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Regional Housing Market Outlook presented to Home Builders & Remodelers of Central New York March 14, 2008 Robert Denk ASVP, Forecasting & Analysis.

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Presentation on theme: "Regional Housing Market Outlook presented to Home Builders & Remodelers of Central New York March 14, 2008 Robert Denk ASVP, Forecasting & Analysis."— Presentation transcript:

1 Regional Housing Market Outlook presented to Home Builders & Remodelers of Central New York March 14, 2008 Robert Denk ASVP, Forecasting & Analysis

2 US Single Family Housing Starts Thousands of Units, SAAR Source: US Census Bureau, NAHB

3 Local Local Local Local Local Local Local LocalLocal LocalLocal LocalKey Factors:Local LocalLocal LocalEconomic –Local LocalIncome, Employment,Local LocalPopulationLocal LocalLocal LocalHousing Market –Local LocalHouse Prices,Local LocalInventoriesLocal LocalLocal LocalSpecial –Local LocalSubprime ExposureLocal LocalLocal Local Local Local Local Local Local Local LocalLocal

4 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

5 Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)

6 Source: OFHEO

7

8 (un)Affordability Source: US Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors Median House Price / Median Income

9 Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn, National Delinquency Survey

10 The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Source: US Census Bureau Single Family Building Permits, Thousands of Units, SAAR

11 Houston, TX Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO Single Family Building Permits, ThousandsPercent Change in Prices

12 Baltimore, MD Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO Percent Change in PricesSingle Family Building Permits, Thousands

13 Cape Coral, FL Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO Percent Change in PricesSingle Family Building Permits, Thousands

14 Syracuse, NY Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO Percent Change in PricesSingle Family Building Permits, Thousands

15 (un)Affordability Source: US Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors Median House Price / Median Income

16 US: -25% Single-Family Permits Growth (YTD_Dec’07 over Average YTD_Dec’00-Dec’03) <= -41% -41% to -31% -31% to -21% -21% to -11% -11% to 0% >0% Source: US Census Bureau

17 <= -41% -41% to -31% -31% to -21% -21% to -11% -11% to 0% >0% Single-Family Permits Growth (YTD_Dec’07 over Average YTD_Dec’00-Dec’03 ) US: -25%

18 Single Family Housing Starts US - Thousands of Units, Syracuse - Number of Units, SAAR Source: US Census Bureau, NAHB US Syracuse

19 Contact Info: Robert Denk ASVP, Forecasting & Analysis 202-266-8698 RDENK@NAHB.COM


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