1. Systems Thinking Nathaniel J. C. Libatique

2. A System Is More than the sum of its parts More than the sum of its parts Where the rules of the game are as important Where the rules of the game are as important Composed of Elements and Interconnections Composed of Elements and Interconnections Invested with a Purpose Invested with a Purpose http://www.cellsignal. com/reference/pathw ay/Apoptosis_Overvi ew.html

3. Ingredients Collective Behavior Collective Behavior Signaling and Computation Signaling and Computation Adaptation Adaptation Large scale networks with no central control and simple rules give  complex collective behavior, sophisticated signaling and information processing and adaptation via learning or evolution

4. “A system is more than the sum of its parts. It may exhibit adaptive, dynamic, goal-seeking, self-preserving, and sometimes evolutionary behavior.” (D. Meadows) MAFIA Residents in MTUs Sand on the road Apoptosis Trees http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corleone_crime_family

5. Elements vs. Interconnections Tree system: physical flows and chemistry Tree system: physical flows and chemistry Sunny day  lose water  pressure drop  roots take in more Sunny day  lose water  pressure drop  roots take in more Roots see dry soil  pressure loss signals closing of leaf pores Roots see dry soil  pressure loss signals closing of leaf pores Colder temperatures  nutrients pass from leaves to trunk and roots Colder temperatures  nutrients pass from leaves to trunk and roots Overall purpose of the tree is to grow Overall purpose of the tree is to grow Purpose of the tree is nested within the purpose of the forest Purpose of the tree is nested within the purpose of the forest fan.theonering.net/middleearthtours/ents.html

6. Elements, Interconnections and the System’s Purpose Rules determine interconnections: CO 2  O 2 process is changed to O 2  CO 2. Tree survival & reproduction  grow to unlimited size People change cells every few weeks, countries change Presidents every 6 years (or so), Universities have a flow of students and professors

7. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Adansonia_grandidieri03.jpg#filehistor y

8. Growth in constrained environments Limits to tree height Limits to tree height Regenerating capital fueled by a non renewable resource: Oil companies Regenerating capital fueled by a non renewable resource: Oil companies

9. Nature. 2000 Nov 16;408(6810) Feedback control of intercellular signalling in development. Feedback control of intercellular signalling in development. Freeman M. MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, Cambridge, UK. MF1@mrc- lmb.cam.ac.uk Freeman M. MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, Cambridge, UK. MF1@mrc- lmb.cam.ac.uk The intercellular communication that regulates cell fate during animal development must be precisely controlled to avoid dangerous errors. How is this achieved? Recent work has highlighted the importance of positive and negative feedback loops in the dynamic regulation of developmental signalling. These feedback interactions can impart precision, robustness and versatility to intercellular signals. Feedback failure can cause disease. The intercellular communication that regulates cell fate during animal development must be precisely controlled to avoid dangerous errors. How is this achieved? Recent work has highlighted the importance of positive and negative feedback loops in the dynamic regulation of developmental signalling. These feedback interactions can impart precision, robustness and versatility to intercellular signals. Feedback failure can cause disease. http://www.cellsignal.com/reference/ pathway/Angiogenesis.html http://www.ebi.ac.uk/microarray/biology_intro.html http://www.csulb.edu/depts/biology/media/cell751.gif

10. “The least obvious part of the system, its function or purpose, is often the most crucial determinant of the system behavior.” (D. Meadows) Purpose deduced from behavior, not necessarily stated goals… acrobatic frog, climate change policies vs. growth, corrupt government Purposes of subunits can add up to an unwanted overall behavior! … universities, government

11. Stocks and Flows stock inflow stock outflow Fossil fuel, energy efficiency, energy policies and legislation …. stock inflow outflow

12. Coffee temperature cooling Room temperature discrepancy B The greater the temperature difference, the faster the coffee will cool. Purpose of system is to reduce the discrepancy to zero.

13. Energy available for work Metabolic mobilization of energy Energy expenditure Body’s stored energy Desired energy level discrepancy Coffee intake Balancing feedback: goal- seeking, stabilizing, regulating loop B

14. Runaway Loops – Reinforcing Feedback. Arms race, accelerated climate change, inflation, erosion, epidemics Money in bank account Interest added Interest rate capital investment Fraction of Output invested output R R pg 31, Meadows Machines/Factories  Goods/Services http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/28/human-rights-watch-hamas

15. Global Temp Albedo R + + CO2 - + Photosynthetic Biomass

16. Melting permafrost peatlands at Noyabrsk, Western Siberia. http://www.terranature.org/methaneSiberia.htm A study published in the September 7th issue (2006) of Nature authored by Katey Walter of the University of Alaska, and Jeff Chanton of Florida State University reports that greenhouse gas is escaping into the atmosphere at a frightening rate. Global Temp CO2 Production Trapped GHGs R + Biomass

17. Why Systems Surprise Series of visible events fool us: a river floods, a forest cut down, oil discovered, market crashes. Series of visible events fool us: a river floods, a forest cut down, oil discovered, market crashes. Interconnection between systems structure and behavior is hidden: interlocking stocks, flows and feedback loops Interconnection between systems structure and behavior is hidden: interlocking stocks, flows and feedback loops

18. Page 92, Thinking in Systems

19. Spruce budworm Budworm attacking spruce and fir for 400 year cycle now (tree ring records). White pine prime lumber Budworm attacking spruce and fir for 400 year cycle now (tree ring records). White pine prime lumber Annual DDT since 1950, still budworm resurgence, 1980 $12.5 M in New Brunswick Annual DDT since 1950, still budworm resurgence, 1980 $12.5 M in New Brunswick Fir – most competitive, spruce next, then birch Fir – most competitive, spruce next, then birch Fir threatens monoculture, worm opens forest. Fir threatens monoculture, worm opens forest.

20. Forest System Fir builds up, worm’s favorite food Fir builds up, worm’s favorite food Budworm population increases nonlinearly Budworm population increases nonlinearly Two to three warm dry springs increase survivability Two to three warm dry springs increase survivability Natural enemies cannot control worms Natural enemies cannot control worms Drastic reduction of food supply crashes the population! Drastic reduction of food supply crashes the population! Oscillation Oscillation

21. Drug Supply: Goals Addicts - high Addicts - high Enforcement Agencies - low Enforcement Agencies - low Pushers – not to high not too low Pushers – not to high not too low Citizens - Safety Citizens - Safety

22. Drug Supply System Enforcement agents cut imports at border Enforcement agents cut imports at border Drug supply goes down Drug supply goes down Other stakeholders redouble efforts to push it back up: street prices go up street prices go up addicts commit more crimes for their fix addicts commit more crimes for their fix more profits at higher prices, suppliers use profits to increase capital (planes boats) more profits at higher prices, suppliers use profits to increase capital (planes boats) Drug supply goes up Drug supply goes up

23. Simile File: “capital growth” R

24. Years Capital output per unit capital = 33% investment = 20% of annual output

25. Years Capital output per unit capital = 33% investment = n% of annual output n% = 5%, 10%, 20%

26. depreciation = capital / capital lifetime capital lifetime = 10 years, 15 years, 20 years R B

27. Years Capital Capital Lifetime is a deal breaker! 10 yr. lifetime 15 yr. lifetime 20 yr. lifetime Simile File: “capital with depreciation”

30. Initial values and constants capital = 5 units resource = 1000 units capital_lifetime = 20 yrs price = 3 units growth_goal = capital*10% depreciation = capital/capital_lifetime investment = minimum(profit, growth_goal) yield_per_unit_capital = 1 – exp(-resource/125) extraction = capital*yield_per_unit_capital The bottom line! (extracted output minus reinvestment) profit = price*extraction – capital*growth_goal

31. Time (Yr) Capital Extraction Boom-Bust Cycle Yield per unit capital

32. Resource Bonanza! (?) Effect of Larger Oil Deposits R = 1000 units R 2R 4R extraction

33. Calibrated Greed Growth Goal in % extraction Time (Yr) 10% 7% 5%

34. Sarah Palin and environmental permits Sarah Palin and environmental permits California gold rush California gold rush Ghost towns Ghost towns Japanese refineries Japanese refineries British Petroleum, increasingly more costly and sophisticated mining technologies British Petroleum, increasingly more costly and sophisticated mining technologies Price of crude Price of crude

35. $ PROFIT $ Extraction Capital Drill baby Drill !!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seXMIHgMFj8

37. Resources D. Meadows, “Thinking in Systems”, Check Google Books D. Meadows, “Thinking in Systems”, Check Google Books http://books.google.com/books?id=JSgOSP1qklUC&printsec=fro ntcover&dq=donella+meadows+systems+thinking&cd=1#v=o nepage&q=&f=false http://books.google.com/books?id=JSgOSP1qklUC&printsec=fro ntcover&dq=donella+meadows+systems+thinking&cd=1#v=o nepage&q=&f=false www.simulistics.com : the tool used in this presentation www.simulistics.com : the tool used in this presentation www.simulistics.com Steven Levitt: “Why do crack dealers still live with their moms?” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UGC2nLnaes Steven Levitt: “Why do crack dealers still live with their moms?” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UGC2nLnaes http://www.pioneerentrepreneurs.net/presentations/An%20Int roduction%20to%20System%20Dynamics.html http://www.pioneerentrepreneurs.net/presentations/An%20Int roduction%20to%20System%20Dynamics.html http://www.pioneerentrepreneurs.net/presentations/An%20Int roduction%20to%20System%20Dynamics.html http://www.pioneerentrepreneurs.net/presentations/An%20Int roduction%20to%20System%20Dynamics.html http://www.raczynski.com/pn/simball.htm http://www.raczynski.com/pn/simball.htm http://www.raczynski.com/pn/simball.htm Powersim constructor lite Powersim constructor lite Netlogo has a systems dynamics tool Netlogo has a systems dynamics tool SCICOS from Scilab also has a low level simulation tool SCICOS from Scilab also has a low level simulation tool