 50% More than 50% of future agriculturable lands are in Brazil... Assuming expansion of up to half of the 15% in Brazil land for energy crops That is up to 112.5 million hectares just in Brazil!

74. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Probable Irrigation Demands due to Energy Crops Source: National Water Agency (ANA), 2006, mod Palombo, 2007 Expansion of 30 – 84.4% of land for energy crops

75. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Dilemmas in big countries with lots of people: The problem of aggregation and scale The physical scale of statistical aggregation, augmented with the limited manpower to validate crop almanacs, coefficients of evapotranspiration, soil humidity variation as result of changes in land cover and tilling practices, are making current agricultural statistics a less than desirable source of water resources planning for mid- to long-term timeframes in the field. Burning question: Which crops are offering more pressure on raw natural intakes like soil and water in the watersheds? Are we measuring that? What is the appropriate scale for POLICY MAKERS?

76. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil A World described through Statistics – How useful are they to plan ahead and point to the path towards sustainability?

77. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil A Proposal for FAOSTAT2 and many CountryStats, EuroStats, etc., …... and even for IBGE (Brazil) !

78. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil FAOSTAT2 Conceptual Framework Source: FAO (Kasnakoglu), 2004 WATER ACCOUNTS? Total Water Consumption H 2 O Needs for Agriculture H 2 O Needs for Agriculture and Other Competing Uses Water Stress?

79. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil FAOSTAT2 Conceptual Framework Source: FAO (Kasnakoglu), 2004 WATER ACCOUNTS? Total Water Consumption H 2 O Needs for Agriculture H 2 O Needs for Agriculture and Other Competing Uses $$$ - Where is the WATER COST? - $$$ Water Stress?

80. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Acknowledgements ICAS-4 Organizing Committee International Statistical Institute (ISI) and World Bank Institute (WBI) National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China Department of Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (DEFRA-UK) … and to each and everyone of you, for coming and sharing your experiences!

81. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Useful links National Water Resources Council - Conselho Nacional de Recursos Hídricos www.cnrh-srh.gov.br National Water Resources Plan - Plano Nacional de Recursos Hídricos (PNRH) pnrh.cnrh-srh.gov.br Ministry of Environment – Ministério do Meio Ambiente (MMA) www.mma.gov.br Agencia Nacional de Águas www.ana.gov.br Second World Water Resources Development Report: http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap/wwdr2/

82. National Water Resources Plan of Brazil http://pnrh.cnrh-srh.gov.br Thank You! ¡Gracias! Obrigado! 谢谢 apalombo@infohydro.com +55 61 9232.0696 (Tel) - +55 61 3468-1599 (Fax) USA Direct +1 305 720.2810 Alberto J. Palombo