2. EMECO in an era of Climate Change Lowestoft, UK, 2-3 June, 2009

3. The new Norwegian Marine Resource Act states that: Ecosystem approach to research and  to knowledgebased Management  Precautionary principle Sustainable ecosystems Habitats and biodiversity Future generations No threats to species and Norway is the world’s 2nd largest exporter of fish

4. Climate-physics Fishing Climate-physics Many processes – we must choose and understand the most important

5. Climate

6. ”Oil activities” of potential harm for the marine ecosystems (+ birds) Seismic surveys Increased ship traffic Sedimentation of mud from drilling Produced water Accidental oil spills Aerial conflicts

7. Dimention of a 3D seismic array

8. Based on Beaugrand et al. (2002) All zooplankton species from warm-temperate to Arctic species have moved northwards from the cold 1960s to the present warm situation Warm-temperate Temperate Sub-arctic Arctic

9. Source: PINRO, Murmansk Regional-scale climate periods in North Atlantic Anthropogenic change Internannual variability Decadal-scale oscillations Multidecadal-scale oscillations

10. Total ice cover in the Arctic ROMS

11. Acidification of the ocean

12. Some scientific ”conclusions” No such thing as an “ecological balance” on these time-scales. Knowledge of the ecosystem dynamics is required to make proper evaluation and prediction of the combined impact of climate and fishing on a marine food web Due to the complexity of this challenge, it can only be explored by laboratory experiments and extensive use of mathematical models in combination with observations Maybe the acidification is the largest threat??

13. Standard sections - regional surveys – models Marine monitoring Observations (from ships satellites and buoys) are crucial for validation of and assimilation into the models

14. The ARGO program Can we add some “simple” acoustics to also measure plankton in the upper 2000 m??

15. Management advice is related to: Predict future development Answer to “what if” questions It is a matter of estimating the coupled effects of both natural and human pressures Advice is by its nature operational, meaning delivering useful information about the marine ecosystem at the right time and in the right format (about the past, now and in the future)

16. 16 i – Nord An Integrated System for Surveillance of the Arctic Oceans Bilde: Olav Rune Godø (Havforskningsinstituttet)

17. “Todays” larval distribution Dagens larvefordelinger Institute of Marine Research

18. 18 A European Marine “core” service clearly defined by the EC GMES Implementation Group From GMES MCS Implementation Group report by P.Ryder & al GMES

19. Spawning stock biomass (SSB) of Atlantic herring and the longterm-averaged temperature Stock collapse caused by overfishing under a cooling climate Start of the new herring period after 17 years of fishing moratorium and the formation of new strong year classes Long-term averaged temperature Toresen og Østvedt (2000)

20. Sundby (2000)

21. Climate responses of the Barents cod Sundby and Nakken (2008) In cold periods: - southward displacement - decrease in spawning- stock biomass In warm periods: - northward displacement - increase in spawning- stock biomass YearTemperature

22. The situation is quite well with respect to the most important fish stocks in our northern waters Relation between spawning stock and precautionary state Precautionary level Cod Haddock Saith

23. Schematic presentation on flow of knowlegde and decisions with regard to management of fisheries Broad knowlegde base of the fishery and stock Management objectives for utilization of the stock Harvest control rule Decision and distribution of TAC Implementation and control

24. ? Atlantic water temperature in the Barents Sea during the 20th century (PINRO and IMR) and Barents Sea temperature projections (Furevik et al. 2003) towards 2080 Sundby (2008) Temperature Year

25. Conclusions Fish stocks are strongly influenced by the ocean climate both directly and indirectly through other levels of the food web Multidecadal ocean climate oscillation may substantially contribute to modulate anthropogenic climate change through the 21st century Management advice is about predicting the (potential) future The ecosystem approach to sustainable management of the oceans is a major challenge requiring wise and strong leadership A hungry world  more ”farming” of the ocean??? We need to know why…… to better predict

26. Climate