1. 4/30/2015 1 AIAA Delta Forum AIAA Engineering & Technology Management Maintaining Competitiveness with R&D Activity More Modernization Needed, Fewer Dollars Available. A Solution Will be Broadly Applicable

2. 4/30/2015 2 AIAA Delta Forum AIAA Engineering & Technology Management The Budget Problem Why Maintain R&D Some Current Thoughts Some Other Ideas Overhead Improvement Some Cautions Institutional Impediments Summary

3. 4/30/2015 3 AIAA Delta Forum AIAA Engineering & Technology Management Decline in DOD Budget, and R&D, is Continuing This is not a new problem –There are Dozens of Reports of the “Impending End” –It is the Basis of Augustine’s Most Famous Law –Calvin Coolidge said “Why can’t we buy just one aeroplane and let the aviators take turns flying it.” There are Many Sound Technical Reasons –A Single F-16 Can Deliver More tons of more effective bombs than an entire squadron of WWII B-17 Bombers There are Some Political Reasons –Failure is Dangerous to a Program’s Health –Especially for Aircraft - Safety is Truly Above all Else The Budget Problem

4. 4/30/2015 4 AIAA Delta Forum AIAA Engineering & Technology Management The R&D Budget Trend DoD National Defense Budget Estimates, DoD RDT&E Programs (R-1)

5. 4/30/2015 5 AIAA Delta Forum AIAA Engineering & Technology Management Development Costs DoD National Defense Budget Estimates, DoD RDT&E Programs (R-1)

6. 4/30/2015 6 AIAA Delta Forum AIAA Engineering & Technology Management Why Maintain R&D ? It is Assumed That Nobody Wants to be the Follower –Neither the USA nor My Company R&D Attracts the Finest Employees Technology Advancements Maintain Morale of Technical Staff Competition Requires It Our Defense Requires It But; Can it Really Be The Basis for Survival Without Significant Production Business –The Way R&D Is Done Today it Won’t Deliver the Technical Capability –R&D Funding Can’t Support Production Facilities –Current R&D Funding Levels Will Not Provide Sufficient Earnings for Competitive Development

7. 4/30/2015 7 AIAA Delta Forum AIAA Engineering & Technology Management Defense Science Board –New Industrial Base Paradigm R&D Must Earn a Reasonable Profit R&D Must Be More Separate from Production –Commercial Product Cross-Over Long Standing Ideas - Gansler –Many Developments with Few, Short Production Runs –Sharing Technologies –Organizational Changes Change What We Are Buying – President-elect Bush –From Cold War to Future Wars But; Can’t Allow An Increase In O&M Costs Some Current Thoughts

8. 4/30/2015 8 AIAA Delta Forum AIAA Engineering & Technology Management Some Other Ideas Use incremental development Use Fixed Price Incentive Contracts –With Short Term Specific Prices and Deliverables as Part of The Total Longer Term Contract and Plan Set Standards and Share Products; Especially Software –Not Detailed Design Requirements and Specifications Give DOD Freedom to Waive Some Legal Oversights –But Keep In Place to Provide Option if Required –Set Penalties for Management (DOD or Contractor) That Violate Allow Intellectual Property Right Ownership

9. 4/30/2015 9 AIAA Delta Forum AIAA Engineering & Technology Management Some Other Ideas Cont. Build More Scale Demonstrators Expand the Concept of Production as Part of Development –Use it to Develop and Verify Reduced Cost Manufacturing –Reduce the Stigma That Less Than Perfect Products Might be Produced Fix Them or Discard Them –They Are to Learn From Facilitate Venture Capital Startups for Defense Unique Ideas Make Modifications More Affordable –Upgrade Systems on A More Comprehensive Basis –Do Fewer Mods but More Frequent Big Ones Cut Overhead – Get Lean Processes

10. 4/30/2015 10 AIAA Delta Forum AIAA Engineering & Technology Management Some Overhead Improvement Ideas Establish a Single Joint Acquisition Command Consolidate Many Laboratories Make Some Laboratory Activities Competitive Separate S&T, Certification, and Requirements Activities –Current Model is Technology, Requirements, Development –Government Role Model Could be Requirements, Certification, Technology Establish Incentives to Move Things Through The Development Cycle (S&T to Demo to Dev to Prod) –Give Lab Developers A Bonus For Developments that Go Commercial Use Fly-Off Contracts Where Only the End Result is Evaluated

11. 4/30/2015 11 AIAA Delta Forum AIAA Engineering & Technology Management Some Cautions Must Be Sure O&M Costs Are Not Increased –Don’t Let R&D Costs be the Reason for More SLEP Programs –Be Sure We Build Enough Systems to Make them Supportable Don’t Get Too Many Different Systems Fielded –Not All New Designs Deserve to be Fielded –Field Enough Quantity to Support Efficiently at Least With CLS Solve Depot Workload Problems –Let Them Be Subcontract Producers –Let Them Provide Subcontract Support –Even if it Requires Subsidies Must Be Sure Supplier Base is Sustained Also

12. 4/30/2015 12 AIAA Delta Forum AIAA Engineering & Technology Management Some Institutional Impediments They Can be Changed Legal Impediments - Relatively Few –Mostly FAR’s that Require Detailed Oversight –R&D Has Nothing Like Depot Work Share Many Institutional Impediments –Regulatory –GAO “Problem Finding” –Bureaucracy Preservation Most Are Just “We Don’t Do It That Way”

13. 4/30/2015 13 AIAA Delta Forum AIAA Engineering & Technology Management Summary R&D Alone Will Not Maintain a Competitive Aerospace Industry – But It Is Critical And Will Make a Big Difference in What is Sustained Changes to Processes and Institutions Will Provide Much More Development Capability for the Same Budget Making This Kind of Change Will Not Be Easy In Large Part – Making These Changes Will Require a Change of Attitudes