1. St. Louis Metropolitan Police Homicide predictions A-Team Dan Burgdorf Spencer Malaney Richard Manierski Ryan Webster Daniel Anthony

2.  Definition: Homicide (Latin homicidium, homo human being + caedere to cut, kill) refers to the act of a human killing a human being.Latinhuman  Our Definition(s): The unlawful killing of one human being by the work of another individual  Any death being classified as a homicide by the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department is an official homicide in the eyes of Group A (In short, we are not questioning the fine judgment of the STLMPD)

3.  Study of the decline in homicides during the 1990’s  Factors that Don’t affect Homicide - Daniel  Factors that DID affect Homicide(s) - Ryan  “Bodies Move” - Rick  Urban Development - Spencer  Website and Predictions – Spencer  Conclusion - Dan

5. 1. Strong Economy in the 1990’s 2. Changing demographics 3. Better Policing Strategies 4. Gun Control laws 5. Concealed weapons law 6. Increase use of Capital Punishment

6.  Improvements in labor market opportunities make crime relatively less attractive  Relevant for burglary, robbery and theft, but less important for homicides, assaults and rapes  Unemployment and property crime

7.  Baby boomers  Older generations are less likely to commit crimes  Younger generations are more prone to commit violent crimes  Eventually both are going to offset each other in a large picture

8.  Community policing strategies  Media attention and use of technology in identifying crime ‘hot spots’  No known effective tool to measure strategies

9.  Little evidence  Gun buy-back programs  Typical programs like this yields very few guns  Very few guns used in crimes were licensed

10.  Luby’s massacre  Studies showing a relationship between concealed weapons and the homicide rate are based on Empirical data that was already on the decline before the enactment of the law.

11.  Even after introducing death penalties, homicide rate did not decline a lot  The decline rate was 1/25  So it was not really effective.

17.  Things we will need to look at further to provide more accurate predictions in 2010:  Change in demographics  Age of inhabitants  Race of inhabitants  Change in Police Deployment  Budget cuts or gets increased  Low recruitment or High recruitment  Change in rate of Incarceration  Prisons become full OR new prisons open up  Judges opt for probation OR opt for tougher sentencing  Change in Drug Market or drug supply  Major busts in supply chain  Afghanistan and Opium trade

18.  Foreclosures impact on violent crimes in Charlotte, NC.

19.  Wal-Mart  Violent crimes were 6 times more likely to occur in Wal-Mart parking lots than at a Target parking lots in 2004.  (sample done by WalmartCrimeReport.com)  Not enough data to make conclusions

21.  EXAMPLE:  DISTRICT X  300 HOMICIDES  52 DETERMINED  248 “BODIES FOUND”  FEW FACTORS PREDICTING HOMICIDE  DISTRICT Y  25 HOMICIDES  20 DETERMINED  5 “BODIES FOUND”  MANY FACTORS PREDICTING HOMICIDE

22.  http://www.umsl.edu/~wm5k7 http://www.umsl.edu/~wm5k7

23. Any Questions??