1. Demographic challenges: some perspectives for the future Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

2. OECD/CERI Project on the Future of Higher Education Trends analysis –Demography –Technology –Globalisation –Academic research –Labour market Futures scenarios

3. Outline Why does demography matter? What can we expect in terms of quantitative changes? What are the qualitative challenges? What will it take to address them?

4. Why does demography matter?

5. Quantitative changes and tertiary enrolments

6. Evolution of the 18-24 population by 2025 (2005=100) Source: United Nations, Population division (revision 2006)

7. Scenario 1: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under current conditions (2005=100) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography

8. Scenario 2: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under recent trends (2005=100) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography

9. Total expenditures for tertiary education institutions as % of GDP in 2005, and projected difference by 2025 under scenario 2 (GDP points) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography GDP set at 2% growth and educational costs per head projected linearly according to 1995-2005 growth rate (constant prices)

10. Tertiary educational attainment (%) of 25-64 population

11. Tertiary educational attainment (%) of 25-44 population

12. Qualitative changes in tertiary enrolments

13. Population estimates for the make-up of 18-25 year olds in the United States Source: US Censur Bureau

14. Social inequity over time (father’s education) Source: Social Situation Observatory (except Japan, Korea, and Australia)

15. Growth in the number of foreign students (2000-2006, 2000=100)

16. Share of tertiary degrees awarded to women

17. Gender gap in tertiary educational attainment (F-M) by age group No gap in 2005; +18% for youngest cohort if strict projection; >10% ?

18. Addressing the quality access challenges

19. On your memory stick Higher Education 2030 –Volume 1: Demography Forthcoming: –Volume 2: Technology –Volume 3: Globalisation –Volume 4: Scenarios

20. THANK YOU Stephan.Vincent-Lancrin@oecd.org www.oecd.org/edu/universityfutures