1. The Mexico City Air Quality Case Study: MCMA-2003 Field Measurement Campaign Mario J. Molina and Luisa T. Molina Massachusetts Institute of Technology WMO-GURME Workshop, Santiago de Chile October 13-16, 2003

2. Topographical Map of the MCMA Population Growth >17.5 million (1999): 20-fold increase since 1900 Growth projection to 25 million (2010) Urban Sprawl >1500 km2 (1999): 10- fold increase since 1960 >Expansion to peripheral areas Geographic and Topographical Conditions >High altitude (2240m): less efficient combustion processes >Mountains are a physical barrier for winds >2nd largest mega-city in the world >Temperature inversions in the dry season Increases in Emissions Sources

3. Expansion of the MCMA

5. Trends in criteria pollutant concentrations for the MCMA (averages of data at five RAMA sites: TLA, XAL, MER, PED, and CES)

6. Trends in criteria pollutant concentrations for the MCMA (averages of data at five RAMA sites: TLA, XAL, MER, PED, and CES)

7. Integrated Program on Urban, Regional and Global Air Pollution: Mexico City Case Study (Mexico City Air Quality Program) Objective: Provide objective, balanced assessments of the causes and alternative cost-effective solutions to urban, regional and global air pollution problems through quality scientific, technological, social and economic analysis in the face of incomplete data and uncertainty - Use Mexico City as the initial case study - Develop an approach that applies globally - Build on strong base of ongoing basic research

8. A Framework for Integrated Assessment

9. Mexican Participants Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana (UAM) Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo (IMP) Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) Universidad de las Americas, Puebla (UDLA) Universidad Iberoamericana (UIA) Instituto Tecnológico de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM) Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT) Instituto Nacional de Ecología (INE); Centro Nacional de Investigación y Capacitación Ambiental (CENICA) Gobierno del Distrito Federal (GDF); Secretaria de Medio Ambiente (SMA) Gobierno del Estado de México, Secretaria de Ecología (SEGEM) Secretaría de Salud (SS) Insituto Nacional de Salud Pública (INSP) US Participants Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Washington State University (WSU) Montana State University (MSU) University of Colorado at Boulder (UC) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Aerodyne Research Inc. (ARI) Department of Energy/Atmospheric Science Program (DOE/ASP) Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Colorado State University (CSU) Pennsylvania State University (PSU) National Science Foundation (NSF) University of California at Riverside (UCR) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) European Participants Chalmers University, Sweden ETH-Zurich Ecole Polytechnique Federal de Lausanne University of Heidelberg Free University of Berlin Collaborative Research and Education Program

10. 1.Development of integrated assessment methodologies 2.Modeling and monitoring photochemical air pollution 3.Linkages between transportation, urban land use and emissions 4.Coupling between urban pollution and global change 5.Health effects / epidemiology studies 6.Identification of public-policy options 7.Evaluation and economic analysis of control strategies 8.Education and capacity building Research Agenda A jointly developed and balanced program

11. Summary of the First Phase of the Mexico City Air Quality Program Chapter 1. Air Quality Impacts: A Global and Local Concerns Chapter 2. Cleaning the Air: A Comparative Overview Chapter 3. Forces Driving Pollutant Emissions in the MCMA Chapter 4. Health Benefits of Air Pollution Control Chapter 5. Air Pollution Science in the MCMA: Understanding Source-Receptor Relationships Through Emissions Inventories, Measurements and Modeling Chapter 6. The MCMA Transportation System: Mobility and Air Pollution Chapter 7. Key Findings and Recommendations

12. Focus of the Second Phase of the Mexico City Air Quality Program Systematic development of scientific information, evaluation methodologies and simulation tools in the following areas:  activities that lead to the generation of pollutants in the MCMA (transportation, production of goods and services, degradation of the natural environment, etc.);  dispersion and transformation of atmospheric pollutants (focus on ozone and particles);  evaluation of risks and the effects of pollutants on the population;  cost-benefit analysis of control strategies;  integrated assessment of policy options and priorities for control strategies;  strategies for capacity building.

13. Emission inventories:  What are the sources of NH 3 ? HCHO? What are their emissions rates?  Are hydrocarbon emissions underestimated? Are NOx emissions overestimated?  Are there significant biogenic emissions, e.g., terpenes? Chemistry: transformation of emissions in the atmosphere  How is the reduction in NO x and/or HC related to reduction in O 3 and PM?  Would reductions in NO x lead to a reduction in nitrate particulates?  What is the impact of reducing ammonia?  How much HCHO is primary vs. secondary (produced photochemically)?  What is the partitioning of NOy (NOx, HNO 3, organic nitrates)?  What are the sources and the chemical composition of the fine PM? MCMA-2003 Field Measurement Campaign Science Questions

14. MCMA-2003 Field Measurement Campaign Science Questions (cont) Meteorology:  What is the height of the mixing layer?  How does it evolve with time?  Is there any “carry over” of pollutants from one day to the next?  Do the models satisfactorily predict wind speeds and directions? Urban-Regional-Global Chemical Transformation:  What are the effective source terms for emissions for global climate models?  What are the roles of aerosols in modifying the local/regional radiative transfer processes and cloud properties?

16. MCMA-2003 Field Campaign Supersite Instrumentation Instrumentation:  CENICA - monitoring station, tethered balloon  RAMA - monitoring station  WSU – VOC sampling  DOE/ PNNL – PTRMS, single particle sampler/analyzer, MFRSBR, RSR  UCB/LBL – Particle sampling apparatus  DOE/Argonne National Lab – PAN, black carbon, olefins, NH 3  Colorado U. – AMS  Penn State – OH and HO 2  IMP – MINIVOLS and MOUDI, aldehyde cartridges  MIT/U. Heidelberg - DOAS  MIT/ Free U. Berlin – LIDAR  MIT – PAHs  UCR – nitro-PAHs, PAHs  EPFL - LIDAR  UNAM – FTIR  Chalmers – FTIR, DOAS  Plus others Supersite Location: CENICA (UAM-Ixtapalapa)

17. Number vs. Mass Model distributions from NARSTO PM Assessment Report

18. Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) at CENICA 100% transmission (60-600 nm), aerodynamic sizing, linear mass signal. Jayne et al., Aerosol Science and Technology 33:1-2(49-70), 2000. Jimenez et al., J. Geophys. Res.- Atmospheres, 108(D7), 8425, doi:10.1029/ 2001JD001213, 2003.

19.  Signal Emission Ratio =  Signal/  CO 2 “ In-plume ” sampling indicated by above-ambient CO 2 levels  CO 2 Ambient background level Emission perturbed level

20. Mobile Laboratory: Vehicle Chasing

21. East South South-West Radiation: Spectrometry Actinic photon flux (incl. straylight) -> any J-value Filterradiometry J(NO2) MIT/IUP DOAS equipment on Cenica Roof-top (Hut) DOAS-2 L= 4420m H= 70m HONO, HCHO, O3 NO2, (NO3) SO2 Glyoxal DOAS-1 L= 960m H= 16m BTX, Styrene Benzaldehyde, Phenol Naphtalene NO2, HONO HCHO, O3, SO2

22. MCMA-2003 Field Campaign Additional Instruments at other Locations UNAM – FTIR, Single particle black carbon instrument, biogenic emissions IMP – MINIVOLS and MOUDI, aldehyde cartridges, radiosondes UAM/ MIT – Pilot balloons Chalmers – solar occultation flux (mobile lab) Plus others

23. Environmental Education and Outreach  Visiting Mexican scholars at MIT  Workshops/symposia on air quality  Professional development courses on air quality for mid-career personnel in the government, industry and academic sectors as well as non-governmental organizations and the media  Masters Program in Environment and Health Management at MIT and Harvard School of Public Health (INE-MIT-Harvard joint program)  Exchange program between MIT and Mexican institutions  Establish the Research and Development Network on Air Quality in Large Cities in Mexico  Web-based activities for senior high school teachers and students (with Monterrey Tech, ITESM)

24. Collaborative Activities with Latin American Cities Air quality forecasting training workshops (with Santiago de Chile and São Paulo) Transportation/land use and atmospheric modeling and measurements (with Santiago de Chile and other Latin American cities) Inter-American Network for Atmosphere and Biosphere Studies (IANABIS)

25. MIT Scenario Analysis  Integrating Bottom-Up and top-Down Analytic Approaches  Three Feasibility “Screens” – Technical Feasibility(effective) – Economic Feasibility(affordable) Pursued through quantitative analysis – Political Feasibility(implementable) Pursued through qualitative dialogue  “Feasibility” depends in part upon the “Future Story” Allows us to identify more robust options

26. A Diverse Mix of Emissions/Sources Source: CAM 1998 MCMA Emissions Inventory