1. Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand4
Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand
Marketing Management, 13th ed

2. Chapter Questions What constitutes good marketing research?
What are good metrics for measuring marketing productivity?
How can marketers assess their return on investment of marketing expenditures?
How can companies more accurately measure and forecast demand?
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3. Build-A-Bear Workshop makes the most of “interactive entertainment retailing”

4. What is Marketing Research?
Marketing research is the systematic design, collection, analysis, and reporting of data and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation facing the company.
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5. Types of Marketing Research Firms
Syndicated-
Service—trade
Information (Nielsen
Media Research--
track viewing habits of
varied audiences)
Custom
(Specific projects
Design study
Report findings)
Specialty-
Line
(interviewing
Services)

6. The Marketing Research Process
Define the problem
Develop research plan
Make
decision
Collect information
Analyze information
Present findings

7. Step 1
Define the problem (e.g., Will offering an in-flight Internet service create enough incremental preference and profit for American Airlines to justify its cost?)
Specify decision alternatives (e.g., Should American offer an Internet connection?)
State research objectives (e.g., types of 1st class passengers are likely to use internet?)

8. Step 2 1) Research Approach 2) Research Instruments 3) Sampling Plan
4) Contact
Methods
5) Data
Sources

9. Research Approaches Observation—unobtrusive (LP)
Ethnographic--link between culture & behavior &/or how cultural processes develop over time (participant observation) 
Focus group—discuss topics of interest (LS)
Survey—knowledge, beliefs, preferences, satisfaction
Behavioral data--Data—purchasing data
Experimentation—cause and effect relationships
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10. Focus Group in Session

11. Research Instruments Questionnaires Qualitative Measures
Technological Devices
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12. Questionnaire Do’s and Don’ts
Ensure questions are free of bias
Make questions simple
Make questions specific
Avoid jargon
Avoid sophisticated words
Avoid ambiguous words
Avoid negatives
Avoid hypothetical's
Avoid words that could be misheard
Use mutually exclusive categories
Allow for “other” in fixed response questions
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13. Question Types - Dichotomous
In arranging this trip, did you contact American Airlines?
 Yes  No
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14. Question Types – Multiple Choice
With whom are you traveling on this trip?
 No one
Spouse
Spouse and children
Children only
Business associates/friends/relatives
An organized tour group
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15. Question Types – Likert Scale
Indicate your level of agreement with the following statement: Small airlines generally give better service than large ones.
 Strongly disagree
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
Strongly agree
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16. Question Types – Semantic Differential
American Airlines
Large ………………………………...…….Small
Experienced………………….….Inexperienced
Modern……………………….…..Old-fashioned
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17. Question Types – Importance Scale
Airline food service is _____ to me.
 Extremely important
Very important
Somewhat important
Not very important
Not at all important
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18. Question Types – Rating Scale
American Airlines’ food service is _____.
 Excellent
Very good
Good
Fair
Poor
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19. Question Types – Intention to Buy Scale
How likely are you to purchase tickets on American Airlines if in-flight Internet access were available?
 Definitely buy
Probably buy
Not sure
Probably not buy
Definitely not buy
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20. Question Types – Completely Unstructured
What is your opinion of American Airlines?
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21. Question Types – Word Association
What is the first word that comes to your mind when you hear the following?
Airline ________________________
American _____________________
Travel ________________________
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22. Question Types – Sentence Completion
When I choose an airline, the most important consideration in my decision is: ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________.
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23. Question Types – Story Completion
“I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that the exterior and interior of the plane had very bright colors. This aroused in me the following thoughts and feelings.” Now complete the story. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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24. Question Types – Picture (Empty Balloons)
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25. Question Types – Thematic Apperception Test
Make up a story that reflects what you think is happening in this picture.

26. Qualitative Measures
Word association—words are presented, one at a time, and respondents mention the first word that comes to mind.
Projective techniques—give people an incomplete stimulus and ask them to complete it.
Empathy—the experiencing as one’s own of the feelings or another.
Visualization—requires people to create a collage from magazine or drawing to depict their perceptions
Brand personification—ask subjects what kind of person they think of when the brand is mentioned.
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27. Qualitative Measures
Laddering—series of increasingly more specific “why” questions can reveal consumer motivation and consumers’ deeper, more abstract goals.
Means End Chain theory--hierarchy of consumer perceptions and product knowledge that ranges from attributes (A) to consumption consequences (C) to personal values (V), as follows:
attributes—At the top level of this hierarchy, attributes are most recognizable by individuals. Individuals recognize the attributes of a product or system easily. For example, “I like this car, because it is a convertible.”
consequences—In turn, the attributes have consequences for the individual. For example, the convertible makes its driver feel young and free. Each attribute may have one or more consequences for any given individual.
core values—Finally, each consequence is linked to a core value of the person’s life. For example, the sense of youth makes that driver feel attractive.
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28. Qualitative Measures Shadowing—observing people
Behavior mapping—photographing people with a space—2 or 3 days
Consumer journey—keeping track of interactions a consumer has with a product, service, or space
Camera journals—ask consumers to keep visual diaries of activities and impression related to a product
Extreme user interviews—talking to people about a product and evaluating their experience with it
Storytelling—prompting people to tell personal stories about their consumer experiences
Unfocused groups—interview a diverse group of people to explore ideas

29. Technological Devices
Galvanometers (measure
interest or emotions aroused by
Exposure to a specific ad or picture)
Tachistoscope (flashes an ad to a
Subject with an exposure interval and
respondent describes everything he/she recalls)
Eye cameras (study respondents’
eye movement to see where their eyes
land 1st and how long, etc.)
Audiometers (record when TV is on
and the channel)
GPS (global positioning system, can
Determine how many billboards a person
may walk or drive by during a day)

30. Sampling Plan Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed?
Sample size: How many people should be surveyed?
Sampling procedure: How should the respondents be chosen?
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31. Types of Samples Non-probability Probability Convenience
Selects the most accessible population members
Judgment
Selects population members who are good prospects for accurate information
Quota
Selects and interviews a prescribed number of people in each of several categories
Probability
Simple random
Every member of population has an equal chance of selection
Stratified random
Population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (age groups) and random samples are drawn from each group
Cluster area
Population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (city blocks) and a sample is taken from each group

32. Contact Methods Telephone Interview Personal Interview
Mail Questionnaire
(For people that would not give
personal interviews or whose responses
might be biased or distorted by interviewer)
Telephone Interview
(Gather information quickly, however
interview are short and non-personal)
Personal Interview
(Most versatile and expensive,
subject to interview bias or distortion)
Online Interview
(Inexpensive, faster, honest, versatile, samples small
and skewed, tech problems and inconsistencies)

33. Pros and Cons of Online Research
Advantages
Inexpensive
Fast
Accuracy of data, even for sensitive questions
Versatility
Disadvantages
Small samples
Skewed samples
Technological problems
Inconsistencies
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34. What is a Marketing Decision Support System (MDSS)?
A marketing decision support system is a coordinated collection of data, systems, tools, and techniques with supporting hardware and software by which an organization gathers and interprets relevant information from business and environment and turns it into a basis for marketing action.
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35. Barriers Limiting the Use of Marketing Research
A narrow conception of the research
Uneven caliber of researchers
Poor framing of the problem
Late and occasionally erroneous findings
Personality and presentational differences
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36. What are Marketing Metrics?
Marketing metrics are the set of measures that helps marketers quantify, compare, and interpret marketing performance.
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37. Marketing Metrics External Awareness Market share Relative price
Number of complaints
Customer satisfaction
Distribution
Total number of customers
Loyalty
Internal
Awareness of goals
Commitment to goals
Active support
Resource adequacy
Staffing levels
Desire to learn
Willingness to change
Freedom to fail
Autonomy

38. What is Marketing-Mix Modeling?
Marketing-mix models analyze data from a variety of sources, such as retailer scanner data, company shipment data, pricing, media, and promotion spending data, to understand more precisely the effects of specific marketing activities.
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39. Marketing Dashboards
A customer-performance scorecard records how well the company is doing year after year on customer-based measures.
A stakeholder-performance scorecard tracks the satisfaction of various constituencies who have a critical interest in and impact on the company’s performance including employees, suppliers, banks, distributors, retailers, and stockholders.
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40. Common Measurement Paths
Customer metrics pathway—how prospects become customers, from awareness to preference to trail to repeat purchase.
Unit metrics pathway—sales of product/service units (e.g., how much sold by product line &/or geography)
Cash-flow metrics pathway—how well marketing expenditures are achieving short-term returns.
Brand metrics pathway—brand equity measures to assess both the perceptual health of the brand from customer and prospective customer perspectives as well as the overall financial health of the brand
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41. Sample Customer-Performance Scorecard Measures
% of new customers to average #
% of lost customers to average #
% of win-back customers to average #
% of customers in various levels of satisfaction
% of customers who would repurchase
% of target market members with brand recall
% of customers who say brand is most preferred

42. Sales Analysis Sales- Micro- Variance Sales Analysis Analysis
(Relative contribution of
different factors to a gap in
Sales performance)
Micro-
Sales
Analysis
(views specific products,
territories that fail to
produce expected sales)

43. The Measures of Market Demand
Potential market—interest
Available market—interest, income, access
Target market—qualified available, company pursues
Penetrated market—buying product
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44. Vocabulary for Demand Measurement
Market demand—total volume that would be bought by a defined customer group in a defined geographical area in a defined time period in a defined marketing environment under a defined marketing program.
Market forecast—expected level of industry expenditure
Market potential—upper limit of industry expenditure
Company demand—estimated share of market demand at alternative levels of company marketing effort in a given time period.
Company sales forecast—expected level of company sales based on a chosen marketing plan and an assumed marketing environment.
Company sales potential—sales limit approached by company demand as company marketing effort increases relative to that of competitors.
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45. Estimating Current Demand
Total market potential
Maximum amount of sales available to all the firms in an industry during:
a given period
under a given level of industry marketing effort, and
environmental conditions.
Area market potential
Market buildup method
Identifying all potential buyers in each market and estimating their potential purchases
Multiple-factor index method
Sales are directly related to a series of indices
Brand development index
Index of brand sales to category sales

46. Estimating Future Demand
Survey of Buyers’ Intentions—probability of purchase
Composite of Sales Force Opinions—salespeople
Expert Opinion—dealers, distributors, suppliers, marketing consultants, trade associations
Past-Sales Analysis—trend, cycle, seasonal, erratic
Market-Test Method—select some territories to sell the product

47. Study Question 1 ________ is the systematic design,
collection, analysis, and reporting of data and
findings relevant to a specific marketing
situation facing the company.
Marketing intelligence
MIS (marketing information system)
Marketing research
Demographics
Marketing management

48. Study Question 2
Which of the following types of marketing research firms
would best be described as being one that gathers consumer
and trade information which they sell for a fee (e.g., Nielsen
Media Research)?
Custom marketing research firms
Syndicated-service research firms
Specialty-line marketing research firms
General-line marketing research firms
Nonprofit marketing research firms

49. Study Question 3 The first step in the marketing research
process is to ________.
develop a research plan
define the problem and research objectives
analyze the internal environment
read marketing research journals
contact a professional consultant

50. Study Question 4 ________ are data that were collected for
another purpose and already exist.
Primary data
Secondary data
Tertiary data
Inordinate data
Ordinate data

51. Study Question 5
With respect to the sampling plan, three decisions must be
made: (1) the sampling unit—who is to be surveyed; (2)
sample size—how many people should be surveyed; and (3)
________.
sample cost—how much the sampling costs
surveyor skill—who does the surveying
sample security—how to protect the sample data
sampling procedure—how the respondents are chosen
sample supervisor—who leads the sampling effort