1. Analytics for Homicides St. Louis City
Group D Members:
Jenny Brunnert Lamont Davis Lucas Matecki Ji Zhang
Analytics for Homicides St. Louis City
Business Intelligence Predictions

2. Objective
Our goal is to predict the homicide rate in the St. Louis City area for We intend to use data sets and statistical techniques as tools to assist in our prediction.

3. Homicide Definition “The killing of one human being by another”
Justifiable Homicide
Authorized by law and not punishable
Death sentence or soldier carrying out duties
Excusable Homicide
Killer was to at fault to some extent, though punishment reduced
Fatality due to a provoked fight
Criminal Homicide
Not justifiable or excusable
Murder or Manslaughter
Three categories of Homicide: Justifiable homicide, Excusable homicide, and Criminal homicide.

4. Top 10 Most Dangerous Cities
Rank
City
Violent Crime per 100,000 People 1
Flint, MI
2,337 2
Detroit, MI
2,137 3
St. Louis, Mo
1,857 4
Oakland, CA
1,683 5
Memphis, TN
1,584 6
Little Rock, AK
1,490 7
Birmingham, AL
1,483 8
Atlanta, GA
1,433 9
Baltimore, MD
1,417 10
Stockton, CA
1,408

5. Introduction
According to the FBI 2011 data results, St. Louis is currently ranked the 3rd dangerous city in America when referring to crime.
Though, numbers have decrease since the pass years (2010), St. Louis still remains unchanged on the list over the past year.
Violent Crimes per 1,000 people has risen from 17.5 to Including the city’s murder rate to be the 4th highest in the nation, it’s robbery rate to be the 5th highest in the nation, and its aggravated assault rate to be the 3rd highest in the nation.
58th largest city in U.S. according to The city rank by population as of July 1, 2011, as estimated by the United States Census Bureau
79 Neighborhoods
Violent crimes per 1,000: 18.6
Population: 320,454
58th largest city in U.S.
79 Neighborhoods
Murder, Robbery and Aggravated Assault ranked highest in nation

6. 2010 Compared to 2013
Total Crime Incidents: 29,947 Property Crime: 22,336
Violent Crime: 7,104
Total Crime Incidents: 34,935
Property Crime: 27, 324
Violent Crime: 6,205

7. Homicide in 2013

8. Predict the Homicide in 2013
Analysis Approach
Collecting data
Find the factors
Trend
Two Ways of Analysis
Predict the Homicide in 2013
Data Analysis

9. What factors might impact the rates?
Population
Sex
Race
Age
Unemployment
Education
Gang Activity
Gun accessibility
Drug Trade

11. Population
From 1980 to 2008…
57.7% of homicides occurred in cities with a population of 100,000 or more
In cities with 1 million or more, the homicide rate decreased from 35.5 homicides per 100,000 residents (1991) to 11.9 per 100,000 residents (2008) in the U.S.

12. Sex From 1980 to 2008… 77% of homicide victims are male
For males, the homicide rate (11.6 per 100,000) is 3 times higher than that of females (3.4 per 100,000)

13. Race
From 1980 to 2008
Data shows that African-American has seemingly higher rates
The victim rate (27.8 per 100,000)
The homicide rate (19.6 per 100,000)

14. Age
From 1980 to 2008…
53.2% of murder victims and 65.5% of offenders were between age 18-34
The homicide rate for ages 18 – 24 reaches 17.1 victims per every 100,000, while the rate per every 100,000 offenders peaks at 29.3

15. Unemployment
A study of homicide in eight major cities in the United States shows that when employment declined, homicide rates increased, and when employment increased homicide rates dropped.

16. Education Connected with murder, assault, and motor vehicle theft.
Research shows that education reduces crime. “By raising earnings, education raises the opportunity cost of crime and the cost of time spent in prison. ”

17. Unpredictable Factors
Gang Activity (from 1993 through 2003)
Gangs are often responsible for the firearms violent incidents, especially those incidents involving youths.
Gun accessibility (2009)
According to FBI report, firearms were used in 67.1% of the homicides. Research shows that firearm availability is positively associated with homicide rates.
Drug Trade
“Drug markets are often associated with violent offenses, particularly homicides. ” The competition for customers and drug markets can cause homicide.
Some of the factors are basically related to the other factors, such as sex and age. It’s hard to get the actual information about gang activity, Gun accessibility, and drug trade.
Gang Activity
From 1993 through 2003, gang members perpetrated approximately 373,000 of the 6.6 million violent victimizations that occurred each year. Gangs are often responsible for violent incidents involving the use of firearms, especially those incidents involving youths.
Gun accessibility
In 2009, firearms were used in 67.1% of the homicides analyzed by the FBI. Research findings indicate firearm availability is positively associated with homicide rates.
Drug Trade
Drug markets are often associated with violent offenses, particularly homicides. Those involved in the drug trade are more likely to resort to violence due to competition for customers and drug markets and as a way to solve disputes.

18. Prediction from data Total Murder #: 118 Rank Neighborhood Year 2013 1
Baden 9 2
JeffVanderLou 3
College Hill 5 4
Dutchtown
Gravois Park 6
Well/Goodfellow 7
Carondelet 8
Hamilton Heights
North Point 10
Penrose
Total Murder #: 118

19. Prediction from data
A combination of black people, male rate, and high school graduation rate has the smallest standard error.

20. Prediction from data Total Murder #: 82
Y= Xa Xb Xc

21. Prediction from research
Downward trend in crime from 2010
Looking at crime rate statistics, higher reports of homicides will fall in downtown cities of St. Louis
Baden
Walnut Park East
While several factors play a significant role to affect the numbers of homicides
Budget cuts create lower number of police force and security

22. Conclusion
Any Questions?

23. Sources
e_asp_files/criminalLaw/homicide/Definition.asp
cities-in-america.html?page=all
cities-in-america-2/3/
by_population
louis.html#.UT0e_n5QH60