4. Think… “It’s all about the cleavages”

6.  System of Government: Presidential System  Distribution of Power: Federal System  Electoral System: Single Member District Plurality  Constitution: Constitution of 1999  Legislature: Bicameral—Senate and House of Rep.  Current Head of State: President Goodluck Jonathan  Head of Government: President Goodluck Jonathan  Current Ruling Party: People’s Democratic Party (PDP)  Major Political Parties: People’s Democratic Party (PDP) All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), Action Congress (AC)

7.  No Cross Cutting Cleavages ◦ Ethnic, Regional, and Religious Coincide…yikes!  No National Identity!  Nigeria is only 50 years old  Country created because of colonialism  Parliamentary system failed…why?  Presidential system is working…why?

8.  Nigeria is a megastate  Its importance is derived from its large population, oil reserves, and centrality to the study of Africa  Nigeria embodies the much of the variety of African political experience.

9.  Nigeria embodies of the variety of African political experience. ◦ varied heritage ◦ colonial rule ◦ Achievement of independence ◦ Political parties = ethnic cleavages ◦ Social welfare state/responsibility ◦ Pattern of violence and military dominance

10.  Provides useful insights into the challenges of developing nations  Major challenges facing Nigeria ◦ Maintaining the balance of civil/military relations ◦ Managing ethnic diversity ◦ Transitioning from autocratic/military rule to democracy ◦ Exploiting natural resources for public good ◦ Determining role of religion in politics

12. EthnicityRegionReligion Hausa-FulaniNorthMuslim YorubaCentral (West)Both IgboSouth (EastChristian

14.  Ethnic Identity ◦ Hausa-Fulani  Mostly northern half of Nigeria  Predominately Muslim  Legacy of emirates  Indirect colonial rule  Subsistence farming, rural, generally undeveloped villages ◦ Yoruba  Southwestern Nigeria  Lagos—former capital  Oba and lineage chiefs and the British  Fragmenting effect of multiple ethnic identities ◦ Igbo (lbo)  Southeastern part of Nigeria—OIL RICH REGION (tried to secede)  Predominantly Christian.  Responsive to western culture—Western educated  Developed for market agriculture

15.  The importance of ethnicity, religion, and region in the political life of Nigerians cannot be underestimated.  Most contentious political issues influence and/or are influenced by these three identities.  Biafran Civil War 1967-1970 ◦ Explicit ethnic overtones ◦ Eastern Igbo attempted to secede from the country  NO CROSS-CUTTING CLEAVAGES!

16.  Modern political culture characterized by ethnic diversity and conflict, corruption, and politically active military ◦ Patron-Clientelism (prebendalism) ◦ State control yet rich civil society ◦ Tension between modernity and tradition ◦ Religious conflict ◦ Ethnic diversity ◦ Geographic influences

17.  Nigerian Nationalism ◦ Three major sources  Freed slaves from N.A. others of African descent from the Caribbean  Nigerians who fought for the British in WWII  Frustration with lack of recognition for service  Nigerians who studied in U.K. and U.S.  Military Today

18.  Democratic Norms and Values ◦ Alternated between democratic and military rule ◦ Had both parliamentary and presidential system ◦ Maintaining stable democracy is challenge

19.  Democratic Norms and Values ◦ Cycle of Rule: 1.Democracy 2.Military rule with promise to return to democracy 3.Majority party would pass policies very easily and “funnel” resources of the state to its own ethnic group. 4.This would lead to frustration, hostility, and frequently a coup by one or more opposing parties or ethnic groups. ◦ The Presidential system has been somewhat more successful b/c of separation of powers ◦ Most of educated in Nigeria hold democratic values and have faith in the political process

20.  Political Role of Women ◦ Position of women varies immensely ◦ Igbo and Yoruba allow women to hold jobs and elected office. ◦ Hausa-Fulani restrict role of women (Islam) and have low rates of literacy and education and jobs ◦ In general Nigerian women vote in similar numbers as men but are underrepresented in government.  Political Corruption ◦ Major problem ◦ All governments claim will change, but don’t (can’t)

21.  To survive, or, more optimistically, flourish, Nigeria’s elected leaders face a myriad of economic and political challenges that will require a gradual and deliberate transformation bold enough to champion real change, but mindful that the military has the potential to return to power if given the opportunity.  The future of Nigeria hangs on this precarious balance

22. ◦ Ethnic/Religious Tensions ◦ Civil/Military Relations ◦ Regional Instability ◦ Corruption ◦ Financial transparency ◦ Poverty alleviation ◦ Quality health care ◦ Education ◦ Oil extraction ◦ HIV/AIDS

23.  Key Transition Year of1999: ◦ Nigeria returned to formal civilian rule when Olusegun Obasanjo was elected president.  Test of Current Government: ◦ How can a potentially wealthy country fail to provide basic human needs, education, potable water, reliable transportation and communications, and engage in politics without corruption?  Still ranked as one of the poorest and most corrupt countries in the world

24.  Nigeria’s Political Traditions can be divided into three specific eras: ◦ Pre-Colonial Era (800-1860) ◦ Colonial Era (1860-1960) ◦ Independence Era (1960-now)

25.  Pre-Colonial Era (800-1860)  Early Influence of Islam  Trade Connections  Kinship-based Politics  Complex Political Identities  Democratic Impulses

26.  Colonial Era (1860-1960)  Authoritarian Rule  Interventionist State  Individualism  Christianity  Intensification of Ethnic Politics

27.  Independence Era (1960-now)  Parliamentary-Style Government Replaced by Presidential System  Intensification of Ethnic Conflict  Military Rule  Personalized Rule and Corruption  Federalism  Dependence on Oil

28.  Nigerian Independence ◦ October 1, 1960  Two year honeymoon period  Conflict: tore apart the ruling coalition in the Western region  National census ◦ 1965 law and order broke down in Western Region over election-related fraud and violence ◦ Military ended the First Republic in a January 1966 coup ◦ Is there a role for obas and emirs in modern Nigeria?

29.  Agricultural Production & Sale of Commodities ◦ Colonialism had a huge impact on Nigerian economy ◦ British forced the production and export of certain goods ◦ Peasant farmers pushed to grow and export goods chosen by the British ◦ Nigeria became dependant on exports of commodities such as palm oil and cocoa ◦ Nigeria is now a net importer of food!

30.  Disease ◦ Malaria is a disease that affects most Nigerians ◦ HIV/AIDS: Pull on economy  Population Growth ◦ 45% of Nigeria is under 15 years of age. ◦ Children considered a valuable resource in agricultural societies ◦ Population is growing rapidly = negative impact on growth ◦ Sifting from rural to urban = smaller portion of labor force available for food production = drop in food production per capita

32.  Urbanization ◦ Quickly becoming urban society ◦ Urban infrastructure is strained as a result  Petroleum ◦ The curse of oil! ◦ Nigeria has relied on oil to finance imports and large scale development projects, thus fluctuations in markets control the ability of Nigeria to pay its debts ◦ This has caused high rates of inflation ◦ The location of the oil and the distribution of benefits have had political consequences, most notably in Biafra ◦ Biafra  Igbo population frustrated with central government for not distributing a greater share of oil wealth-thus their attempt to secede  Oil was main cause for Biafran Civil War 1967-1970

33.  Dist. Natural resources: Political Effects ◦ Eastern region of country holds oil reserves ◦ National government view: national resource ◦ Eastern citizens (Igbo) have yet reap full benefits of their treasure ◦ Direct cause of Biafra Independence movement: secession ◦ Individuals who own oil in east tend to be non-Igbo minorities ◦ Environmental degradation: east pays price while handing over most of the benefits. ◦ MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta)  The International Environment ◦ Biggest problem: debt it owes Western creditors ◦ Oil curse caused this ◦ Government spends a high percentage of national budget repaying debt—at the expense of social programs.

34.  Northerners have dominated the leadership of the country under military and civilian rule.  Military power ◦ Educated Igbo's have held leadership positions  Role of Nigerian universities  Civil service  No recruitment of “strangers”  Federal character of appointments of military personnel  Ethnic politics still dominate

35.  Parliamentary vs. Presidential ◦ Fusion of power vs. separation of power ◦ British established a parliamentary system like their own ◦ First Republic followed this pattern ◦ However, because parliamentary rule tends to yield easy results for the majority party and because stakes of losing are so high, parliamentary government led to massive conflict and ultimately failed

36.  Third Republic of 1993  Constitution of 1999 ◦ From 1983 to 1999, politics in Nigeria consisted of a succession of military regimes that planned a return to democracy ◦ Abubakar handed over power to a civilian regime outlined by a constitution in 1999 ◦ This is the structure of government that has existed since then.  Federalism ◦ Three level federalism: Federal, State and City ◦ The number of states has changed three time—from 3 to 19 to 30 to 36

37. ◦ Constitution of 1999  Calls for independently elected president  Dual chamber of national assembly at the federal level  3 Senators from each of 36 states, plus one from Abuja  Representatives determined by population  All legislators elected to four year terms ◦ KEY POINT!  Nigerian pluralism; lack of trust by subcultures  No institutional structure can overcome this roadblock.

38. ◦ Judiciary: Constitution of 1999  Supreme Court  Court of Appeal  State and Federal High Courts  Ten northern states maintain shari’a law courts  Overlapping system of judiciary has caused conflict

39.  Executive branch of government has been the most powerful  Current system is a federal system closely modeled after the U.S. presidential system  History ◦ First Republic:British Parliamentary System ◦ Second Republic:American Presidential System ◦ Third and Fourth:Revived Presidential Model

40.  Popularly elected to four-year term with maximum of two terms  Head of Government  Commander-in-Chief of armed forces  Head of State  Appoints government ministers (confirmed by Senate)—must come from all 36 states  Federal Executive Council: Ensures laws are properly implemented  President and ministers not allowed to serve in National Assembly

41.  National Assembly ◦ Bicameral with Senate and House of Representatives ◦ Popularly Elected ◦ All bills must pass both houses and be signed by President ◦ Senate  109 members: 3 from each state and one from Abuja ◦ House of Representatives  360 members

42.  Responsible for the interpretation of laws in accordance with the constitution.  Supreme Court (highest in the land)  Court of Appeal (federal and state)  Federal High Court (federal and state)  Shari’a Court of Appeal: ◦ Abuja and state courts

43.  Governor who is popularly elected  State House of Assembly ◦ Unicameral ◦ Comprised of popularly elected representatives from local government areas ◦ The number of members in each state assembly is comprised of three times the number of seats in the federal House of Representatives

44.  You cannot study Nigerian politics without recognizing the importance of the military in all aspects of political life.  A mix of ethnic groups  Well disciplined, organized, with the ability to make decisions efficiently and effectively  One of only sources of national unity  Armed forces also seen as more representative than political parties and other institutions of government that are subject to ethnic-based patronage.  HOWEVER, ethnic cleavages are the backdrop to military/authoritarian rule

45.  As with many “developing nations”, the bureaucracy has been the source of employment for large numbers of people not engaged in trade or agriculture.  Major source of corruption due to political instability, lack of accountability, and massive cash from oil production.  Bureaucracy has maintained its power throughout military and civilian rule

46.  The first political parties in Nigeria were, for the most part, ethnically based.  Little is done to reach out beyond ethnic power base ◦ Impact: ethicizing and regionalizing the national political process, turning politics into a zero-sum game of winners and losers

47.  Nigeria has an active civil society  Two main sources: ◦ Organized Interest Groups and “Clientelism”  Many formal associations have an ethnic base, but there are numerous informal associations as well  Professional organizations such as unions representing petroleum workers and formal professional associations play a role in politics.  Ethnic and Religious Associations ◦ MOSOP (Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People)  Spoke for those who owned land now occupied by oil rigs and has seen environmental destruction  Ken Saro-Wiwa  Imprisoned and executed by Abache military dictatorship

48.  Associational groups ◦ Labor Unions usually organized by sector ◦ Universities source of political activism ◦ National Union of Petroleum and Gas Workers (NUPENG) ◦ Nigerian Bar Association ◦ Nigerian Medical Association ◦ No farmer groups…ethnic divisions prevented this.  Non-associational Groups ◦ Kaduna Mafia  A network of powerful northern military leaders who maintain strong influence over military and politics and are engaged in organized crime  Patron-Client Networks ◦ Powerful political figures are able to mobilize support through personal connections with subordinates ◦ Clientelism

49.  Great range in activity ◦ Voting ◦ Civil war ◦ Violence; thugs  Without census data hard to assess  Mobilization of patron-client networks key to victory  Rise in honest and responsive institutions

50.  Constitution of 1999 written to promote national parties and to deflect conflict between ethnic groups  Goal of Constitution to ensure that candidates for office had broad public support  Example: It specified that to be elected president, a candidate would have to poll at least 25 percent of votes cast in at least two-thirds of states.

51.  1975 Elections controlled by Federal Elections Commission (FEDECO)  All parties must register with FEDECO  “Federal Character” of parties  Parties had to have at least two-thirds of all states to be able to run candidates  Indep. National Election Commission (INEC) 1999  Obasanjo was elected under this system PDP ◦ PDP: People’s Democratic Party ◦ As a northerner and a Hausa, he is a Christian and his candidacy received broad popular support

52.  Ethnic Solidarity and Party Loyalty ◦ In 1999 the party system had consolidated into three major parties. ◦ Each of these parties had a base of support from one of the three major ethnic groups ◦ However, due to the requirements of INEC (formerly FEDECO), each had to have regional support  Example: The PDP (People’s Democratic Party) is said to have it support in the north  Election of 2007 ◦ Umar Musa Yar’adua won ◦ The election marked first civilian-to-civilian transfer of power in Nigerian history ◦ Charges of widespread fraud and denial of voting rights

53.  People’s Democratic Party (PDP) ◦ Hausa-Fulani and North ◦ Obasanjo and Umar Musa Yar’adua  All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) 2003 ◦ Formally the All People’s Party APP 1999 ◦ Igbo and East/Southeast ◦ Main opposition party ◦ Ran Former General Muhammadu Buhari in 2003 and 2007.  Action Congress (AC) ◦ Merger of Alliance for Democracy, Justice Party, Advance of Democrats ◦ Yoruba and West/Southwest ◦ Ran Atiku Abubakar in 2007

54.  There are many policies that the current government is struggling with, including, corruption, debt, ethnic and religious conflict, HIV/AIDS, bureaucracy retraining  Nigeria’s public policies greatly affected by world community ◦ World Bank “Structural Adjustment Program” or SAP  Generally favors privatization and free trade ◦ International Monetary Fund ◦ Both have been active in attempts to restructure Nigeria’s debt  Nigeria depends on its income from oil ◦ Oil revenue income has been source of political corruption ◦ Oil revenues down, corruption and mismanagement prevent state from being able to pay teachers and civil servants ◦ OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) ◦ NNOC (Nigerian National Oil Corporation)

55.  Standard of living has not improved in recent years  Oil revenue has had little impact on GDP  Nigeria spends large portion of budget on military ◦ Has enabled them to maintain a high profile in the region  Increased number of children in schools  Poor performance on providing basic health care  Income gap between rich and poor increased  “national cake”: Federal gov. spends between two- thirds three fourths

57.  Dealing with Debt and SAP ◦ Borrowed heavily from foreign banks in 1970s ◦ High interested caused debt trap ◦ World Bank and IMF restructured much of the debt ◦ Spending to repay debt highest item in annual budget ◦ The problem of how to deal with debt is one of highest items of priority

58.  The Census Issue ◦ Major source of political conflict!...that’s right counting people ◦ More People = More Federal Money ◦ This is because each ethnic group fears that the count will inaccurately reflect larger opposing groups and that the state’s resources will be directed accordingly ◦ Also, in a country where federal subsidies make up the lion’s share of budgetary allocations at all levels, the distribution of population directly effects the distribution of resources.  Conclusions on Performance ◦ Read: page 442

59.  Has the population and resources to be a regional power  Economic Community of West African States ◦ Free trade zones ◦ Critic of international organizations’ monetary policy: World Bank, IMF  France- closer economic ties  U.S. and Britain – condemnation of military rulers

60.  Read page 443-444

61.  Population: 130 million  Territory: 356,668 sq. miles  Year of Independence: 1960  Year of Current Constitution: 1979 Constitution still partially in force; draft 1995 Constitution published and revised in 1999 (the 1999 Constitution)  Head of State: President Omaru Yar’Adua  Head of Government: President Omaru Yar’Adua  Language: English (official), Hausa,Yoruba, Igbo, (and 250 other ethnic groups)  Religion: ◦ Muslim: 50% ◦ Christian: 40% ◦ Indigenous beliefs: 10%