1. Big picture transport planning When precision fails and approximation succeeds

2. Transport planning and models Transport planning - the operation, management and adjustment of the transport system Quantified techniques (analysis assessment and forecasting) are needed Models of different types are available to assist these processes

3. Problems Transport planning has not delivered on broader objectives One reason for this is the reliance on narrowly focused models Another reason is the failure to apply strategic techniques to assist in seeing the big picture

4. Results The effect of current transport modelling efforts in NZ has been to perpetuate ‘business as usual’ This means that most trends (emissions, delay, reliability, choice, accessibility, equity) will continue to move in the wrong direction New national targets for transport will not be achieved using current approaches

5. Does it have to be this way? No Providing there is a commitment to better analysis, assessment and forecasting Many techniques and models already exist – but they need to be well developed and appropriately applied

6. Conventional models (1) Conventional transport models may cover 3 stages: trip generation / attraction, trip distribution, and trip assignment. 4 stage models also have a mode split function. 3 and 4 stage models use distribution functions such as (T ij = αP i P j / C n ij ). Responsiveness is often poor - induced or suppressed demand is not allowed for – and ‘implied elasticities’ may be weak

7. Conventional models (2) Conventional transport models are good at predicting ‘business as usual’ (expected land-use, population, car ownership and on the basis of current policies and prices) They are used to test policies, strategies, packages and programmes.

8. Conventional models (3) Many models are single stage and only deal with traffic engineering issues. Models are used to provide information for economic appraisal – the benefit cost ratio – very influential in decision making 1 stage models – often appear to be very precise – especially micro-simulation – very impressive visually and useful for sorting out some issues – but not all

11. Strategic gap Improvements in modelling are underway at the regional and local levels – although these will not cover all needs But there is currently a modelling ‘void’ at the inter-regional and national levels It takes time for a national modelling capability to be developed

12. Simplified demand modelling Conventional transport models are based on detailed representations of transport networks and on current behaviour Simplified demand modelling is much coarser grained but has more flexibility to consider behavioural responses – and could be said to represent ‘5th stage’ modelling

13. Strategy review model An example of a simplified demand model is the strategy review model (SRM) developed in 2008 in NZ SRM builds on current model outputs Based on elasticities, cross elasticities, diversion rates and impact factors It has been applied at the local, regional and national level for sensitivity testing and policy development purposes

14. Modelling Framework © Copyright TFL 2008. National & Regional Comparative Views SRM Urban and Metropolitan Model SRM Inter-Zonal Model SRM Data Editor Urban & Met Location Modelling Datasets Location Result Datasets SRM National Compiler Inter-Zonal Location Modelling Datasets Programme Assistance

15. SRM Urban and Metropolitan Models

16. Exit Clickable map data loading © Copyright TFL 2008.

17. Exit Adjust model settings using sliders and drop down selections © Copyright TFL 2008.

18. Exit Consolidated Views

19. Exit Results summarised for modelled periods Targets, BAU and modelled impact

20. Exit Sample Comparative Views Comparing regional outcomes  Walking and Cycling by Location  PT Patronage by Location  SOV VKT per capita by Location  VKT at E and F by Location  Speed by Location  CO2 Volume by Location  Per Capita Co2 by Location  Per Capita PT Patronage by Location  Per Capita VKT at E and F  Per Capita Walking and Cycling Trips by Location  PT Modesplit by Location  Walking and Cycling Modesplit by Location  Car Driver Modelsplit by Location  Car Passenger Modesplit by Location  Per Capita Co2 Target by Location  Per Capita PT Trips Target by Location  Per Capita Walking and Cycling Trips Target by Location

21. The future? (1) Role of mathematicians in supporting the development of new techniques - especially in the field of simplified demand modelling Especially in terms of how the robustness and validity of models can be improved One example, the treatment of arc-based elasticities.

22. The future? (2) Role of operational research in optimising target profiles. Maximising the good (public transport, walking and cycling) Minimising the bad (travel time variability, single occupant vehicles, emissions) Within given constraints – such as cost and funding

24. Public transport example