1. “Optical Internetworking and the Internet” Vint Cerf MCI WorldCom Optical Internetworking Forum June 1999

2. Life Lesson #101 On the art of prediction…. Some memorable examples...

3. Famous Last Words "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” --Western Union internal memo, 1876

4. Famous Last Words u "The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" --David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.

5. Famous Last Words u "640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Bill Gates, 1981

6. Famous Last Words u “32 bits should be enough address space for Internet” -- Vint Cerf, 1977

7. The largest network of networks in the world. Uses TCP/IP protocols and packet switching. Runs on any communi- cations substrate. What is the Internet?

9. Some Major Milestones u 1969 - 1985 Basic Packet Net Research u 1974 - Internet design first published u 1983 - first major deployment u 1986 - first router companies u 1989 - WWW; MCI Mail/Internet link u 1990 - ARPANET retired; first comm’l services (UUNet, PSINet) u 1994 - commercial WWW (Netscape) u 1995 - NSFNet retired, competitive backbone u 1998 - New IANA/ICANN

10. Internet - Recent Statistics 3 M Level 2 Domains (NW July 1998) 43.2 Million Hosts (NW January 1999) 206/246 IP countries (NW July 1998) 165 Million Users (NUA May 1999) (830 Million Telephone Terminations)

11. Users on the Internet - May 1999 u CAN/US - 90.65M u Europe - 40.09M u Asia/Pac - 26.97M u Latin Am - 5.29M u Africa - 1.14M u Mid-east - 0.88 M --------------------------- u Total - 165M

12. Internet Hosts (000s) 1989-2006

13. Observations u 75% of traffic on Internet is WWW u 3 Million Web Sites (est. Jan 1999) u 700 Million web pages (and dark info) u Data Domination (20% voice, 80% data) u 8000 ISPs worldwide (4700+ in U.S.) u Traffic growth 100-1000%/year reported u 300 M - 1000 M users by Dec 2000

15. Sydney UUNET GLOBAL NETWORK - Mid 1999 OC-48 Based London Brussels Amsterdam Paris Stockholm Frankfurt Zurich Milan Monaco Total Trans-Pacific Capacity is 500 Mbps Total Transatlantic Capacity is 3 Gbps US Domestic Backbone 268,794 OC-12 Miles Singapore

16. Intranet/Internet Market Source:Zona Research

17. Internet and MultiMedia u Internet multicast “video”, telephony and “radio” u Transport of Internet traffic on cable, direct broadcast satellite, radio and broadcast TV u Real-time quality of service support, VOIP e.g. MCI WorldCom’s “Click ‘n Connect” u Mutual Reinforcement among media (print, TV, radio, web, email)

18. Internet-enabled Devices u Information appliances u 1997 - 3 M, 1998 - 6 M, 2002 - 56 M (IDC) u WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Nokia 9000,Sony, Nintendo, Sega games u Wearable computers (Hardwear?, Underware?)

19. vBNS: High Performance Net for Research and Education u Very-high-performance Backbone Network Service u sponsored by the National Science Foundation u to support high-perf. applications at Supercomputer Centers and interconnect research Universities (Internet2)

20. Recent vBNS

21. NG IP Trials/Projects in Progress u OC-48c IP Trunk Trial in operation u early use of Packet over SONET u targeted for IP/DWDM architecture u MPLS (multiprotocol label switching) u traffic engineering strategies u Scalable IP QoS (RSVP, MPLS) u Policy Server Development u Advanced Traffic Monitoring

22. NGnet OC48c Trial: vBNS Juniper M40 Cisco 12008 Fore ASX-1000 Newbridge 36170 Fore ASX-1000 CALREN2 South Cisco 12008 Fore ASX-1000 Newbridge 36170 CALREN2 North Juniper M40 SCMHAY RTO SDSC OC12c/ATM to HSJ OC12c/ATM to DNJ OC12c ATM OC12c ATM OC12c ATM OC12c ATM OC3c/ATM OC48c/POS CALREN = California Research and Education Network

23. High Performance Networking u DWDM Backbone - Electro-optical or all-optical switching (wavelengths now, packets maybe) u Elimination of SONET u Juniper-class (or Cisco 12000, Avici, Lucent, …) IP switches, MPLS traffic engineering u Edge-derived QOS

24. Technology Targets u Multi-path, class of service routing at level 3 (note ATM PVC usage today) for traffic management u Inter-network protocol for service provisioning, accounting/reconciliation, other service parameters (the analog of X.75 in X.25 or NNI in Frame Relay) u SIP extensions for telephony + general process interaction

25. Technology Targets (2) u Automatic configuration (DHCP+) u Key Certificate management systems (with global potential) u Directory services of all kinds u Impact of super scale (billions of devices on the Internet) u IPv6 address space management u IPv4/IPv6 interworking

26. High Performance Last Hop u Digital Subscriber Loops u Cable Modems u Fixed Radio links (blimps?, ground link) u IR or Radio LANs u Mobile Radio is low bandwidth - maybe 100 Kb/s (but new CDMA is 2Mb/s).

27. Next Generation Networks u Switched, broadband digital networks u packet-based (ATM, IP) u Fewer layers; switched optical core u Managed flows at edges, diff serv core u MPLS for traffic engineering, VPNs? u Integrated wireless (wireless LAN, DECT, GSM, CDMA ng), wired (xDSL), satellite, cable

28. Some of our Challenges u High speed, low cost local access u Scaling beyond telephony, television and radio u (Inter-provider) reliability commensurate with dependency on Internet u Capacity management under high dynamic range u Security and authenticity frameworks u Understanding/managing complexity

29. Bits and Atoms u Negroponte: transforming our society from atom-based to bit-based u The bit people are telling jokes about atoms: “Lost electron story”

30. eCommerce Intensifies u Cisco Systems - $10B/year u $20M/day Web sales u 80% of sales via Web; $550M cost saving u Dell Computer -$18.2B/year u $14M/day Web sales; 35% of total u Intel - $26B/year u $1B booked within 15 days of Web start

31. Internet Transactions ($Billions) u Goods and services traded between companies from $8 billion this year to $327 billion in 2002 Source: Forrester Research

32. iCommerce in 2003 u Commerce sales will be between $1.8 trillion and $3.2 trillion in 2003.  Estimates include business-to-business and business-to-consumer sales and EDI orders placed on the Internet, but exclude the value of financial transactions.

33. New eCommerce Opportunities u Intermediation/outsourcing of online services (brokering, clearing, insuring, business functions such as billing, credit, collection, human resources) u Distance learning, certificate programs u Outsourcing of all kinds u Web hosting, mirroring, content mgmt

34. Policy Issues u Cryptography and export u Trademarks and Copyright u Regulatory Framework u Liability and Dispute Resolution u Convergence (TV, Radio, Telephony) u Taxation u Censorship/Voluntary Filtering u Digital Signatures/Certificate issuance

35. Future look..

36. Today: you go through a circuit switch to get to a packet switch. Tomorrow: you’ll go through a packet switch to get to a circuit switch. Cerf’s Inversion

37. Our 25 year mission: to go where no network has gone before! Space: the final frontier

38. Interplanetary Internet Status u Part of the Mars Mission Plan u Possible Earth/Moon mission 2001 u Low Mars Orbit and Areosynchronous satellites by 2008 u Mars Outposts by 2010 u Possible Orbiting manned mission 2018 u Possible Manned Mars station 2030??

39. Even Martians Internet is for Everyone...

40. Cerf’s Slides are found at: www.wcom.com/cerfsup