0. Assistant Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics
Understanding Industry Staffing Patterns in U.S. Employment Projections
Dixie Sommers
Assistant Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Department of Labor
September 29, 2011

1. Employment Projections
BLS projections approach
What we project
Employment projections process overview
National Employment Matrix
Projecting staffing patterns 1

2. BLS projections approach
Projections for 10 year periods
Produced every two years
currently available
to be published in early 2012
BLS produces national projections
State workforce agencies produce projections for States and areas
Employment concept
Jobs, not persons 2

3. BLS projections approach
Assume a “full-employment economy” for the target year (2018)
Labor market in balance
No overall labor surplus or shortage
Target unemployment rate at a full employment level
Other assumptions and target variables
Energy prices, interest rates, and more
We publish the assumptions and target variables when we publish the projections, in one of the Monthly Labor Review articles. 3

4. What we project Four inter-related components
Labor force size and composition
Overall labor supply as constraint on growth
Aggregate economy
Gross domestic product and its components
Industry demand
Final demand, output, and employment
Occupational demand
Employment
Job openings from replacements
We publish projections results for each of these four components, including data as well as analysis presented in the Monthly Labor Review
The November 2009 MLR as 5 articles, one for each component and an overview article. 4

5. Employment projections process
Labor Force
Total and by age, sex, race and ethnicity
Aggregate Economy
GDP, total employment, and major demand categories
Demographics
Fiscal policy
Foreign economies
Energy prices
Monetary policy
Population
Labor force participation rate trends
Occupational Employment
Job openings due to growth & replacement needs
Industry Final Demand
Sales to consumers, businesses, government, and foreigners
Staffing patterns
Staffing pattern ratio analyses
Replacement rates
Economic censuses
Annual economic surveys
Other data sources
The BLS projections are developed in a series of six steps-
Size and demographic composition of the labor force
The labor force is the number of people available to fill job openings. The projected labor force is based on estimates from the Census Bureau of the future population by age, sex, race, and ethnicity. BLS projects the percent of the population who will participate in the labor force in the coming decade.
The growth of the aggregate economy
Gross Domestic Product, consumer spending, investment, government spending, imports and exports, and other major economic measures.
Final demand, or GDP, divided up into consuming sector
Inter-industry relationships (input-output)
Industry output and employment
Input-Output tables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis
Occupational employment
Occupational demand is projected by applying each industry’s unique staffing pattern to industry employment estimates. Staffing patterns are projected using changes in technology, business practices, and other factors to estimate how staffing requirements will evolve over the coming decade
Industry Employment
Labor productivity, average weekly hours, wage & salary employment
Industry Output
Use and Make Relationships, Total Requirements Tables
Industry output
Sector wage rates
Technological change
Input-Output Tables 5 5

6. National Employment Matrix
Matrix or set of tables
For each industry, the distribution of employment by occupation or “staffing pattern”
Inverse matrix: for each occupation, the distribution of employment by industry
293 industries by 750 occupations
Self-employed and unpaid family workers treated as industry vectors
Data shown as
Percent distributions or “ratios”
Cell employment = ratio x industry employment 6

7. National Employment Matrix
Base-year matrix (2008) data sources
Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
Employer survey
Wage and salary workers
All industries except private households and most of agriculture
Current Population Survey
Household survey
Self-employed and unpaid family workers
Private household workers and most agriculture workers 7

8. Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey
BLS establishment survey
Sample of 1.2 million establishments
Collected over 3-year period
Wage and salary employment
Total employment by occupation
Percent distribution of employment in each industry by occupation (staffing pattern)
About 800 detailed occupations
Hourly or annual wages 8

9. OES data for Residential building construction
SOC code
Major Occupation Group
Employment, May 2008
Percent of industry total
Annual mean wage,
May 2008
All Occupations
872,480
100.00
$45,110
Management occupations
70,330
8.06
$95,700
Business and financial operations occupations
35,720
4.09
$60,500
Architecture and engineering occupations
9,300
1.07
$60,790
Life, physical, and social science occupations
840
0.1
$62,700
Community and social services occupations *
$41,850
Legal occupations
650
0.07
$92,010
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations
3,810
0.44
Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations
100
0.01
Protective service occupations
690
0.08
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations
9,210
1.06
$25,880
Personal care and service occupations
480
0.06
Sales and related occupations
34,890 4
$59,470
Office and administrative support occupations
125,350
14.37
$32,870
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 70
$23,360
Construction and extraction occupations
556,560
63.79
$40,270
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations
11,150
1.28
Production occupations
2,390
0.27
$37,300
*Not available
Here is an example of the kind of data OES provides.
The table shows OES results for Residential building construction, NAICS , for May 2010.
The data shown here are for all the SOC Major Occupation groups – the most aggregated level – including employment, the percent distribution of employment, and the annual mean wage.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics

10. OES data for Residential building construction
Detailed construction occupations with 2,500 or more workers
SOC code
Occupation title
Employment,
May 2008
Percent of industry total
Annual mean wage,
Carpenters
265,840
30.47
$41,010
Construction laborers
116,070
13.3
$31,150
First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers
76,410
8.76
$58,810
Helpers--carpenters
32,400
3.71
$25,940
Painters, construction and maintenance
12,260
1.41
$33,710
Cement masons and concrete finishers
10,790
1.24
$38,510
Operating engineers and other construction equipment operators
6,260
0.72
$43,720
Electricians
6,030
0.69
$46,210
Drywall and ceiling tile installers
4,840
0.55
$39,560
Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters
3,880
0.44
$47,290
Brickmasons and blockmasons
2,960
0.34
$45,890
Roofers
2,850
0.33
$33,100
Here’s a drill down into OES data for the Residential building construction industry, showing an example of OES data for some detailed occupations.
These are the detailed occupations in the Construction and Extraction occupations major SOC group where this industry has 2,500 or more workers.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics

11. National Employment Matrix
Projected-year matrix (2018)
Ratios projected to capture expected change from factors affecting utilization of occupations within industries
Changes in technology
Changes in product mix
Changes in business practices
Developed using “ratio analysis”
Results in “change factor matrix”
Rational for change recorded 11

12. National Employment Matrix
Multiply projected industry employment by the projected staffing pattern
Results in projected employment by occupation for each industry
Sum the results for each occupation across all industries
Results in total projected employment by occupation 12

13. National Employment Matrix
Answers questions such as:
In 2008, what percent of all workers in the Residential building construction industry work in the occupation Construction Managers?
In 2018, what percent of all workers in the Residential building construction industry do we expect to work in the occupation Construction Managers? 13

14. National Employment Matrix, Residential building construction
Employment by industry, occupation, and percent distribution, 2008 and projected 2018.
236100
Residential building construction (employment in thousands)
Occupation
2008
2018
Percent change
Employ-ment change
Employ-ment
Percent of industry
Percent of occupa-tion
Total, all occupations
832.1
100.00
0.55
996.9
0.60
19.81
164.8
Management, business, and financial occupations
101.1
12.15
0.64
123.2
12.36
0.71
21.78
22.0
Management occupations
67.1
8.06
0.75
80.4
8.07
0.86
19.93
13.4
Top executives
17.3
2.08
0.79
18.4
1.85
0.84
6.33
1.1
Chief executives
2.3
0.27
0.57
2.4
0.24
4.35
0.1
General and operations managers
15.0
1.81
0.87
16.0
1.61
0.93
6.63
1.0
Advertising, marketing, promotions, public relations, and sales managers
0.29
0.38
2.9
0.41
22.07
0.5
Marketing and sales managers
0.43
2.8
0.28
0.46
22.59
Marketing managers
0.9
0.11
0.52
0.10
0.53
15.21
Sales managers
1.4
0.16
0.39
1.7
0.17
27.53
0.4
Public relations managers
0.01
0.15
15.70
0.0
Operations specialties managers
4.3
5.0
0.50
0.30
15.87
0.7
Administrative services managers
0.36
16.99
0.2
Financial managers
2.2
0.26
0.40
2.5
0.25
15.75
0.3
Human resources managers
0.02
0.12
16.86
Compensation and benefits managers
17.11
All other human resources managers
16.64
Industrial production managers
0.05
0.06
12.85
Purchasing managers
0.8
0.09
1.11
1.25
14.72
Other management occupations
43.1
5.17
0.95
54.1
5.43
1.13
25.69
11.1
Construction managers
39.5
4.74
7.16
49.9
5.01
7.73
26.56
10.5
Continued….
This is the beginning of the National Matrix table for Residential building construction, NAICS
The table shows:
For 2008
Total employment in the industry
Employment in each occupation in the industry
Percent distribution of industry employment by occupation
This industry’s share of total employment in the occupation
For 2018
Projected values for the same items
Projected change in employment (numeric), total for the industry and for each occupation
Projected percent change in employment, total for the industry and for each occupation

15. Ratio Analysis
Projecting changes in staffing patterns within industries
Analysts use occupational expertise and empirical evidence to make decisions about how occupational utilization may change over the projections period
Provide rationale describing forces underlying the recommendation
Iterative process

16. Change Factors
Show proportional change in an occupation’s projected share of industry employment
Projected-year ratio = change factor x base-year ratio
For Carpenter’s helpers in Residential building construction:
4.04 = 1.09 x 3.71
Developed through the Ratio Analysis process
Change factors are developed which give the proportional change in an occupation’s share of industry employment over the 10-year projection period. These change factors are applied to the 2008 occupational staffing patterns to derive projected staffing patterns. An occupation’s projected share of an industry may increase, decrease, or remain the same, depending on the change factors and underlying rationales.
Reflects how each occupation’s share of industry employment is projected to change over time

17. Rationales for Ratio Changes
Rationales should present a reason why employment of an occupation should change as a share of industry employment
“A small increase is expected in utilization of Carpenters helpers because prefabricated carpentry work is shipped to construction sites more frequently, these workers will be used as a low-cost alternative to carpenters.”
Occupation (Industry)
Percent of Industry
Projected Industry Growth Rate
Change Factor
Projected Percent of Industry
Occupational Growth Rate in this Industry
Carpenters helpers
(Residential building construction)
3.71
18.44
1.09
4.04
30.32 17

18. Change Factor magnitude
Change Factors
Change Factor magnitude
Description
0.50
Very large decrease
0.65
Large decrease
0.80
Moderate decrease
0.90
Small decrease
1.00
No change
1.10
Small increase
1.20
Moderate increase
1.35
Large increase
1.50
Very large increase 18

19. Ratio Analysis
Total shares of industry employment must equal 100 percent
Application of initial change factors does not result in correct totals
Scaling used to force additivity
Resulting projected-year ratios will not equal initial ratios
Change factor review and scaling repeated until no further analysts requests for changes are made 19

20. Ratio Analysis Example results for Residential Building Construction
(employment in thousands)
Occupation
2008
2018
Change factor
Employment change,
Employment
Percent of industry
Number
Percent
Total, all occupations
832.1
100.00
996.9
1.00
164.8
19.81
Construction managers
39.5
4.74
49.9
5.01
1.06
8.7
25.44
Carpenters
253.5
30.47
294.0
29.49
0.97
40.4
15.94
Carpenters helpers
30.9
3.71
40.3
4.04
1.09
9.4
30.32
All other helpers, construction trades
1.2
0.15
1.5
0.3
25.34 20 20

21. Ratio Analysis Impact Without ratio analysis
Assume that staffing patterns would not change over the projection period
All occupational employment change would result from industry employment change
How much difference does ratio analysis make?
Apply base-year staffing patterns to projected-year industry employment
Compare the result with actual projections made using ratio analysis

22. Ratio Analysis Impact Changes total employment by occupation
Shifts of employment into the occupation
Shifts of employment out of the occupation
Net change

23. Percent of 2018 jobs moved out Percent of 2018 jobs moved in
Ratio Analysis Impact
Shifted about 4.5 million jobs from one occupation to another
2.69 percent of total jobs projected for 2018
Employment Impact of Ratio Analysis on the Projections Cycle
All numbers in thousands.  
 Occupation
Jobs moved out
Jobs moved in
Net impact
Percent of 2018 jobs moved out
Percent of 2018 jobs moved in
Net percent impact
Total, All Occupations
-4,467.4
4,467.4
-2.69%
2.69%
0.00%

24. Ratio Analysis

25. Ratio Analysis

26. Using the matrix
Using the matrix to understand industries and occupations
Industry structure
Concentration of occupations in industries
Distribution of occupational employment across industries

27. Largest occupations in Residential building construction
2008 Employment
2018 Projected employment
Projected percent change
Projected numerical change
Carpenters
253.5
294.0
15.94
40.4
Construction laborers
110.7
144.3
30.32
33.6
First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers
72.9
95.0
22.1
Construction managers
39.5
49.9
26.56
10.5
Helpers—Carpenters
30.9
40.3
9.4
Office clerks, general
28.2
32.7
15.98
4.5
Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive
27.2
29.2
7.46
2.0
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks
23.4
3.7
Cost estimators
16.1
20.9
30.35
4.9
General and operations managers
15.0
16.0
6.63
1.0
Executive secretaries and administrative assistants
14.1
16.3
15.89
2.2
Real estate sales agents
12.1
14.0
15.97
1.9
Painters, construction and maintenance
11.7
13.9
18.46
Cement masons and concrete finishers
10.3
13.53
1.4
(Employment in thousands)
Chart is found in Sommers/_NRC Mining-Energy Presentation/Mining Energy Largest Occs.xlsx
You can also use the matrix to understand what are the largest occupations in each industry, regardless of how concentrated they are. This table shows the largest occupations for Mining and for Electric power generation, transmission and distribution.
Roustabouts is the largest occupation in Mining. From the previous table, we see that nearly all of the employment in this occupation is found in Mining.
Operating engineers, however, while among the largest occupations in Mining, isn’t on our list of occupations most concentrated in Mining.
By “turning the Matrix around” to an occupation view, we can learn where else Operating engineers are found.

28. Occupations concentrated in Residential building construction
2008
2018
Percent change
Employ-ment change
Employ- ment
Percent of industry
Percent of occupation
Helpers—Carpenters
30.9
3.71
38.71
40.3
4.04
40.90
30.32
9.4
Carpenters
253.5
30.47
19.73
294.0
29.49
20.27
15.94
40.4
First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers
72.9
8.76
10.44
95.0
9.53
11.79
22.1
Construction laborers
110.7
13.30
8.86
144.3
14.47
9.59
33.6
Cost estimators
16.1
1.93
7.37
20.9
2.10
7.67
30.35
4.9
Construction managers
39.5
4.74
7.16
49.9
5.01
7.73
26.56
10.5
Cement masons and concrete finishers
10.3
1.24
5.12
11.7
1.17
5.15
13.53
1.4
All other helpers, construction trades
1.2
0.15
4.49
1.5
25.34
0.3
Stonemasons
0.9
0.11
3.87
1.1
4.06
17.11
0.2
Interior designers
2.5
0.30
3.49
2.8
0.28
3.23
10.48
Manufactured building and mobile home installers
0.04
3.36
0.4
3.51
9.96
0.0
Insulation workers, floor, ceiling, and wall
3.35
1.0
0.10
3.19
9.40
0.1
(Employment in thousands)
Data for this table are in Sommers/_NRC Mining-Energy Presentation /Mining Energy Concentrated Occs.xlsx
Here is an illustration of another way to use the National Employment Matrix.
This table takes the Matrix for the Mining industry and sorts the detailed occupations by the percent of all employment in the occupation that is found in Mining. The table lists only the occupations with at least 50 percent of their employment found in mining.
By understanding how concentrated an occupation is in Mining, you can see to what extent your industry is competing with other sectors of the economy for these workers. You can go back to the OES data and see whether the pay is similar, and where geographically the employment is found for these occupations.

29. Industries where most Carpenters work
Industries with 2008 employment of 15,000 or more for Carpenters
Industry
2008
2018
Percent change
Employ-ment change
Employ-ment
Percent of industry
Percent of occupa-tion
000000
Total employment, all workers
1,284.9
0.9
100.0
1,450.3
12.9
165.4
SE1300
Self-employed workers, all jobs
411.2
3.5
32.0
458.0
3.7
31.6
11.4
46.8
236100
Residential building construction
253.5
30.5
19.7
294.0
29.5
20.3
15.9
40.4
236200
Nonresidential building construction
160.2
19.36
12.46
184.6
18.63
12.73
15.27
24.5
238100
Foundation, structure, and building exterior contractors
131.0
13.27
10.20
147.6
13.08
10.18
12.63
16.5
238300
Building finishing contractors
126.8
13.89
9.87
147.7
14.41
16.51
20.9
561300
Employment services
24.3
0.77
1.89
30.1
0.80
2.07
23.58
5.7
321900
Other wood product manufacturing
17.1
6.46
1.33
15.4
6.42
1.06
-10.24
-1.8
(Employment in thousands)

30. BLS projections products
Projection data for each component
Data tables
Technical outputs for researchers
News release
Analysis in the Monthly Labor Review
Technical documentation 30

31. BLS projections products
Occupational Outlook Handbook
Career Guide to Industries
Occupational Outlook Quarterly
Available on the BLS website.
Occupational Outlook Handbook and Career Guide to Industries are often used by counselors and students to make career decisions. They include not only job outlook information but also detailed job descriptions, education and training data, and earnings.
Occupational Outlook Quarterly is especially useful for non-technical users of our projections, such as the media, politicians, etc. and presents a summary of the projections as charts.

32. BLS projections products
Occupational Outlook Handbook
Nature of the work
Training, other qualifications, and advancement
Employment and job outlook
Earnings
Related occupations
Sources of additional information 32

33. References Employment Projections
Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
Occupational Outlook Handbook
Occupational Outlook Quarterly
Career Guide to Industries 33

34. Thank you! Dixie Sommers Assistant Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Department of Labor
2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE
Washington, D.C