2. Snowdon & Associates Inc. The changing landscape of higher education in Canada Canadian Association of University Business Officers Halifax, 2003 Ken Snowdon This presentation includes speaking notes that can be viewed in powerpoint.

3. Outline The Challenge - demography and participation rates Student expectations… Developments…. Looking to the future

4. The Challenge…. greatest enrolment increase since the 1960’s-70’s - “echo boom” providing opportunity for all who are qualified against a background of: –replacement and expansion of an aging professoriate –ambitious research and innovation agenda –intense competition for public resources

5. Demographics Demographics, Participation and Enrolment Revised MTCU Projection (2002) 14.8% 21.7% 26.6% 8.5% 18-24 Population Revised Projected “ Boomers” “Echo” Actual Projected

6. Youth population growth will vary widely over the next decade Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates, 2001 (AUCC Trends Fig. 1.10) Population change, 18 to 21 age cohort

7. Enrolment demand fuelled by…. ‘echo boom’ increased participation rates –more university educated parents –greater interest in economic and social benefits of a university education –labour market demand and better employment opportunities for university educated employees –federal gov’t innovation agenda and reliance on highly qualified personnel –heightened recognition of the advantages of university education AUCC, Trends in Higher Education, 2002

8. Participation Rates... Source: OECD Education Database 2002, data represents 1998-99 AUCC, Trends in Higher Education, 2002 Participation rate, 18-21 age cohort

9. The fastest growing occupations require the most education Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2001 (AUCC Trends Fig. 1.10)

10. Student Expectations Two-thirds of high school graduates want to obtain a university degree (Youth in Transition - 2002) Actual participation of 18-21 year olds is about 20-25% There is clearly room for more participation especially as graduation rates increase Increased expectations for Special Ed students –Ontario - $1.4 Billion per year in Special Ed funding –increased by a further $250 million

11. Student expectations...

13. Demand for full-time enrolment is expected to increase rapidly Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

14. Meeting the demand... Capacity constraints…government funding policy has always been a limiting factor AUCC projects a required increase of over $6 Billion (60%) in overall funding across Canada to support growth and quality improvements by 2011. To simply ‘fund’ 100,000 more students in Ontario, the operating ‘price tag’ is about $1.4 Billion - and that is without any ‘quality’ improvements. IF ‘broadening’ participation involves more public investment, that simply adds to the cost... Government(s) will look to other options….

15. Changing landscape…developments in play College / University Collaborative Degrees College / University articulation agreements Expanded distance education offerings from various jurisdictions and numerous universities Private ‘for profits’ begin to operate in Canada – University of Phoenix – Vancouver BC New College (CAAT’s) Charter (Ontario) University of Ontario Institute of Technology (UOIT) Increased recruitment among provinces applied degrees for colleges Increased emphasis on PSE ‘transfer’ protocols

16. Bill 132 – Post-Secondary Choice and Excellence Act, 2000 Ontario Allows 3 year ‘pilot’ program of applied degrees for colleges ( 8 new programs per year) Allows private universities to operate in Ontario Allows universities from other jurisdictions to locate into Ontario Establishes the Postsecondary Education Quality Assessment Board as the “quality control” agency Minister has increased degree granting authority

17. Applied Degrees and Private Institutions in Alberta 27 Applied degrees approved (2003) Private Colleges Accreditation Board (1984) Alberta –Gov’t 1998 removed condition of affiliation with existing university –2001 DeVry Calgary Institute of Technology

18. 2003/04 – 2005/06 SERVICE PLAN Ministry of Advanced Education BC “Encouraging a strong private post-secondary education sector is an integral part of government’s commitment to access and choice in education. New initiatives, such as the passage of the Degree Authorization Act, were undertaken over the past year to ensure more opportunities and choice for students, and provide a more level playing field for private institutions. two academic degree granting institutions with separate Acts, 10 private theological colleges with individual Acts, 15 out-of-country degree granting institutions private bill establishes Sea to Sky University as a private not-for-profit university

19. Realities….. Quality Assessment Board - looked to UK for “degree level standards” Notable absence of ‘quality standards’ in Canada October 2002, workshop for ‘private applicants’ to QAB - 50 organizations private universities are part of higher ed in many countries For profit higher education is growth industry in the U.S.

20. Update +9.5% in 1 st Q03

21. The future…. Increased interest in higher education ‘opening up’ the higher education sector –private non-profits –private “for profits” –‘publics’ from other jurisdictions –amalgamations / mergers –branch campuses –college role as “feeders” –‘accreditation’ issues programs for students studying in other jurisdictions greater demand for graduate and professional education

22. Summary The anticipated growth over the next decade will fuel an expansion that, in terms of size, will be similar to the increase in the 1960’s-70’s … and the ‘demand’ may be substantially higher That demand will result in an expansion of the existing university system AND an “opening up” of the system Provincial Government funding will be constrained - and aimed at access Government will look for and encourage other options

23. Conclusions The scramble for public investment will continue The federal gov’t will continue to invest in selective ways –leading to greater ‘tiering’ among the public universities Private universities will emerge to fill lucrative ‘niche’ markets University community needs to be aware of these developments and be prepared to compete and deal with new PSE ‘entities’.