CHAPTER 18 Global Climate Change.

CHAPTER 18 Global Climate Change

An introduction to global climate change
On August 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina landed east of New Orleans The costliest ($134 billion in damage) storm ever The deadliest storm (killing 1,800) since 1928 Leaving mountains of debris, ruined homes and lives A month later, Hurricane Rita hit Louisiana and Texas 2005 had a record 27 named storms 2007 had 15 and 2008 had 18 named storms There is a link between hurricanes and global warming Warmer oceans create humid air, leading to hurricanes

Number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes

The atmosphere Atmosphere: a collection of gases held by gravity around the Earth Troposphere: the lowest level Gases moderate the flow of energy to Earth Gases are involved with biogeochemical cycling of elements Ranges from 5 to 10 miles thick Contains almost all the water vapor and clouds Gets colder with altitude Mixed air allows pollutants to reach the top of the layer

Other atmospheric layers
Tropopause: caps the troposphere Air shifts from cooling with height and begins to warm Stratosphere: temperature increases with altitude To 40 miles above Earth’s surface Ozone (O3) absorbs the Sun’s high-energy radiation Due to little mixing and no precipitation, substances remain for long periods of time Mesosphere and thermosphere: declining ozone levels Only small amounts of oxygen and nitrogen

Structure and temperature of the atmosphere

Weather Weather: day-to-day variations in temperature, air pressure, wind, humidity, precipitation Climate: the result of long-term regional weather patterns Meteorology: the study of the atmosphere (weather and climate) The atmosphere-ocean-land system is a huge weather engine Driven by the Sun and affected by Earth’s rotation and tilt Solar energy is reflected (29%) or absorbed by Earth Absorbed energy heats the ocean, land, and atmosphere Evaporation, convection, and reradiation of infrared energy release energy

Solar-energy balance

Flowing air Some energy released from Earth goes to the atmosphere
Warmer air expands and rises, creating vertical air currents Convection currents: large-scale vertical air movement Horizontal air currents (wind) result from sinking cool air replacing rising warm air Hadley cell: combination of rising warm air and sinking cool air Creates regions of high rainfall (equator), deserts, and trade winds (horizontal winds)

Convection Convection currents: bring day-to-day weather changes
They move from west to east Solar-heated rising air creates atmospheric high pressure Leaving behind lower pressure closer to Earth Moist high-pressure air cools (through reradiation and condensation) Flowing horizontally to sinking cool, dry air regions of lower pressure The air is warmed and creates a region of higher pressure Differences in air pressure lead to airflows (winds)

A convection cell

Jet streams Larger-scale air movements of Hadley cells are influenced by Earth’s rotation from west to east Creating trade winds over oceans and the west-to-east flow of weather Jet streams: rivers of air created higher in the troposphere from Earth’s rotation and air-pressure gradients Move faster than 300 mph Meander considerably Can steer major air masses in the lower troposphere

Put together … Fronts: boundaries where air masses of different temperatures and pressures meet Regions of rapid weather change Other movements of air masses due to different pressures and temperatures: hurricanes, typhoons, tornadoes Monsoons: major seasonal airflows A reversal of previous wind patterns Created by major differences in cooling and heating between oceans and continents India’s summer monsoons bring rains and floods

Climate is … Climate: the general patterns of weather that characterize different regions of the world Climate results from all the combined elements of General atmospheric circulation patterns and precipitation Wind and weather systems Rotation and tilt of Earth, which creates seasons

Climate change science
Biomes: reflect plant, animal, and microbe adaptations to the prevailing weather patterns (climate) of a region Humans can adjust to almost any climate But other organisms can’t A major change in the climate represents a serious threat to the structure and function of existing ecosystems Because humans depend on ecosystems for vital goods and services, we need functioning ecosystems

Synopsis of global climate change
In 2007, scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sifted through thousands of studies and published the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) The report concluded that warming of the climate is unequivocal The atmosphere and oceans are warmer Sea levels are rising and glaciers are melting There are more extreme weather events

Annual mean global surface temperature anomalies

The IPCC’s report The report concluded that it is very likely (90% probability) that warming is caused by human factors Increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap infrared radiation GHGs come from burning fossil fuels Along with deforestation The major GHG: CO2 Responses to climate change Mitigation: reducing GHG emissions Adaptation: adjusting to climate change

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

IPCC Founded in 1988 by the UN Environmental Program and the World Meteorological Society to provide accurate and relevant information leading to understanding human-induced climate change Working Group I: assesses scientific issues of climate change Working Group II: evaluates impacts and adaptation to it Working Group III: investigates ways to mitigate its effects The AR4 report had over 2,000 experts from 154 countries Risk assessment: is the climate changing? Risk management: how do we adapt and mitigate effects?

Third assessment The IPCC’s 2001 report showed
Increasing information shows a warming world Humans are changing the atmosphere, which will affect climate We have increased confidence in models of future climate change Stronger evidence that most recent warming is human-caused Human influences will continue to change the atmosphere Temperature and sea levels are rising We need more information and understanding

A Nobel Effort AR4 produced Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report
Contained key findings of the working groups The 2007 Nobel Peace Prize went to the IPCC and former Vice President Al Gore: the leading advocate of the need to take action on climate change For their efforts to disseminate knowledge about man-made climate change and to lay groundwork to counter it Gore also was awarded the Academy Award for his film An Inconvenient Truth

Climates in the past It is harder to find evidence of climate change the further into the past we search Records of temperature, precipitation, storms have been kept for only 100 years Since 1880, especially since 1976, our climate warmed Proxies: records providing information on climate Using temperature, ice cover, precipitation, tree rings, pollen, landscapes, marine sediments, corals, etc. Earth warmed from 1100 to 1300 A.D. Little Ice Age: 1400–1850

Ice cores Analyzing ice cores from Greenland and the Antarctic shows global climate can change within decades Uses CO2 and CH4 (methane) and isotopes of O and H Climate oscillates between ice ages and warm periods Ice ages tie up water in glaciers, lowering sea levels 8 glacial periods occurred over the past 800,000 years Ice ages have lower GHGs and temperatures CO2 levels ranged between 150 and 280 ppm Milanovitch cycles: climate oscillations due to Earth’s orbit Periodic intervals of 100,000, 41,000, and 23,000 years

Past climates, as determined from ice cores

Rapid changes Rapid climatic fluctuations are superimposed on the major oscillations during glaciation and warmer times The Younger Dryas event: 11,700 years ago Dryas: a genus of arctic flower Arctic temperatures rose 7ºC in 50 years Caused enormous impact on living systems Warming was not caused by changing solar output

Climate fluctuations

Oceans and climate Oceans play a dominant role in determining climate
They are a major source of water and heat Evaporation: supplies water vapor to the atmosphere Condensation: supplies heat to the atmosphere Heat capacity: oceans absorb energy with heated water Oceans convey heat through currents Thermohaline circulation pattern: the effects of temperature and salinity on the density of seawater This giant, complex conveyor belt moves water from the surface to deep oceans and back

Thermohaline circulation
High-latitude North Atlantic ocean flows from the Gulf Stream north on the surface and is cooled by Arctic air North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW): the cool water increases in density, so it sinks (up to 4,000 m) The current spreads to Africa’s southern tip It is joined by cold Antarctic waters The two streams spread north into the Indian and Pacific Oceans as deep currents The currents slow and warm and rise to the surface Move back to the North Atlantic

The oceanic conveyor system

Thermohaline circulation affects climate
The movement of warm water toward the North Atlantic transfers enormous amounts of heat toward Europe, providing a much warmer than expected climate The circulation pattern cycles over 1,000 years It is vital to maintaining current climate conditions In the past, the conveyor system has been interrupted Abruptly changing the climate Large amounts of fresh water lower water’s density Preventing the sinking of surface waters Slowing the northern movement of warmer, saltier water

Heinrich events Heinrich events: fresh water from melting icebergs from the polar ice cap dilutes salt water Six times in the past 75,000 years Diluted water doesn’t sink The conveyor system is shifted southward to Bermuda (instead of Greenland) The climate cools in a few decades Return of the normal pattern abruptly warms the climate The Younger Dryas event involved dammed-up water from glacial Lake Agassiz entering the St. Lawrence

What if …? Extended global warming will
Increase precipitation over the North Atlantic Melt sea ice and ice caps The conveyor will decrease over the 21st century The Achilles’ heel of our climate system: weakening of the conveyor and a changed climate Especially in the northern latitudes

Ocean-atmosphere oscillations
These processes produce globally erratic climates The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): atmospheric pressure centers switch back and forth across the Atlantic Switching wind and storms El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO): shifts in atmospheric pressure over central equatorial Pacific Ocean Dominates global climate for over a year at a time 1997–2000 ENSO cost $36 billion and killed thousands Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO): a warm-cool cycle that swings over the Pacific over several decades

More ocean-atmosphere oscillations
Understanding these processes helps clarify some puzzling developments A global warming trend was stopped in the mid-1940s But resumed 30 years later This mid-century cooling resulted from shifting ocean circulation linked to the NAO Ocean-atmosphere oscillations can offset global warming But greenhouse warming will overcome them and intensify by the end of this decade

The Earth as a greenhouse
Factors that influence climate Internal components: oceans, atmosphere, snow, ice External factors: solar radiation, Earth’s rotation and orbit, gaseous makeup of the atmosphere Radiative forcing: the influence of any factor on the energy balance of the atmosphere-ocean-land system Positive (negative) forcing: leads to warming (cooling) Forcing is measured in Watts/m2 Solar radiation entering the atmosphere = 340 W/m2 Radiation is acted on by forcing factors

Warming processes Greenhouse gases (GHGs): water vapor, CO2, other gases Light energy goes through the atmosphere to Earth Earth absorbs and converts energy to heat Infrared heat energy radiates back to space GHGs (but not N2 and O2) in the troposphere absorb some infrared radiation Direct it back to Earth’s surface The greenhouse effect was first recognized in 1827 It is now firmly established

GHGs insulate Earth GHGs delay the loss of infrared heat (energy)
Without insulation, Earth would be -19°C instead of +14°C Life would be impossible Earth’s global climate depends on the concentration of GHGs Changing amounts of GHGs change positive forcing agents, which would change the climate Tropospheric ozone has a positive forcing effect Varying with time and location

The greenhouse effect

Cooling processes Planetary albedo: sunlight reflected by clouds
Contributes to overall cooling by preventing warming Low-flying clouds have a negative forcing effect High-flying, wispy clouds have a positive forcing effect Absorb solar radiation and emit infrared radiation Snow and ice contribute to albedo by reflecting sunlight Black carbon soot darkens snow and ice Dark snow/ice absorbs radiant energy instead of reflecting it Reduces albedo

Volcanoes and aerosols
Volcanic activity can lead to planetary cooling Reflects radiation from particles and aerosols Aerosols: microscopic liquid or solid particles from land or water Industrial aerosols (pollution) cancel some GHG warming Sulfates, nitrates, dust, soot from industry and forest fires Sooty aerosols (from fires): warming effect Sulfate aerosols create cooling through more clouds Reduced pollution in the U.S. and Europe decreased aerosols China’s and India’s pollution has increased aerosols

Global warming and cooling

Solar variability Variation in the Sun’s radiation influences the climate Changes in solar radiation occur on 11-year cycles Solar radiation increases during high sunspot activity Sunspots block cosmic ray intensity Reduce cloud cover and increase solar radiation Solar output declined in 1985 and continued for 20 years But global temperatures rose rapidly The IPCC AR4 concluded that GHGs were 13 times more responsible for warming temperatures than solar changes

Thus … Global atmospheric temperatures are a balance between positive and negative forcing from natural causes (volcanoes, clouds, natural GHGs, solar irradiance) and forcing from anthropogenic causes (sulfate aerosols, soot, ozone, increased GHGs) Forcing agents result in climate fluctuations It is hard to say any one event or extreme season is due to humans But climate has shifted enough to generate international attention

Evidence of climate change
Weather varies naturally year to year Local temperatures may not follow global averages But the 10 warmest years on record were 1997–2008 2005 set a record high—the warmest since the late 1800s The average global temperature has risen 0.6°C since the mid-1970s (0.2°C/decade) Warming is happening everywhere Most rapidly at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere The warming is a consequence of an “enhanced greenhouse effect”

Satellites Measurements of tropospheric temperatures by 13 satellites over 20 years did not show temperature increases Skeptics made much of this discrepancy The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Created in 2002 to address unresolved questions about climate change Its 2006 report stated that errors caused the discrepancy Corrected and new data agree that surface and tropospheric temperatures are rising

Ocean warming Recently, the upper 3,000 meters of the ocean have warmed Dwarfing warming of the atmosphere 90% of the heat increase of Earth’s systems Over the last decade, oceans have absorbed most of the non-atmospheric heat A long-term consequence: the impact of this stored heat as it comes into equilibrium with the atmosphere It will increase atmospheric and land heat even more A short-term consequence: unprecedented rising sea levels Thermal expansion and melting glaciers and ice caps

Heat capture by the oceans

The rise in global mean sea level

Other observed changes by the IPCC AR4
Changes are consistent with GHG-caused climate change Increased warm temperature extremes Decreased cold temperature extremes Spring comes earlier, fall later, in the Northern Hemisphere Ecosystems are out of sync Tree deaths and insect damage Heat waves are increasing in intensity and frequency Droughts are increasing in intensity and frequency 60% of the U.S. is in a drought that started in the 1990s

More changes reported by the IPCC
Rising Arctic temperatures have caused major shrinkage of Arctic sea ice (11.7% in 10 years) Alaska, Siberia, Canada have warmed 5°F in summer, 10°F in winter Spring comes 2 weeks earlier than 10 years ago The polar ice cap has lost 20% of its volume in 20 years Permafrost is melting Unprecedented melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet can raise ocean levels 23 feet

Decline of Arctic sea ice

Other changes reported by the IPCC
Antarctica temperatures have risen 0.5°–0.85°C The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is shrinking and can raise sea levels by 16–20 feet Accelerating glacier melting since 1990 Changing patterns of precipitation and flooding Greater amounts from 30° N and S poleward More intense and frequent tropical hurricanes Marine fish populations have shifted northward Ocean acidification: decreased pH due to CO2 absorption The surface ocean’s chemistry is actually changing

Shrinkage of the Muir glacier

Rising greenhouse gases
The IPCC AR4 report states that global GHG emissions from humans have grown 70% between 1970 and 2004 The most important GHG is carbon dioxide (CO2) Carbon dioxide: Over 100 years ago, Swedish scientist Arrhenius suggested that burning fossil fuels may increase CO2 But he was not concerned about the impacts Carbon dioxide monitoring: CO2 levels have been monitored on Mauna Loa, Hawaii since 1958 Atmospheric CO2 levels have increased 1.5–2 ppm/yr

Carbon dioxide levels CO2 levels oscillate 5–7 ppm, reflecting seasonal changes in photosynthesis and respiration Fall through spring: respiration increases CO2 levels Spring through fall: photosynthesis decreases CO2 By 2009, atmospheric CO2 levels = 338 ppm 39% higher than before the Industrial Revolution Higher than in the past 800,000 years Fossil fuels increase CO2 levels 1 kg of fossil fuel burned releases 3 kg CO2 Eight billion tons (gigatons, Gt) of fossil fuel carbon/year

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels

Sources of carbon dioxide
Half of fossil fuel carbon comes from industrialized nations Burning forests adds 1.6 Gtc/year Over the past 50 years, release of carbon has tripled Half of the carbon is removed by sinks Sinks: burning fossil fuels should add 8 GtC/year to the air But only 3.3 GtC/year are actually added Carbon sinks (the ocean, biota) absorb CO2 Oceans take up CO2 by phytoplankton or undersaturation But there are limitations to uptake Forests are valuable for their ability to sequester carbon

Sources of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels

Global carbon cycle

Other gases Other gases absorb infrared radiation
Adding to the insulating effect of carbon dioxide Most are anthropogenic sources and are increasing Water vapor: the most abundant GHG Its tropospheric concentration varies, but is rising Higher temperatures increase evaporation and water vapor (humidity) Higher humidity traps more heat, causing more warming (positive feedback)

Other GHGs Methane: 20 times more effective than CO2 in heating
From microbial fermentation (in wetlands), green plants Two-thirds of emissions are from human sources: livestock, landfills, coal mines, natural gas, rice cultivation, manure Rising at 0.8 ppb/year, it is more abundant than in the past 800,000 years Nitrous oxide: has increased 18% over the last 200 years From agriculture, oceans, biomass burning, fossil fuel burning, industry, anaerobic denitrification (fertilizers) Warms the troposphere and destroys stratospheric ozone

Ozone and CFCs Ozone: a short-lived but potent GHG in the troposphere
From sunlight acting on pollutants Has increased 36% since 1750 From traffic, forest fires, agricultural wastes CFC and other halocarbons are entirely anthropogenic Long-lived GHGs causing warming and ozone destruction From refrigerants, solvents, fire retardants They absorb 10,000 times more infrared energy than CO2 Levels are slowly declining but will remain for decades

Radiative forcing

Future changes in climate
Happening now: higher temperatures, rising seas, heat waves, droughts, intense storms, season shifts, melting ice GHG levels are rising Along with fossil fuel demand and population Emissions will rise 35% (2030) and 100% (2050) Modeling global climate: computing power has increased Can explore the potential future impacts of rising GHGs Atmospheric-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) Simulate long-term climatic conditions

Modeled vs. actual data on temperature anomalies (1900–2000)

Testing AOGCMs The best test: how well they simulate present-day climate The most recent models have unprecedented realism Assumptions about GHG emissions are combined with climate responses to GHGs (climate sensitivity) Every scenario showed increased CO2 and temperature Future temperature increases will be due to released energy from the oceans (0.1°C/decade) The AR4 report and the models show that increasing GHGs will increase temperatures Leading to regional climate changes and rising sea levels

Model projections of global mean warming

Significant findings of climate models
Equilibrium climate sensitivity: if atmospheric CO2 stays at 550 ppm (double preindustrial values), temperature will rise 3°C (2°–4.5°C) by 2050 Warming will be due to GHG emissions (0.2°C/decade) Higher latitudes and continental interiors will warm most But it will be warmer everywhere Snow cover and sea ice will decrease, opening up the Arctic Ocean by 2100 Shrinking glaciers and ice caps will increase sea levels 90% of upper permafrost will thaw

More findings Warmer, dilute upper layers of the North Atlantic Ocean will lead to decreased (but not collapsed) thermohaline circulation Increased storm intensities, higher wind speeds and waves, more intense precipitation More frequent, longer-lasting heat waves Longer growing seasons, shorter frost days Dry areas will get dryer, wet areas will get wetter Extreme droughts will affect up to 30% of the world Ecosystems (polar ecosystems, coral reefs, rainforests) will be profoundly affected, increasing species extinctions

Global warming impacts on biological systems

The “business as usual” approach
Predicts 3–5°C temperature increase 5°C: difference between an ice age and warm period Earth’s climate will change dramatically if nothing is done Responding will involve unprecedented and costly adjustments The agricultural community does not know what to expect Farmers already lose one in five crops due to weather How far will sea levels rise? 0.5 m: people will abandon flooded coastal areas 1 m: tens of millions of refugees, lost rice lands, obliterated low islands

What about the Antarctic?
The Antarctic could be a huge factor in rising sea levels The WAIS is shrinking Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets hold enough water to raise sea levels 230 feet Snowfall has not changed in the past 50 years 87% of the 244 glaciers are melting The melting ice sheet is raising sea levels 0.4 mm/year Higher continental temperatures (3°C) Models project a 5% snowfall increase for each 1°C temperature rise

Climate change in the U.S.
The 2002 Global Change Research Program (GCRP) Integrates efforts of federal agencies to understand climate change Communicates scientific findings to policy makers and the public These reports are well done Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Is designated the United Synthesis Product (USP) Looks at impacts of climate change on sectors (health, etc.) and regions (Northwest, Alaska, etc.)

Climate change in the U.S.
All impacts are expected to continue and/or increase Impacts are greater in Alaska than any other U.S. region Changes in the U.S. over the past 50–100 years include Average temperature has risen 2°F Wetter areas are wetter, dryer areas are dryer Heavy downpours and storms have increased More extreme and frequent weather events Stronger Atlantic hurricanes Sea levels have risen 2–5 inches Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly

Climate on the move in the Midwest

Response to climate change
Industries and transportation network are locked into using fossil fuels Massive emissions of GHGs will continue Adaptation: anticipate harm and plan adaptive responses to decrease vulnerability of people, property, and the biosphere Mitigation: take action to prevent emissions Skeptics about global warming exist Fossil fuel industry, Rush Limbaugh, conservative think tanks, some scientists

Stages of climate change skeptics
Stage I: you’re wrong about climate change and we can prove it But there are no other plausible arguments for climate change Stage II: OK, the climate is changing, but it isn’t changing that much The threat is overplayed Why take costly steps to prevent it? Stage III: it will do damage, but it’s too late or too costly to do anything about it

Skeptics and ethical principles
Climate change skeptics are on talk radio, on the Internet, in Congress, in the media Unfounded skepticism is regrettable, dangerous, and unethical Precautionary principle: the 1992 Rio Declaration states that lack of scientific certainty should not prevent action Polluter pays principle: polluters should pay for the damage they cause Equity principle: the rich and privileged should care about the poor

Mitigation It will be costly to mitigate and adapt to climate change
But inaction will be far more costly Every country will be affected, but especially the poorest Hundreds of millions of climate refugees Radicalized people will turn to conflict and terrorism The Natural Resources Defense Council estimates inaction will cost the U.S. 3.6% of GDP ($3.8 trillion) Worldwide costs will equal 5%–20% of GDP/year We must reduce emissions of GHGs What should we target?

Achieving stabilization
The Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) We must stabilize GHG levels on a time scale that prevents interfering with climate 3°C rise: rising sea levels of 80 feet 2°C rise: irreversible melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet We have a target of 1–1.5°C more warming CO2 = 400–500 ppm Al Gore’s inconvenient truth: carbon emissions must fall from 8 GtC/year to 2 GtC/year

CO2 emissions and temperature increases for a range of stabilization levels

What has been done? The Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) agreed to stabilize GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2000 in all industrialized nations This voluntary approach failed All developed countries (except the EU) increased GHG emissions by 7%–9% Developing countries increased theirs by 25%! Kyoto Protocol: the third Conference of Parties to the FCCC met in 1997 in Japan to craft a binding agreement on reducing emissions

The Kyoto Protocol 38 industrial nations agreed to reduce GHG emissions 5% below 1990 levels Annex I parties: signatories to this agreement Non-Annex I parties: developing countries Developing nations refused any reductions They said they have the right to develop using fossil fuels, just as developed nations had FCC principle of “common but different responsibilities” Each nation must address climate change But its priorities and efforts could differ

Ratifying the Kyoto Protocol
At least 55 nations must ratify it; 180 parties have The U.S. is the only Annex I party that has not Signers of the protocol have flexibility in how they will achieve their GHG reductions Renewable fuels, nuclear, conservation, planting trees Emissions trading, helping other nations There are penalties for failing to meet commitments Many Annex I countries are on target But not the U.S., Australia, Canada, Japan

Weaknesses of the Kyoto Protocol
The protocol’s targeted reductions will not stabilize GHGs It would take immediate reductions of 60% globally There is no chance of this happening, so emissions will continue to rise The world’s largest GHG emitters are not participating India, China, the U.S. A 2007 UN-sponsored climate conference occurred in Bali The U.S. and some developing countries opposed emission cuts and targets Negotiations on emissions occurred in Copenhagen (2009)

U.S. policy: the Bush years
President G. W. Bush opposed the Kyoto Protocol It exempts developing countries It would seriously harm the U.S. economy There was incomplete scientific knowledge The U.S. formally withdrew from the Kyoto agreement Global Climate Change Initiative (GCCI) Reduces emissions intensity: the ratio of emissions to economic output (GDP) GHG emissions actually rose 17%

U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, 1990–2007

Other Bush actions on climate change
Climate Change Science Program (CCSP/GCRP) $37 billion since 2001 to research climate change But Bush’s administration hampered science and policy The EPA did not act on a Supreme Court decision ordering it to consider GHG pollution as a threat It stifled communications from climate scientists It heavily edited reports from federal agencies to emphasize uncertainties In 2008, Bush called for limiting GHGs by 2025 Allowing emissions to rise 10% more

A sea change The Democratically controlled 110th and 111th Congress addressed climate change issues The House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming Research, cap-and-trade, emissions taxes President Obama has made climate change a priority Appointed climate scientists to key positions Nobel Prize-winning physicist Steven Chu heads the Department of Energy

States and corporations
Many states are acting to address climate change Renewable portfolio standards, emission reporting Cap-and-trade programs, reducing emissions Regional, state, local initiatives will pressure the federal government to act The U.S. Climate Action Partnership: corporations are joining environmental groups urging Congress to act Cap-and-trade programs: government sets GHG limits A company emitting less can sell its unused permits Already used in the EU and by Annex I parties

Mitigation tools Reducing GHG emissions (several are already in place) Cap-and-trade, renewable energy, carbon capture and storage, nuclear, reforestation, efficiency Mileage standards, subsidies, carbon tax Stabilization triangle: carbon savings by reducing GHGs It is broken into seven wedges (mitigation strategies) Each wedge reduces 1 billion tons of carbon emissions 15 wedge strategies in four categories: efficiency/ conservation, fossil fuels, nuclear, renewables Only seven are needed to bring about the desired future

Stabilization wedges

Adaptation Adaptation: making adjustments in anticipation of changes caused by rising sea levels and temperatures Reducing vulnerability to impacts Hard to anticipate what to do and is not cost free Examples of adaptation strategies Agriculture: climate-resistant crops, irrigation Structures: seawalls, reservoirs, revegetation of coasts Emergency preparedness: early-warning systems Reducing risks: financial safety nets, proper insurance Development, controlling diseases, economic progress

New funds Climate change will impact developing nations the most
The FCCC established funding sources to help developing countries Least Developed Countries Fund: advises countries on national adaptation strategies Special Climate Change Fund: provides financial assistance to countries affected by climate change Adaptation Fund Climate Investment Funds: sponsored by the World Bank

Poverty and climate change
Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation—a World Bank report The poor will suffer disproportionately Climate changes will be superimposed on other problems Water, food security, health, life in coastal areas Countries with the fewest resources will bear the greatest burden Ecosystem goods and services will be disrupted 96% of disaster-related deaths occur in developing nations Adaptation must also reduce poverty and achieve MDGs

Strategies Adaptation strategies will vary with different circumstances The best way to address impacts on the poor: integrating adaptation into development and poverty reduction strategies Adaptations have “no regrets” benefits These measures foster desirable social benefits, regardless of whether climate change is occurring Improved governance, assessing vulnerability, accurate information, including economic processes Many adaptation strategies are common to all countries

Geoengineering Futuristic schemes to fight climate change may not work
Fertilizing oceans with iron to stimulate photosynthesis Scrubbers to remove and store CO2 Sulfate particles or satellites to block solar radiation These schemes have huge costs and unintended consequences We are conducting an enormous global experiment in geoengineering Our children and their descendants will have to live with the consequences

Active Lecture Questions
CHAPTER 18 Global Climate Change Active Lecture Questions

Review Question-1 The layer of the atmosphere that is closest to the Earth’s surface is the a. troposphere. b. stratosphere. c. mesosphere. d. thermosphere.

Review Question-1 Answer
The layer of the atmosphere that is closest to the Earth’s surface is the a. troposphere. b. stratosphere. c. mesosphere. d. thermosphere.

a. President Bill Clinton. b. President Jimmy Carter.
Review Question-2 The Nobel Committee awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC and to a. President Bill Clinton. b. President Jimmy Carter. c. Vice President Al Gore. d. Vice President Dick Cheney.

The Nobel Committee awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC and to a. President Bill Clinton. b. President Jimmy Carter. c. Vice President Al Gore. d. Vice President Dick Cheney.

Review Question-3 ______ is the influence any particular factor has on the energy balance of the atmosphere-ocean-land system. a. Global warming b. Radiative forcing c. Greenhouse warming d. Planetary albedo

______ is the influence any particular factor has on the energy balance of the atmosphere-ocean-land system. a. Global warming b. Radiative forcing c. Greenhouse warming d. Planetary albedo

a. shrinkage of Arctic sea ice
Review Question-4 Which of the following is an observed change that supports the concept of climate change? a. shrinkage of Arctic sea ice b. patterns of precipitation are changing c. marine fish species are shifting northward d. all of the above

Which of the following is an observed change that supports the concept of climate change? a. shrinkage of Arctic sea ice b. patterns of precipitation are changing c. marine fish species are shifting northward d. all of the above

All of the following are anthropogenic greenhouse gases except
Review Question-5 All of the following are anthropogenic greenhouse gases except a. carbon dioxide. b. molecular oxygen. c. chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). d. methane.

All of the following are anthropogenic greenhouse gases except a. carbon dioxide. b. molecular oxygen. c. chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). d. methane.

Interpreting Graphs and Data-1
According to Fig , which world region is the greatest source of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning? a. Africa b. Middle East c. Asia/Pacific d. North America

Interpreting Graphs and Data-1 Answer
According to Fig , which world region is the greatest source of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning? a. Africa b. Middle East c. Asia/Pacific d. North America

Interpreting Graphs and Data-2
According to Fig , if we meet the higher emissions scenario for climate change, then Illinois will have summer temperatures similar to ______ by ______. a. Louisiana; the mid-century b. Texas; the mid-century c. Louisiana; the end of the century d. Texas; the end of the century

Interpreting Graphs and Data-2 Answer
According to Fig , if we meet the higher emissions scenario for climate change, then Illinois will have summer temperatures similar to ______ by ______. a. Louisiana; the mid-century b. Texas; the mid-century c. Louisiana; the end of the century d. Texas; the end of the century

Thinking Environmentally-1
Under the ______, the government imposes strict limits on emissions from a group of industries and then grants permits for emissions. a. Climate Change Science Program b. Global Climate Change Initiative c. Cap and Trade Program d. Framework Convention on Climate Change

Thinking Environmentally-1 Answer
Under the ______, the government imposes strict limits on emissions from a group of industries and then grants permits for emissions. a. Climate Change Science Program b. Global Climate Change Initiative c. Cap and Trade Program d. Framework Convention on Climate Change

Thinking Environmentally-2
All of the following are strategies that developed countries can use to better cope with climate change except a. emergency preparedness. b. have farmers shift to climate-resistant crops. c. establish a financial safety net and discourage poor choices. d. increase deforestation.

Thinking Environmentally-2 Answer
All of the following are strategies that developed countries can use to better cope with climate change except a. emergency preparedness. b. have farmers shift to climate-resistant crops. c. establish a financial safety net and discourage poor choices. d. increase deforestation.

CHAPTER 18 Global Climate Change.

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