Presentation on theme: "California Health Care Employment Outlook:"— Presentation transcript:
1 California Health Care Employment Outlook: 2010-20 Richard HoldenRegional CommissionerU.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsCHWA/CHPC MeetingSeptember 6, 2012
2 Employment Projections Background 10-year projections made every 2 yearsprojections cover over 700 occupations and 300 industriesProjections are used to produce the Occupational Outlook Handbook—which has been published since 1949The BLS Employment Projections Program produces a new set of 10-year projections every 2 years.The National Employment Matrix covers over 700 detailed occupations and 300 detailed industries. (Exact numbers are 749 occupations and 328 industries.)The projections form the basis for data and outlook information in the Occupational Outlook Handbook, with a new edition of the Handbook released shortly after each new set of projections is published. (The edition of the Handbook, prepared using projections, is expected to be released in late March 2012.)Other users of the projections include:Career counselors and students making career choice decisionsMid-career jobseekers looking to switch occupationsState educational program planners reviewing curriculum
3 Other Uses of Employment Projections Data Career counselors and students making career choice decisionsMid-career jobseekers looking to switch occupationsEducation and training officials to make decisions on policy, funding, and program offeringsResearchers interested in how the economy is changingA wide variety of people use employment projections data. This includes but is not limited to:Career counselors and students making career choice decisionsMid-career jobseekers looking to switch occupationsState educational program planners reviewing curriculumResearchers interested in how the economy is changing
4 Employment Projections Process Labor ForceTotal and by age, sex, race and ethnicityAggregate EconomyGDP, total employment, and major demand categoriesDemographicsFiscal policyForeign economiesEnergy pricesMonetary policyPopulationLabor force participation rate trendsOccupational EmploymentJob openings due to growth & replacement needsIndustry Final DemandSales to consumers, businesses, government, and foreignersStaffing patternsStaffing pattern ratio analysesStaff expertiseReplacement ratesEconomic censusesAnnual economic surveysOther data sourcesThe BLS projections are developed in a series of six steps-Size and demographic composition of the labor forceThe labor force is the number of people available to fill job openings. The projected labor force is based on estimates from the Census Bureau of the future population by age, sex, race, and ethnicity. BLS projects the percent of the population who will participate in the labor force in the coming decade.The growth of the aggregate economyA macroeconomic model is used to project Gross Domestic Product, consumer spending, investment, government spending, imports and exports, and other major economic measures.Final demand by industry sectorThe projected final demand categories are disaggregated to project the final demand, in sales to consumers, for each industry sector.Industry outputInput-Output tables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis are used to determine the relationships between industries and project the output that will be needed from each industry to satisfy the final demand from the previous step, including outputs which are used by other industry sectors as an input towards satisfying their final demand.Industry employmentThe BLS models industry employment as a function of industry output, wages, prices, and time. Together with the industry output projections, employment results provide a measure of labor productivity. BLS analysts examine the implied growth rates in projected productivity for consistency with historical trends. At the same time, analysts attempt to identify industries that may deviate from past behavior because of changes in technology or other factors. Where appropriate, changes to the employment estimates are made by modifying either the employment demand itself or the results from earlier steps in the projections process.Occupational employmentOccupational demand is projected by applying each industry’s unique staffing pattern to industry employment estimates. BLS analysts consider changes in technology, business practices, and other factors to project how staffing patterns will evolve over the coming decade. Occupational replacement needs are also projected to help determine the total number of job openings projected to be available in each occupation.Industry EmploymentLabor productivity, average weekly hours, wage & salary employmentIndustry OutputUse and Make Relationships, Total Requirements TablesIndustry outputSector wage ratesTechnological changeInput-Output Tables44
5 Population and Labor Force Millions of personsPopulation projections shown here are for the civilian non-institutional population aged 16 and over, which excludes members of the Armed Forces and the institutional population.Fertility, mortality and most importantly, immigration are the main drivers of population growth. Immigrants have high labor force participation rates that, in addition to their increasing numbers, impacts the growth of the labor force.Population growth and changes in labor force participation rates are the main factors of labor force growth.To be in the civilian labor force, one must be part of the civilian, non-institutional population, 16 years or older, and either working or actively looking for a job.The number of persons working or looking for work is projected to increase by 10.5 million over the period, compared to 16.7 million from and 11.3 million fromBLS labor force projections are made for 136 age, race, sex and Hispanic origin groups.20002010Projected 202020002010Projected 2020Population Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6 Population Growth Rate Annual rates of changeThe growth of the civilian non-institutional population, 16 and over is projected to slow over the period.Since 2000, the labor force has experienced a significant slow down replacing the higher rates of growth experienced fromLabor force growth rates have been and will continue to be greatly impacted by the baby boom generation (persons born between 1946 and 1964).The labor force growth over the period mainly reflected the entry of the baby boomers into the labor force.This period also coincided with a huge increase in the labor force participation of women.The projected slowing of the labor force is mainly attributable to the retiring of the earliest baby boomers. By 2020, all baby boomers will be in the 55+ age group, which has distinctively lower labor force participation rates. As a greater share of the boomers reach retirement age, the labor force growth rates are expected to decline more rapidly.However, this group is expected to stay in the labor force longer than previous generations.Population Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
7 Labor Force Participation Rates PercentMenTotalThis chart shows the convergence of men’s and women’s labor force participation rates throughout the decades. The rise of women’s participation rates seems to have leveled.From the 1950s until 2000, men and women’s labor force participation rates were converging with declines in men’s participation rate and increases in women’s. Since 2000, men’s labor force participation rate has continued to decline. Women’s labor force participation rate has also declined, but more slowly.Men’s participation rates have declined since the late 1940’s. The decline is due in part to the increased availability of disability and Social Security benefits.Women’s participation rate peaked in 1999 at 60 percent and has been declining since then. The BLS is projecting a slight decline in women’s participation rates.BLS is projecting a decline in overall participation rates for The decline is due in large part to baby boomers leaving the labor force.Women
8 Labor Force Change by Age Group: Projected 2010-20 In thousands of peopleAs baby boomers age, the labor force will also get older.The 55 to 64 age group in the labor force will grow significantly.The labor force of the 65 and older age group will also grow as more baby boomers enter this age group.The large increase of year olds is the result of more workers from the baby boom echo generation reaching this age group.The decline in the 16 to 24 age group of the labor force is the result of the significant decreases in the labor force participation rate of the younger workforce, which is a result of increased school attendance.The largest drop is in the year old group, as baby boomers age out of this group.
9 Labor Force Growth by Race and Ethnicity Change in millions, projectedThe four yellow bars to the left of the vertical line represent all race groups and the two blue bars to the right of the vertical line represent all ethnicity groups. When you add the bars shown in yellow or the bars shown in blue, they equal total growth in population.The “Other” category includes 1) those of multiple racial origin 2) American Indians and Alaskan Natives 3) Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islanders.Although white people are projected to have the slowest rate of growth, they are still adding more workers to the labor force than any other group.Unlike the changes in race where the white population is projected to add more workers to the labor force than other races despite slow growth, the increase in the number of Hispanic workers is expected to exceed that of Non-Hispanic workers.The classification of Hispanic ethnicity applies to people of every race.
10 Unemployment RateBased on literature reviews and forecasts by other agencies and firms, BLS set the unemployment rate in 2020 associated with a full-employment economy at 5.2 percent.Due to the unpredictability of the business cycle over a ten-year period, BLS assumes the economy will be at full employment in the projection year (2020).(For clarification if questions are asked.) Labor supply in the projection year is assumed to be equivalent to labor demand except for a small amount of assumed frictional unemployment, generally estimated by the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Given the severity of labor market impacts related to the recent recession, there has been much discussion regarding impacts on NAIRU. Based on literature reviews and forecasts by other agencies and firms, BLS set the unemployment rate in 2020 associated with a full-employment economy at 5.2 percent.
11 Historic Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Inflation RateAnnual rate of changeThe inflation rate represented here is measured by GDP price.Inflation is a monetary phenomenon that is influenced mostly by monetary policy, and to a lesser degree by exchange rates and global monetary flows.The BLS projections assume the Federal Funds rate will average 4.5% and the 10-year Treasury is projected to reach 5.5% in 2020.Historic Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
12 Housing Starts: 1960 to 2010 and Projected 2020 (Thousands of units)Recession yearHousing starts had not fallen below 1 million units before 2008, but were below 600,000 in both 2009 and 2010.The timing and magnitude of the housing recovery at this time is highly uncertain.Housing starts are a target variable in the 2020 projections. The result was carefully analyzed and a target range was set through research including external model analysis, extensive literature review, and discussion with industry experts. BLS expects that by 2020, the excess supply of housing will clear, including the overhang of shadow inventory. The market will be based largely on demographic and economic trends.Housing starts are projected to reach 1.5 million units in 2020, much improved from just under 600,000 in 2009 and 2010, but considerably lower than the 2.1 million units started in 2005.Historic Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
13 Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment Millions of jobsEmployment on this graph includes non-farm payroll employment, which excludes agricultural, self employed and unpaid family workers.Employment is expected to grow by 1.4% a year, reversing the 0.2% annual rate decline experienced during the previous decade. The decline from reflects the December 2007-June 2009 recession, and the fact that employment had not fully recovered by 2010.Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment
14 The “Lost” Decade In 2000, total of 132.4 million jobs Projection: 152 million total jobs in 2010Actual: million jobs in 20102020 Projected Employment: million
15 Employment by Industry Sector: 2010 Thousands of wage and salary jobsState and local government, which includes public education and public hospitals, is the largest in terms of jobs by industry sector.Manufacturing is sixth in terms of jobs, despite being first by a large margin in terms of nominal output, because the sector has very high productivity.Educational services and health care and social assistance include only private organizations.Service providingGoods producing
16 Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20 Thousands of wage and salary jobsService providingGoods producingHealth care and social assistance is expected to add the most jobs, despite being the third largest sector by jobs in The projected change in demographics is largely driving the growth in the number of jobs being added in this sector. The increasing number of people 65 years and older will require more health care.Of the goods-producing sectors, only construction is projected to have a significant gain in employment. Despite this projected growth, the construction industry is still projected to be below the number of jobs the industry had in 2006.Federal government is the sector projected to see the largest declines. The increased pressure to reduce the government budget deficit will be one of the major contributors to the loss of employment. The Postal Service is expected to be responsible for almost half of the decrease in employment in the federal government sector. With wider spread use of , online bill pay, and the decrease circulation of magazines, consumers are moving away from services provided by the Postal Service industry.State and local government includes public education and hospitals.
17 Percent Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20 Annual rate of change for wage and salary employmentTotal nonagricultural wage and salary growth= 1.4%Health care and social assistance, which is made of private institutions, is the fastest growing industry in addition to being the largest in terms of projected employment gains.Construction employment is projected to grow fast, but the construction industry in 2020 is still projected to be below the number of jobs the industry had in 2006.Educational services, which is made of private educational institutions, is the third fastest growing sector in terms of employment. However, it is ranked ninth in terms of the number of jobs added.Federal government is the sector projected to see the largest declines. The increased pressure to reduce the government budget deficit will be one of the major contributors to the loss of employment. The Postal Service is expected to be responsible for almost half of the decrease in employment in the federal government sector. With wider spread use of , online bill pay, and the decrease circulation of magazines, consumers are moving away from services provided by the Postal Service industry.State and local government includes public education and hospitals.Service providingGoods producing
18 Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projectedThe largest occupational group with over 22.6 million jobs in 2010, office and administrative support occupations are also projected to add the most new jobs: 2.3 million through 2020, despite the group growing slower than average at 10.3 percent. The majority of projected job growth will be recovery from the recession, which caused the loss of 1.7 million jobs for this group from 2006 to 2010.Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are projected to add 2.0 million new jobs from 2010 to 2020, the second most of any group. The fast growth for this occupational group is driven by increased spending on healthcare services, particularly from an aging population. Older individuals spend more on healthcare than those who are younger, so as the share of the population aged 65 and older grows, healthcare spending is expected to increase.Sales and related occupations are projected to add 1.9 million new jobs from 2010 to 2020 as this large occupational group grows at a slightly below average 12.5 percent rate. This follows the loss of 1.1 million jobs from 2006 to 2010.(Continued on next slide.)(Continued on next slide)
19 Employment Trends for Occupational Groups whose Employment Increased 2006-10 Percent of 2006 employmentThis graph shows occupational groups which grew by at least 2 percent from 2006 to 2010; all of these groups are projected to see continued growth through 2020.The two groups with the fastest growth from 2006 to 2010 were healthcare practitioners and technical occupations, and healthcare support occupations. These two groups are projected to continue to see strong growth, adding a combined 3.5 million jobs from after gaining 1.1 million fromNOTE: BLS does not project specific data for years to The interim years between 2010 and the 2020 projection point are expressed by a straight dashed line only.
20 Employment Growth vs. Replacement Needs The new few slides look at job openings for occupations. This combines openings due to growth and openings from the need to replace workers who leave the occupation.Many replacement openings will be due to retirements. However, many replacement openings occur in occupations, such as cashiers, that have large numbers of young workers, such as high school or college students, who need to be replaced when they leave to find permanent employment.Compare:Numeric employment change- the number of jobs an occupation is projected to addRegistered nurses are the occupation projected to add the most new jobs—711.9 thousand fromJob openings- job openings result both from growth and from the need to replace workers who leave the occupationReplacement needs often create more job openings than employment growth.The vast majority of the 1.8 million projected job openings for cashiers are from replacement needs, not employment growth.Job openings can give a different picture than just looking at projected growth. Despite registered nurses being projected to add the most new jobs, cashiers are projected to have over 500,000 more projected job openings due to the large number of replacement needs.1.8 M
21 Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Thousands of job openings, projectedThis slide couples job openings due to growth and job openings from the need to replace workers who leave the occupation.Many of these replacement openings will be due to retirements. However, many replacement openings occur in occupations, such as waiters and waitresses, that have large numbers of young workers, such as high school or college students, who need to be replaced when they leave to find permanent employment.For most occupational groups, job openings from replacement needs outnumber job openings due to growth.(Continued on next slide.)(Continued on next slide)
22 Job Openings by Major Occupational Group (Continued)Thousands of job openings, projected(Continued from previous slide.)This slide couples job openings due to growth and job openings from the need to replace workers who leave the occupation.Many of these replacement openings will be due to retirements. However, many replacement openings occur in occupations, such as waiters and waitresses, that have large numbers of young workers, such as high school or college students, who need to be replaced when they leave to find permanent employment.For most occupational groups, job openings from replacement needs outnumber job openings due to growth.As seen with the farming, fishing, and forestry occupations, job openings will be created through replacement needs even for occupations (or occupational groups) which are projected to decline in employment.
23 Fastest Growing Occupations Median annualwages, May 2010$19,640$20,560$81,540$27,780$25,760$29,710$38,430$49,690$26,740$45,260Percent change, projectedThis slide shows the top ten fastest growing detailed occupations (the largest projected percentage increase from 2010 to 2020).The increase in health care employment is reflected here with three of the ten in either the healthcare practitioner and technical occupations group or the healthcare support occupations group. (Note, in case of question: following the SOC structure, this includes veterinary technologists and technicians, in addition to home health aides and physical therapist assistants.)Four of the ten are construction and extraction occupations, which are projected to grow as the construction industry begins to recover from the recent recession.The two fastest growing occupations, personal care aides and home health aides, will be affected by demographic changes. Both assist the elderly, convalescents, and persons with disabilities in the person’s home or in a care facility. Home health aides provide health services such as administering medications, while personal care aides provide general services, such as cooking meals. The growing elderly population will require some care and assistance in their own homes or health care facilities, which should lead to increased demand for these occupations.Although biomedical engineers and reinforcing iron and rebar workers are on this list, they are expected to add relatively few jobs, adding 9,700 and 9,300 respectively.Six of these occupations make less than median annual wage for May 2010 of $33,840.
24 Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Median annualwages, May 2010$64,690$20,670$20,560$19,640$26,610$17,950$30,460$37,770$23,460$45,690Thousands of jobs, projectedThis slide show the ten occupations expected to add the most jobs fromMany of the occupations listed in the table are very large and will create many new jobs despite lower growth rates.The expected growth in health care will drive the demand for registered nurses, which are projected to add the most new jobs, and home health aides.Two office and administrative support occupations appear on this list as well (office clerks, general; and customer service representatives), primarily because they are large occupations that are employed across many industries. Both had more than two million jobs in 2010.Only two of these occupations, home health aides and personal care aides, are also amongst the fastest growing occupations.Seven of these occupations make less than median annual wage for May 2010 of $33,840.
25 Occupations with the Most Job Openings Median annualWages, May 2010$20,670$18,500$18,330$64,690$17,950$26,610$23,460$30,460$20,560$22,210Thousands of job openings, projectedThis slide shows the ten occupations expected to have the most total job openings due to both employment growth and replacement needs.Registered nurses and home health aides are the only occupations on the chart expected to add more jobs due to employment growth than replacement needs.Of these occupations, only registered nurses make more than the median annual wage for May 2010 of $33,840.For some of the occupations, such as retail salespersons and cashiers, the replacement needs will be the result of the large number of young workers that leave this occupation permanently. For other occupations, such as registered nurses, the replacement needs will be due to a number of older workers’ retirement.
26 Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category Average, all occupations = 14.3%Percent change, projectedWhen grouped by typical entry-level education, all education categories that typically need some postsecondary education are projected to have faster-than-average employment growth. Those occupations assigned to the high school or less than high school categories will grow slower than the average.(Note: These data reflect the sum of base-year and projected year employment for occupations assigned to each category. Some detailed occupations which typically require postsecondary education are projected to grow slower than average, and some detailed occupations which typically require a high school diploma or less are projected to grow faster than average.)
27 Employment Change by Typical Entry-level Education Category Thousands of jobs, projectedDespite being the only two education categories projected to grow slower than average, occupations that typically need a high school diploma or equivalent or less than high school are projected to add the most and second most new jobs, respectively, due to their large size.(Note: These data reflect the sum of projected employment change from for occupations assigned to each category. This is not the same as a projection of the number of workers with each of these education levels. Workers may have educational attainment that is either higher or lower than that typically needed for entry into the occupation in which they are employed.)
28 Graduate Degree Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Median annualwages, May 2010N$62,050I/R≥$166,400$76,310$112,760$111,570$53,380$47,230$38,150$32,350$72,320Thousands of jobs, projectedThese are the ten occupations that have the largest projected job growth and typically need a graduate degree (Master’s, Doctoral, or Professional degree) to enter the occupation.Most high-growth occupations in these educational categories are related to healthcare, education, and social services.The projected increase in the number of postsecondary teachers reflects expanding college enrollments.‘W’ indicates whether WORK EXPERIENCE IN A RELATED OCCUPATION is also typically needed for entry into the occupation. Assignments are more than 5 years (5+), 1-5 years (1-5), less than 1 year (<1), or none (N).‘T’ indicates whether ON-THE-JOB TRAINING is typically needed to attain competency in the occupation. Assignments are internship/residency (I/R), apprenticeship (A), long-term (L), moderate-term (M), short-term (S), or none (N).
29 Associate’s Degree or Postsecondary Non-degree Award Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Median annualwages, May 2010N$64,690$24,010$40,380$25,700$22,760$33,470L$42,5305+$83,8601-5$94,400$30,360Thousands of jobs, projectedThese are the ten occupations that have the largest projected job growth and typically need an Associate’s degree or postsecondary non-degree award to enter the occupation.At these levels of education, occupations that are projected to gain the most jobs are largely related to healthcare, reflecting the growing medical needs of an aging population.‘W’ indicates whether WORK EXPERIENCE IN A RELATED OCCUPATION is also typically needed for entry into the occupation. Assignments are more than 5 years (5+), 1-5 years (1-5), less than 1 year (<1), or none (N).‘T’ indicates whether ON-THE-JOB TRAINING is typically needed to attain competency in the occupation. Assignments are internship/residency (I/R), apprenticeship (A), long-term (L), moderate-term (M), short-term (S), or none (N).
30 Less Than High School Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Median annualwages, May 2010NS$20,670$20,560$19,640$17,950$23,460$18,500$22,210$23,400$29,280$18,330Thousands of jobs, projectedThese are the ten occupations that have the largest projected job growth and typically do not need a high school diploma to enter the occupation.While workers might not need a high school diploma to enter these occupations, they typically need on-the-job training to attain competency.‘W’ indicates whether WORK EXPERIENCE IN A RELATED OCCUPATION is also typically needed for entry into the occupation. Assignments are more than 5 years (5+), 1-5 years (1-5), less than 1 year (<1), or none (N).‘T’ indicates whether ON-THE-JOB TRAINING is typically needed to attain competency in the occupation. Assignments are internship/residency (I/R), apprenticeship (A), long-term (L), moderate-term (M), short-term (S), or none (N).
32 Health Care Employment and Annual Rate of Change 2000-2010, 2010-2020 Employment, in thousands
33 Employment, in thousands Ambulatory Health Care Services Employment Annual Rate of Change ,Employment, in thousands
34 Healthcare Occupations with the Largest Projected Job Growth in the U Healthcare Occupations with the Largest Projected Job Growth in the U.S.,Job growth number(in thousands)Job growth percent increaseJob openings due to growth and replacements (in thousands)Registered Nurses711.926.01,207.4Home Health Aides706.369.4837.5Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants302.020.1496.1Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses168.522.4369.2Physicians and Surgeons168.324.4305.1Medical Assistants162.930.9243.8Pharmacy Technicians108.332.4166.3Dental Assistants91.630.8154.0Physical Therapists77.439.0100.6Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics75.433.3120.8
35 Healthcare Occupations with the Fastest Projected Job Growth in the U Healthcare Occupations with the Fastest Projected Job Growth in the U.S.,Job growth number(in thousands)Job growth percent increaseJob openings due to growth and replacements (in thousands)Home Health Aides706.369.4837.5Veterinary Technologists and Technicians41.752.055.7Physical Therapist Assistants30.845.741.2Diagnostic Medical Sonographers23.443.531.7Occupational Therapy Assistants12.343.316.8Physical Therapist Aides20.343.127.6Physical Therapists77.439.0100.6Dental Hygienists68.537.7104.9Audiologists4.836.85.6Veterinarians22.035.934.2
36 Healthcare Occupations with the Most Projected Job Openings in the U.S., 2010-2020 Job growth number(in thousands)Job growth percent increaseJob openings due to growth and replacements (in thousands)Registered Nurses711.926.01,207.4Home Health Aides706.369.4837.5Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants302.020.1496.1Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses168.522.4369.2Physicians and Surgeons168.324.4305.1Medical Assistants162.930.9243.8Pharmacy Technicians108.332.4166.3Dental Assistants91.630.8154.0Pharmacists69.725.4139.6Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics75.433.3120.8
37 Percent of total employment Employment in Hospitals by Detailed Occupation (includes Private, State, and Local Government Hospitals – May 2011)Detailed OccupationEmploymentPercent of total employmentAnnual mean wage (May 2011)All Occupations5,648,820100.00%$55,180Registered Nurses1,642,90029.08%$69,880Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants410,6907.27%$27,220Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses153,4502.72%$41,170Medical Secretaries137,8302.44%$32,490Radiologic Technologists and Technicians133,7502.37%$56,910Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners119,3202.11%$23,590Medical and Health Services Managers119,020$101,920Office Clerks, General100,0801.77%$30,730Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists98,7501.75%$58,650May 2011 Occupational Employment Statistics
38 Employment per thousand jobs Top Paying Metropolitan Areas for Registered Nurses, Nationwide (May Top 10 Metropolitan Areas are All Located in California)Metropolitan areaEmploymentEmployment per thousand jobsLocation quotientAnnual mean wageVallejo-Fairfield, CA3,37028.721.35$120,540San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA12,12013.820.65$117,590Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Division20,09021.100.99$106,730San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA Metropolitan Division18,40019.170.90$105,670Salinas, CA2,67017.570.83$103,310Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA14,85018.440.87$99,230Napa, CA1,37022.161.04$98,870Hanford-Corcoran, CA97026.651.25$96,950Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA1,69020.350.96$96,760Modesto, CA3,30022.04$95,530
39 Percent of Total Employed Black or African American Employed Persons by Detailed Industry, Sex, Race, and Hispanic or Latino EthnicityIndustryTotal Employed(in thousands)Percent of Total EmployedWomenBlack or African AmericanAsianHispanic or LatinoTotal, all industries, 16 years and over139,86946.910.84.914.5Health care and Social Assistance Sector18,90278.516.05.511.1Hospitals6,31575.822.214.171.124Health services, except hospitals9,367126.96.36.199.2
50 Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20, California Source: California Employment Development Department, Industry Projections
51 Percent Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20, California Source: California Employment Development Department, Industry Projections
52 Employment Change in Healthcare and Social Assistance Sector 2008 – 2018 by CountyIncludes Ambulatory Healthcare Services, Hospitals (private), Nursing and Residential Care Facilities, and Social AssistanceSource: California Employment Development Department, Industry Projections
53 Percent Change in Healthcare and Social Assistance Employment 2008 – 2018 by CountyIncludes Ambulatory Healthcare Services, Hospitals (private), Nursing and Residential Care Facilities, and Social AssistanceSource: California Employment Development Department, Industry Projections
54 Projected Employment in Ambulatory Health Care Services, 2008-2018 Percent GrowthBubble size represents 2018 projected total employmentSource: California Employment Development Department, Industry Projections
55 Projected Employment in Private Hospitals, 2008-2018 Percent GrowthBubble size represents 2018 projected total employmentSource: California Employment Development Department, Industry Projections
56 Bubble size represents 2018 projected total employment Projected Employment in Nursing and Residential Care Facilities,Percent GrowthBubble size represents 2018 projected total employmentSource: California Employment Development Department, Industry Projections
57 California health care occupational projections
58 Employment by Major Occupational Group in California Occupational TitleAnnual Average EmploymentEmployment Change2012 First Quarter Wages20102020Numerical%Median AnnualFood Preparation and Serving Related Occupations1,248,5001,572,000323,50025.9$19,451Office and Administrative Support Occupations2,487,0002,789,700302,70012.2$35,914Sales and Related Occupations1,581,4001,880,800299,40018.9$28,164Personal Care and Service Occupations730,300933,100202,80027.8$22,808Business and Financial Operations Occupations821,000983,500162,50019.8$68,837Transportation and Material Moving Occupations936,7001,096,500159,80017.1$29,524Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations735,600893,100157,50021.4$77,945Management Occupations1,099,9001,214,400114,50010.4$108,870Construction and Extraction Occupations607,900721,800113,90018.7$50,489Computer and Mathematical Occupations468,800576,600107,80023.0$88,960Education, Training, and Library Occupations983,7001,089,600105,90010.8$53,909Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections
59 Employment by Major Occupational Group in California Occupational TitleAnnual Average EmploymentEmployment Change2012 First Quarter Wages20102020Numerical%Median AnnualHealthcare Support Occupations388,200483,60095,40024.6$29,066Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations556,500647,90091,40016.4$24,350Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations498,700574,20075,50015.1$45,887Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations407,400461,80054,40013.4$55,770Community and Social Service Occupations230,300274,30044,00019.1$47,446Production Occupations815,700858,90043,2005.3$29,378Architecture and Engineering Occupations316,500358,00041,50013.1$88,008Protective Service Occupations366,100405,00038,90010.6$47,055Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations185,600224,20038,60020.8$70,470Legal Occupations137,400152,50015,10011.0$102,580Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations315,100319,8004,7001.5$18,816(cont…..)Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections
60 Healthcare Occupations with the Largest Job Growth in California Occupational TitleAnnual Average EmploymentEmployment Change20102020NumericalPercentRegistered Nurses251,800306,10054,30021.6Home Health Aides61,10093,10032,00052.4Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants109,500134,10024,60022.5Medical Assistants80,90099,00018,10022.4Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses64,50079,00014,500Pharmacy Technicians29,00038,6009,60033.1Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics15,90022,6006,70042.1Pharmacists23,60029,9006,30026.7Dental Assistants43,70049,0005,30012.1Physicians and Surgeons, All Other34,6004,70015.7Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections
61 Fastest Growing Healthcare Occupations in California Occupational TitleAnnual Average EmploymentEmployment Change20102020NumericalPercentHome Health Aides61,10093,10032,00052.4Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics15,90022,6006,70042.1Diagnostic Medical Sonographers5,3007,3002,00037.7Occupational Therapy Assistants2,70070035.0Pharmacy Technicians29,00038,6009,60033.1Pharmacy Aides8,10010,7002,60032.1Veterinary Technologists and Technicians8,40011,00031.0Physical Therapist Assistants4,6006,0001,40030.4Athletic Trainers1,0001,30030030.0Physical Therapist Aides6,4008,3001,90029.7Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections
62 Average Annual Job Openings Average Annual Job Openings (Growth + Replacement Needs) California Healthcare OccupationsOccupational TitleAverage Annual Job OpeningsNew JobsReplacement NeedsTotal JobsRegistered Nurses5,4204,5609,980Home Health Aides3,2007903,990Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants2,4701,4103,880Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses1,4501,7203,170Medical Assistants1,8101,2403,050Pharmacy Technicians9605001,460Dental Assistants530920Pharmacists6306001,230Physicians and Surgeons, All Other4705901,060Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics670320990Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections
63 Average Annual Job Openings Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service OccupationsLos Angeles CountyAverage Annual Job Openings2010-1st Quarter WagesNew JobsReplacement NeedsTotal Jobs per YearMedian AnnualRegistered Nurses1,8201,0792,899$80,890Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses5806281,208$48,007Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants8773211,198$24,275Medical Assistants634242876$28,940Home Health Aides560125685$21,130Dental Assistants263210473$29,523Pharmacy Technicians181161342$35,499Physicians and Surgeons, All Other118129247N/APharmacists103138241$120,616Healthcare Support Workers, All Other14175216$32,324Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections
64 Riverside/San Bernardino Counties Average Annual Job Openings Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service OccupationsRiverside/San Bernardino CountiesAverage Annual Job Openings2010-1st Quarter WagesNew JobsReplacement NeedsTotal Jobs per YearMedian AnnualRegistered Nurses518373891$76,486Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses122187309$43,502Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants91278$24,475Medical Assistants19276268$26,101Dental Assistants9779176$30,013Home Health Aides13337170$21,024Pharmacy Technicians77153$34,754Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics493887$32,123Pharmacists284472$121,830Physicians and Surgeons, All Other353469N/ASource: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections
65 Marin/San Francisco/San Mateo Counties Average Annual Job Openings Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service OccupationsMarin/San Francisco/San Mateo CountiesAverage Annual Job Openings2010-1st Quarter WagesNew JobsReplacement NeedsTotal Jobs per YearMedian AnnualRegistered Nurses181266447$101,345Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses18101119$58,255Home Health Aides663096$23,281Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants286391$33,368Medical Assistants523789$39,056Dental Assistants5087$40,344Pharmacy Technicians434285$41,504Massage Therapists$28,486Pharmacists173148$124,787Dental Hygienists162440$112,881Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections
66 Sacramento/Placer/Yolo/El Dorado Counties Average Annual Job Openings Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service OccupationsSacramento/Placer/Yolo/El Dorado CountiesAverage Annual Job Openings2010-1st Quarter WagesNew JobsReplacement NeedsTotal Jobs per YearMedian AnnualRegistered Nurses393261654$92,678Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants12464188$28,765Home Health Aides12532157$21,471Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses93$54,611Dental Assistants10051151$38,335Medical Assistants10131132$29,365Dental Hygienists6736103$94,088Pharmacy Technicians4682$38,867Massage Therapists1950$35,985Pharmacists2228$126,985Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections
67 Average Annual Job Openings Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service OccupationsSan Diego CountyAverage Annual Job Openings2010-1st Quarter WagesNew JobsReplacement NeedsTotal Jobs per YearMedian AnnualRegistered Nurses452374826$80,734Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses94159253$47,797Medical Assistants17075245$30,303Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants16085$24,250Home Health Aides15240192$21,607Dental Assistants9372165$36,143Pharmacy Technicians7164135$37,262Physicians and Surgeons, All Other4754101N/APharmacists334881$120,859Dental Hygienists373067$93,723Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections
68 Average Annual Job Openings Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service OccupationsOrange CountyAverage Annual Job Openings2010-1st Quarter WagesNew JobsReplacement NeedsTotal Jobs per YearMedian AnnualRegistered Nurses500365865$77,209Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants23283315$26,371Home Health Aides24652298$23,605Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses123170293$51,053Medical Assistants18484268$31,572Dental Assistants11292204$32,566Pharmacy Technicians7565140$35,432Veterinary Technologists and Technicians543791$31,102Physicians and Surgeons, All Other384179N/APharmacists334477$118,547Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections
69 Alameda/Contra Costa Counties Average Annual Job Openings Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service OccupationsAlameda/Contra Costa CountiesAverage Annual Job Openings2010-1st Quarter WagesNew JobsReplacement NeedsTotal Jobs per YearMedian AnnualRegistered Nurses453316769$99,961Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants23689325$30,466Home Health Aides22544269$20,344Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses111150261$58,735Medical Assistants14449193$34,140Dental Assistants8350133$45,088Dental Hygienists7348121$102,055Pharmacy Technicians524799$40,596Healthcare Support Workers, All Other362157$37,979Pharmacists3253$123,018Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections
70 U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Western Information Office www. bls U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Western Information Office
71 Resources for Additional Information Employment Outlook:Resources for Additional InformationThe next few slides present some resources for additional information about the BLS projections.
72 Occupational Outlook Handbook The Occupational Outlook Handbook includes job descriptions, education and training requirements, salary data and job outlook information. The edition is expected to be published online in later March 2012, and will include nearly 350 occupational profiles covering more than 500 detailed occupations. (Many profiles cover multiple similar occupations.)Information about an occupation can be found by:Using the A to Z index on the homepage (it can’t be seen on the screenshot, but it’s below the “Ways to use the OOH” boxUsing the “Search the OOH” function on the left hand sideNavigating major occupational categories on the left hand side
73 Occupational Outlook Quarterly The “Occupational Outlook Quarterly” includes articles about education, careers and BLS data. There are four editions of the OOQ each year. Every two years the OOQ puts out a “Chartbook,” that coincides with the release of the Projections. The Chartbook presents the results of the employment projections graphically.Examples of past articles:“Focused jobseeking: A measured approach to looking for work”“Mapping out a career: An analysis of geographic concentration of occupations”“Informational interviewing: Get the inside scoop on careers”Many articles profiling occupations or occupational groups, such as:“Work for play: Careers in video game development”“Helping those in need: Human service workers”“Medical physicists and health physicists: Radiation occupations”“Paid to persuade: Careers in sales”To subscribe:
74 Employment Projections Program The Employment Projections homepage provides access to the detailed projections data and information about replacement rates and education and training categories.
75 January 2012 Monthly Labor Review Overview of projections to 2020The U.S. economy to 2020: recovery in uncertain timesLabor force projections to 2020: a more slowly growing workforceIndustry employment and output projections to 2020Occupational employment projections to 2020The Monthly Labor Review (MLR) is principal journal of fact, analysis, and research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With each biennial release of new employment projections data, the MLR devotes an issue to summarizing the projections. The projections are covered in the January 2010 MLR, in a series of five articles:"Overview of projections to 2020" by Dixie Sommers and James C. Franklin"The U.S. economy to 2020: recovery in uncertain times" by Kathryn J. Byun and Christopher Frey"Labor force projections to 2020: a more slowly growing workforce" by Mitra Toossi"Industry employment and output projections to 2020" by Richard L. Henderson"Occupational employment projections to 2020" by C. Brett Lockard and Michael Wolf
76 Useful Employment Projections Sites Technical documentation of Employment Projections Program methods and dataOther Employment Projections Program publications, including five Monthly Labor Review articlesFrequently asked questionsA few pages on the Employment Projections site may be particularly useful.The technical documentation presents projections methodology, information on classification and crosswalks, and definitions and concepts used in the Employment Projections Program.The publications page lists publications (in addition to the Occupational Outlook Handbook and Occupational Outlook Quarterly), including links to the five Monthly Labor Review articles referenced on the previous slide.A Frequently Asked Questions page presents answers to some of the most common projections-related questions.
77 State and Local Area Projections BLS prepares projections only for the nation as a wholeProjections of industry and occupational employment are prepared by each state, using input from the BLS national projectionsState projections data, and links to each state’s projections site, are availableWhile the BLS projections are only for the nation as a whole, each state government makes projections for their state, and some make projections for local areas.State projections data is available atBecause the BLS national projections are an input to state projections, publication of the state projections lags behind publication of BLS’s national projections.
78 Projections Evaluation Last performed for projectionsComparisons were difficult due to classification changesBLS projections outperformed naïve modelsDirection of employment change was generally correctThe last evaluation of BLS projections was performed for the projections.Comparisons of the projections to actual results were difficult due to changes in occupational and industry classifications and other definitional changes.Comparisons were made between BLS projections and naïve models. (Naïve models—based entirely on extrapolation of historical data, with no qualitative input—were used because there are no other widely-published projections for the period to compare BLS’s accuracy against.) On the whole, BLS projections outperformed the naïve models, but not projecting the housing bubble or the rise in oil prices did cause some inaccuracies in the BLS projections.BLS correctly projected the direction of employment change (i.e. growth or decline) for 72% of industries and 66% of occupations evaluated. (Not all industries and occupations could be evaluated due to classification changes.)More information can be found in the September 2010 edition of the Monthly Labor Review.