1. The Human Population and it’s impact

2. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically
Early Hunter Gatherers
Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the Earth
Practiced Intentional Birth Control
Rise of Agriculture
Necessary for Survival
Animals became extinct via predation and altered habitat
Humans began to cultivate own food

3. C. Agriculture Gives Rise to Cities
Food Produced in Country, Consumed in City
Food wastes are no longer returned to soil
Soil becomes less productive
Waste of Populations Concentrated in Cities
Population Control in Medieval Societies
Infanticide
Plagues
D. Industrialization
View of Children During Early Phases of Industrial Growth
Valued as cheap source of income and cheap labor
Exponential growth of populations
By 1900s, Birth Rate in Industrialized World Dropped
Rise in standards of living
Safe and inexpensive means of birth control introduced
Increase in the cost of child rearing

5. MI L I O NS

6. Current World Population
Population Clock Vital Events (per time unit)
Global population was 6,379,870,732
On November 2, 2004 at 11:05 am
The global population grows by:
Nearly 4 persons per seconds
Over 225,000 persons per day
Over 82 million persons per year

7. Uneven distribution of population growth
Developed – 0.1% per year
Developing – 1.5% per year

8. Projections in 2050 10.7 billion
World population growth – 1.22% per year

9. How Much is a Billion? 1,000 seconds = 16.7 minutes
1 million-s = 16,677 min = 11.6 days
1 billion-s = 11,574 days = 31.7 years
1,000 pennies = ~ 88 ounces = 5.5 pounds
1 million pennies = 5,500 pounds (~1-Suburban)
1 billion pennies = 2,750 tons (~2 Space Shuttles)

10. Factors for population increase
ability to expand into new habitats and climate zones
emergence of modern agriculture
improved health care, sanitation,sourcs of water

11. Human Population Dynamics
There are just three sources of change in population size —
fertility (births)
mortality (deaths)
"natural decrease" refers to population decline resulting from more deaths than births
migration
Net migration is the number of immigrants minus emigrants

12. Rates of Global Pop. Change use: International Data Base http://www
Rates of Global Pop. Change use: International Data Base then Online Demographic Aggregation
CBR (crude birth rate) = # births / 1000 population
1990: 24 now: 20.6
CDR (crude death rate) = # deaths / 1000 population
1990: 9 now: 8.8
Growth Rate = (b + i) – (d + e)
1990: 1.5% now: 1.19%
growth rates have come down

13. World Crude Birth Rates

14. World crude Death Rates

15. Totals Fertility Rate

16. Human Population Dynamics
Total fertility rate (TFR)
The average number of children born to a woman
Average in developed countries = 1.5
Average in developing countries = 3.8
Worldwide 1990: 3.1 now: 2.76
Replacement fertility rate (RFR)
The number of children a couple must have to replace themselves
A TFR of 2.1 for developed countries with low infant and child mortality rates
Africa RFR = 2.5

17. Factors affecting fertility rate
children part of labor force
cost of raising and educating children
availability of pension system
World TFR has dropped from 5. 7 to 1.6

18. Factors affecting death rate
increased life expectancy
urbanization
education and job opportunities for women

19. Infant Mortality Rate measure of a nations quality of life
infant deaths per 1000 live births (infant < 1 yr)
1990: 62 now: 52.4 (normal in 1900: 200)

20. http://www. povertymap

21. Overall, the world population is growing at a rate of about 1
Overall, the world population is growing at a rate of about 1.7 per cent; if this rate continues, the population will double in 42 years.
Unabated, such a rate would lead to a point about 2000 years hence when the mass of humanity would weigh more, and be larger, than the Earth.
But, the growth rate is decreasing

22. Population Pyramids Graphic device: bar graph
shows the age and gender composition of a region
pre-reproductive, reproductive, post-reproductive
horizontal axis: gender
male: left-hand female: right-hand
absolute number of people or %
vertical axis: age
5-year or 10-year age groups

23. Population Pyramid with young cohorts

24. Population Pyramids High Growth: Afghanistan
Population Pyramids on the Web
High Growth: Afghanistan

26. Population Pyramids Population Pyramids on the Web
Moderate Growth: Mexico

28. Population Pyramids
Population Pyramids on the Web
Zero Growth: U.S.

30. Tracking the baby-boom generation in the United States

32. Population Pyramids Negative Growth: Italy
Population Pyramids on the Web
Negative Growth: Italy

34. Effects of Population Decline
As percentage of 60+ aged people increases, population begins decline
60+population increase --> severe economic and social problems because 60+ consume
more medical care
Social Security
costly public services
Labor shortages require automation & immigration

35. Demographic Transition
Movement of a nation from high population growth to low population as it develops economically
Transition as a result of four stages
Stage 1—Birth and death rates are both high
Stage 2—Death rates fall; birth rates remain high; growth rate rises
Stage 3—Birth rates fall as standard of living rises; growth rate falls
Stage 4—Growth rate continues to fall to zero or to a negative rate

37. Five Stages of the Demographic Transition
Used to be 4, now 5 stages
birth rates, death rates and growth rates systematically change through time as societies change:
modernize, urbanize
gain access to technology

38. Stage 1
high birth rates, high (at time erratic) death rates, low growth rates
stage for much of human history, traditional societies
practically no country today

39. Stage 2 high birth rates, declining death rates, rising growth rates
improvements in
sanitation (water)
and medicine
in Europe during Industrial Revolution
in developing countries since the 50s/60s
much of Africa today, some countries of Asia (Afghanistan, Nepal, etc.)

40. Stage 3 continued decline of death rates, declining birth rates,
growth rates decline from
high to lower levels
change in behavior: adaptation to lower death rate, in particular infant mortality rate
economic change: urbanization (incentive to have fewer children)
Mexico today

41. Stage 4 & 5 Stage 4: low birth rates, low death rates, low
growth rates
United States today
Stage 5: low birth rates, rising death rates, declining growth rates (if birth rates drop below death rates: negative growth rates)
several countries of Europe today (Austria)

42. Population Pyramids and Demographic Stages
characteristics shapes of ‘pyramids’
wide base (true pyramid)
wide middle (bulge), somewhat wider base
urn- or bottle-shaped
reversed pyramid
different shapes--different dynamics

43. Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
Stage 2: wide base
stage 3: wide middle
stage 4: slender
stage 5: narrow base

44. Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
Stage 2: wide base
stage 3: wide middle
stage 4: slender
stage 5: narrow base

45. Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
Stage 2: wide base
stage 3: wide middle
stage 4: slender
stage 5: narrow base

46. Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
Stage 2: wide base
stage 3: wide middle
stage 4: slender
stage 5: narrow base

47. What Is Family Planning?
Definition
Measures enabling parents to control number of children (if they so desire)
Goals of Family Planning
Not to limit births
For couples to have healthy children
For couples to be able to care for their children
For couples to have the number of children that they want

48. Sustainable Cities

49. Definitions Urban (metropolitan) area = town plus its suburbs
City = large number of people with a variety of professions who depend on resources from the outside of city boundary
Rural area = an area with a population less than 2,500 people
Village = group of rural households liked by custom, culture,family ties. Historical utilization of natural resources

50. Urbanization & Urban growth
Degree of urbanization is percentage of population living in area of greater than 2,500 people
Urban growth due to:
natural increase - births
immigration - poor are pulled to urban areas or are pushed from rural areas
Trends of urban growth:
Increase of 2% to 45% of people in urban areas since 1950
By 2050 about 66% of the world’s people will be living in urban areas.

51. Urbanization & Urban growth
The number of large cities is mushrooming
Today, more than 400 cities have over 1 mil. or more people.
18 megacities with over 10 mil. People i.e.Tokyo (26 mil), Mexico City (18 mil), New York (17 mil).
4 Hypercities (more than 20 million people)- Mumbai(India) , Lagos(Nigeria), Dakha(Bangladesh) Sao Paulo(Brazil)
2009 :38% of the people in live in cities.
2025 it will be 54%.
Many of these cities are already short on water, have waste & pollution problems.

52. Urbanization & Urban Growth
Urban growth is slower in developed countries
75% of the people live in cities. But by 2030 it will be 81%.
Poverty is becoming increasingly urbanized
slums, squatter settlements and shantytowns
at least 1 billion people live in crowed slums of inner cities. No access to water, sewer, electricity, education etc. 100 mil people are homeless & sleep on the streets
Case study - Mexico City

53. United States Urbanization 1800- 2008 = 5%-79%
Migration from rural areas
Migration to developed rural areas
Large central cities to suburbs
North east to South and West
Urban sprawl, growth of low-density development on the edge of cities. Encouraged by:
- availability of cheap land, (forests, agriculture fields etc.).
- government loans guarantees for new single-family homes
- government & state funding of highways
- low-cost gasoline encourage car use
- low interest mortgage

54. Urban sprawl: growth of low density housing
availability of cheap land
government loans for new single family homes
government and state funding of highways
low cost gasoline
tax laws encourage home ownership
multiple political jurisdictions which do not work together to control urban growth

55. Concentric Circle Model
Central business district (CBD)
Deteriorating transition zone
Worker’s homes
Middle-class suburbs
Commuter's zone

56. Sector Model High-rent residential Intermediate-rent residential
Low-rent residential
Education and recreation
Transportation
Industrial
Core (CBD)

57. Multiple-Nuclei Model
CBD
Wholesale, light manufacturing
Low-rent residential
Intermediate-rent residential
High-rent residential
Heavy manufacturing
Outlying business district
Residential Suburb
Industrial Suburb

58. Major Urban Problems in U.S.
Deteriorating services
Aging infrastructures
Budget crunches from lost tax revenues as businesses and affluent people leave
Rising poverty with violence, drugs, decay
Urban sprawl - growth of low-density development on edges of cities and towns
9 consequences of “bad growth”

59. Advantages of Urbanization
recycling more economically feasible
decreased birth rates reduces environmental pressures
per capita expenditures on environmental protection high in urban areas
population concentration impacts biodiversity less

60. Disadvantages of Urbanization
Destruction of plant life - what is $ value?
Cities produce little of own food
Urban heat island effect --> dust dome
Huge ecological footprint
Water supply and flooding problems
5 ways to reduce demand on reservoirs and waste treatment systems
High pollution exposure
Noise pollution

61. The enormous amount of heat generated creates an urban heat island
Additional heat changes climate of surrounding area

63. Transportation and Urban Development
Determines where people live, where they go to work and buy stuff, how much land is paved and exposure to air pollution
Cities grow up if they can’t grow out; more prone to use mass transit
Urban sprawl due to cheap gas and land and highways; dispersed car-centered cities use 10x more energy

64. Smart growth tools for cities
Regulations
Zoning
Planning Protection
Taxes
Tax Break
Revitalization

65. Sustainable Cities Initiative:
International Development Days
Vancouver, BC October 2 – 4, 2002
Sustainable Cities Initiative:
Opportunities for the
Canadian Private Sector
Maureen C. Shaw
Industrial Accident Prevention Association
October 3, 2002
Website:

66. Vision
"A World where risks are controlled because everyone believes suffering and loss are morally, socially and economically unacceptable."
Mission
To improve the quality of life in workplaces and communities we serve by being an internationally recognized leader in providing effective programs, products and services for the prevention of injury and illness.

67. Essential Components of Sustainable Cities
Economic Security
Environmental Integrity
living within ecological limits
protecting natural resources
responsible consumption patterns; re-use & recycling
measurable carrying capacity indicators
local, regional economic viability
opportunities for employment
economic justice/equity
reduce gap between rich and poor
economic security
appropriate technology and economics
long term view not short term gains
Quality of Life
Democratic Participation
diversity
cooperation
health
education
communication
compassion
efficient, affordable, accessible transportation
linking jobs to housing and communities
honouring culture
pluralism and tolerance
communication, education, information, collaboration
all stakeholders represented and involved
power from within the community
belief in the possibility of change
democracy
accountability
personal dignity
grassroots organizations
Source
Dr. Warren Flint
Five E’s Unlimited

68. Sustainable Cities
Traditional Corporate Responsibilities
Ensuring Health, Safety, Wellness & Security of Employees
Management of Natural Resources 
Conservation
Minimizing Waste
Recycling
Minimizing Pollution
Compliance with Regulations & Legislation
Based on European Sustainable Cities Report

69. Sustainable Cities Sharing Best Practices  Mentoring
Corporate Community & Workplace Leadership Imperatives
Sharing Best Practices 
Mentoring
Concern for Individuals Colleagues & Neighbours
Social Responsibility to Community & Workplace Activities
Support of Cultural Heritage
Political Influence Locally
Nationally
Maureen C. Shaw - IAPA