1. Operational Global Model Plans John Derber

2. Timeline July 25, 2013: Completion of phase 1 WCOSS transition August 20, 2013: GDAS/GFS model/analysis upgrade #1 April 2014: GDAS/GFS model/analysis upgrade #2 Jan - June 2015: phase 2 WCOSS transition Dec. 2015: GDAS/GFS/GEFS model/analysis upgrade #3 Beyond 2016 2

3. Global Upgrade #1 (Aug. 20, 2013) Primarily observation usage upgrade –Include METOP-B, NPP-CrIS, MSG-3 in data assimilation system –Possibly include post processor changes 3

4. Global upgrade #2 (April 2014) Probable components Model –T1534 Semi-Lagrangian (~13km globally) –Use of high resolution daily SST and sea ice analysis –Physics Cloud estimate modifications Radiation modifications High wind surface drag modification Convective gravity wave drag Dissipative heating Snow accumulation consistent between model and post-processor –Land Surface Removal of soil moisture nudging to climatology Modification of vegetation tables 20 category high resolution vegetation and high resolution soil type Spin up of land state 4

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6. Global upgrade #2 (April 2014) Probable components Analysis upgrades –GPSRO quality control enhancements + METOP-B GPSRO –Updates to radiance assimilation Assimilate SSM/IS UPP LAS (1-7,23-24) data for F-17,18 CRTM v2.1.3 Unified angle/airmass bias correction Adjustments to ob errors and channel usage –Satwind data GOES – hourly data EUMETSAT cloud top WV winds –EnKF modifications T574 semi-Lagrangian ensembles Ensemble hurricane relocation Stochastic physics for analysis ensembles Ensemble –Unification of analysis ensemble with GEFS ensemble –Ensemble resolution increase to T574L64 6

7. Global upgrade #3 (Dec. 2015) Potential components Model –Higher vertical resolution (~128 levels) - higher model top –Higher horizontal resolution –Physics WAM physics for higher levels Upgraded radiation (incremental neural net) Enhanced convective parameterization (for higher resolution) Upgrades to gravity wave drag –Coupled ocean/atmosphere/ice/land (also 1-d lake model) –Upgraded land and ocean models –Non-hydrostatic –NEMS infrastructure 7

8. Global upgrade #3 (Dec. 2015) Potential components Analysis upgrades –Cloudy radiances for microwave observations –Cloudy radiances for IR observations –Additional IASI, AIRS and CrIS channels (esp. moisture channels) –Improved use of surface land variables –Station by station conventional data QC and ob. errors –Bias correction for aircraft observations –4d hybrid assimilation –Enhanced variational Quality Control –Inclusion of diabatic effects in initialization Stochastic physics for ensembles 8

9. Related global system modifications Air quality model and Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) – Unified? –Lower horizontal resolution –WAM 600km top High atmosphere physics –Air Quality Inclusion of aerosols and chemistry Surface sources (daily estimate) Volcano sources 9

10. Beyond 2016 Model –Higher vertical and horizontal resolution –Improved physics –WAM and AQ applications – impact on deterministic run –Possible new dynamic core Analysis –Better use of current data –Use of more data –Improved use of cloud impacted radiances Collaboration with external groups to enhance global prediction system All work constrained by available human and computational resources and product delivery requirements 10