1. Aerospace Industry is Critical to the Economy of the United States: Role and Importance of Experimental Fluid Dynamics (Ground Test) Capabilities Working Draft by Dunn September 2013 1

2. Purpose of his Document 2 1.Begin the logic layout for defining the role and importance of Experimental Fluid Dynamics (Ground Testing) to the National aeronautics/aerospace and defense industries and, ultimately, to the National economy. 2.Define the attributes/terms to be used for a document review template that will be used to collect and review published information as part of the working group meta-analysis.

3. Aero Industry Markets RESEARCH (Academia, Industry, Government) FIXED WING SPACE LAUNCH TRANSPORATION, SUBORBITAL TRANSPORTATION MISSILES UAVs GEN. AVIATION FIGHTERS, ISR, HS BOMBERS ENTRY, DESCENT, LANDING FROM SPACE SUBSONICTRANSONICSUPERSONICHYPERSONIC 0 0.71.2 5 (Mach Number) 18+ ROTORCRAFT Commercial Transports, Some Bombers Annual Market* ($B) USA World [Note: Where to include RDT&E capability investment and sustainment? Embedded or separate?] XX.X X.X XX.X X.X XX.X X.X XX.X X.XXX.X X.XXX.X X.X XXX.X * Data Source: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 3

4. Environment Market (customer) needs Safety requirements and expectations Stovepiped national capabilities Uncertain space strategy Sluggish US economy Gov’t regulation generally increasing Uncertain gov’t economic policies Forces National defense and force projection needs US and international competition Speed to market Minimalist budget thinking Government vs. industry roles Low initial cost vs. life cycle best value ‒ Tax law ‒ CR’s, 5 years and counting ‒ Affordable Care Act changes ‒ Sequestration ‒ “Strategic” is 2 years ‒ Interest rate (Fed Res policies) ‒ Free Trade Agreements pending ‒Dodd-Frank changes Research New Product Development US Economy World Economy Spin-offs (non-aero) - Technologies - New Products Aero Industry Economic Engine 4

5. Research Engine Experimental Fluid Dynamics Basic services infrastructure Test capability infrastructure Test techniques/capabilities Measurement technologies People trained & certified Calibration and validation Code Development Software tools Adaptation to purpose Code validation Skilled people Compute infrastructure Research Element: Can be aero-based or measurement/ capability/ technique – using EFD, CFD, lab or (likely) some combination. Includes researcher subject matter expertise. Investments required to establish research capabilities Research Element Experimental Ground Test/ Laboratories Computational Methods System Integration Prior Research Prior Products Experimental Ground Test/ Laboratories Computational Methods Prior Research Prior Products Science & Technology (S&T) Capabilities 5

6. Product Development Life Cycle Multiple Research Elements, Systems Research, and Prior Product Knowledge Base New Product Exploration [Concept Dev’mt and Selection Product Devel’mt Flight Test Initial Production Configure Form of Product Integrated Req’mts and Basic Concept Integrated Model/ Code Devel’mt Go/No-go Decision Utilize EFD/CFD for Development, Test & Evaluation Market Need  PRODUCT IDEA! Problem Cycle Problem Risk Management and Business Case Develop Fix Problem: Resulting from inadequate earlier risk management (hazard identification criticality, mitigation, and system integration) Technical Integrated performance Market need and forces (includes competition) Includes economic climate Regulatory/government environment Financial Capitalization Cost model, product life cycle Revenue model, life cycle 6

7. Role of EFD in the RDT&E Process Crucial to gain understanding of aero physics behavior at each step (fluids, structure/materials, propulsion and propulsion integration, product system integration, and environmental interactions) : Research Configuration/form of product Concept development, refinement, and selection Product development Flight test Initial production Product modifications Specific EFD contribution to each step is demonstrable  Part of working group effort 7

8. Risk of Losing Key National EFD Capabilities Is Increasing Factors driving risk – Aging and inefficient physical infrastructure – Workforce demographics – Maintenance stretched across old and repurposed facilities – New/updated capability and productivity investments – Organizational stovepiping by capability owners – Funding models/methods variability/inconsistency – Cyclical and declining workloads – Tightening sustainment budgets – Understanding (lack) of role of GT in the aero RDT&E process – Short term outlooks for political cycles and business performance Demonstrated responses to these risks – Reduced sustainment and investment (degrades capabilities) – Reduced availability (block, sequential, spaced, limited operations) – Reduced or eliminated capabilities and/or capacities Facility/capability stand down or mothball Facility/capability abandonment/closure 8

9. Economics of Ground Testing A Possible Scenario Equation: Capability Development and Sustainment Costs versus Direct and Indirect Benefit to the US and the World Assume – Market economy  complete product turnover over next 30 years – Average 2% annual growth across all market segments – Baseline is FY2012 – Existing GT capabilities are sunk cost Costs – Develop and sustain capabilities – Invest in new technologies and applications (capabilities and efficiencies) Benefits – GT contribution to research  feeds new product development – GT contribution to new product risk management [show relative to contribution at each step of the RDT&E process] – Estimate range and dollar value of impacts  Extreme case: All EFD facilities are closed/mothballed by 2020  Likely case: EFD workload will continue to decline and capabilities and capacities will decline by a like amount 9

10. Working Group Literature Review Initial Draft of Topic Areas Research needs: – Direct contribution (testing); ability to “try stuff” – Support contribution (code calibration and validation) Product development needs – Direct and supportive contributions to each stage of development – Risk management role for each stage Market differences? Workload projections by market, US and world – By speed range, mission (within market), new products Evolving roles and use of EFD and CFD Detections of product problems, early and for remediation Aero market spin-offs/contributions to other markets – Economic impacts, specific products, quality of life Facility/capability risk factors: status, how being addressed, impacts Environment factors and market forces over next years EFD as part of the product business case Capability investment projections 10