1. The Future May 2, 2013

2. Opportunities to discuss course content Today 11-2 No Office Hours Tomorrow or During Finals Week Turn papers in by 11:59AM to Doyle 226B

3. Learning Objectives Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

4. Changes for the Future

5. THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE It will Survive

6. The Map Favors the Democrats

7. District Plan Maine and Nebraska use this system Popular with the party that Controls the House of Representatives Could pass without an amendment

8. National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Would provide a back door to 538 Popular after 2000 Momentum has Slowed Now largely partisan

9. Why No Change To Difficult to Amend the Constitution More hits than Misses The Fear of Unanticipated Consequences

10. WHAT OF THE PRIMARIES AND CONVENTIONS

11. The Republicans Didn’t Like their 2008 Rules Didn’t Like their 2012 Rules Will Reevaluate for 2016

12. The Conventions The late convention is no longer a financial positive Low Ratings, Low Excitement 3 Days and earlier Dates

13. Big Money Outcome Corporations have stayed quiet Develop new strategies Big $ likely to stay

14. WAS 2012 PART OF A REALIGNMENT?

15. Short Term Deviations Congressional Elections Weaker partisan ties Poor challengers These can result in a landslide for one party

16. What is a Realignment A Durable shift in voting Patterns The New Party Kills the Old Majority Parties become minorities

17. Who Switches in a Realignment Hard Cores do not switch Independents do New Voters Weak partisans become strong Partisans

18. What Causes a Realignment Economic or social crisis Failure of the party to interpret change A changed electorate

19. The Policy Implications A mandate for change Major New Policies Continued electoral success

20. Options for the Losers Ignore the issue Try to absorb it Change

21. Kinds of Realignments Secular Realignments- happen over time Regional Realignments Critical Elections

22. MaintainingDeviating ConvertingRealigning same change VICTORYDefeat Types of Election Majority Party

23. A Realigning Election The Actual Critical Election – 1800 – 1860 – 1896 – 1930 High Intensity High Turnout

24. A Maintaining Election A boring election The party in power remains in power 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1960

25. Deviating Election The Out party does well No shift in long term partisanship Caused by short-term factors 1912, 1916, 1952, 1956

26. Converting Election The out party is gaining seats The precursor to a realignment (1930) The majority party keeps control.

27. WAS 2008-2012 A REALIGNMENT?

28. Supporters of A Realignment 2006 2008 2012 Does it meet the criteria?

29. Criteria 1.A realignment gives rise to new dominant voter cleavage over interests ideological tendencies or issues 2.A realignment is preceded or contemporaneous with a good showing by a third party

30. Criteria II 3.Voter Turnout is higher in a realigning election 4.Electoral Realignments bring about long spans of unified party control of the government

31. Voter Turnout Went Down

32. Criteria III 5.A realignment brings about sharp and durable changes in the electorate Realignments do not take vacations

33. A Shrinking margin of Victory Obama’s margin shrank from 2008 by 2% Only 1.3% higher than Bush’s Re- election

34. The Parties have been Competitive Republicans President- 72, 80, 84, 88 2000, 2004 (24 years) Senate- 1981-1986, 1995- 2006 (18 years) House- 1995-2006, 2011- 2015- 16 years Democrats President- 76, 92, 96, 08,12 (20 years) Senate- 1973-1980, 1989- 1994, 2007-2015 (22 years) House- 1972-1994, 2007- 2010 (26 years)

35. THE REPUBLICANS Bad and Good News

36. Bad News Republican Policy wars The lack of New Ideas The Demographic Bubble

37. Outreach does not need to be massive They do not need to win all the votes They may benefit from an increasingly diverse democratic Party Can use State legislators as a farm team

38. THE DEMOCRATS Good and Bad News

39. The Durability of the Obama Coalition It weathered a slow economy A bad midterm Divisive policy initiatives

40. Advantages Demographics – African Americans – Latinos – Asian-Americans The Movement of Professionals to the Democrats In 2012 – Women moved Iowa and New Hampshire – Latinos Moved Colorado, Florida and Nevada – African Americans moved Ohio and Virginia

41. Advantages Better Ground Game The Need for Big Government

42. Problems The Absence of President Obama Is it a Democratic Coalition, or an Obama Coalition?

43. Disadvantages: the 2014 Election Democrats are facing the 6-year itch The President’s Party Loses Seats in the midterms – A referendum on the president – A referendum on the economy

44. How You Know it is going to bad Exposure and Coattails Presidential Approval Economic Growth

46. LOOKING AHEAD TO 2016

47. The Electoral College

48. The Role of History The Third Term is increasingly rare 11 Wins and 12 Losses since Washington 2 Wins and 6 Losses in the past 100 years

49. The Problem of an 8-year President Personal Popularity does not Carry-over to the new nominee (Unpopularity does) The Democratic Candidate’s Fate is Tied to Obama’s He/She will Held Responsible for His Policies

50. Presidents Tend To Decline

51. THE DEMOCRATS

52. Hillary Clinton The Presumptive front- runner Personally Popular Does she want it?

53. Joe Biden Has the advantage of being Vice-President His odds are based on the President’s final two years

54. The Democratic Field: Governors

55. Julian Castro Mayor of San Antonio No Statewide experience He has decide (soon) if his window is now

56. THE REPUBLICANS

57. The Republican Bench is longer, but not necessarily better

58. The Governors

59. The Republican Field: Congress

60. The Party of Second Chances “Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line”

61. Will He Get a Second Chance?