1. Satya Brink, Ph. D. Learning Policy Directorate, HRSD A presentation prepared for the Symposium: Trends, Shifts, Cliffs – Program Renewal in Colleges and Institutes Vancouver February 1-3, 2004 Research Evidence for Planning the Future of Community Colleges in Canada

2. Overview Brief introduction of research in learning in HRSD The relationship between learning and work The changing context for community colleges Opportunities for community colleges Research Evidence for Planning the Future of Community Colleges in Canada

3. Research Imperatives for Lifelong Learning Period of formal education Learning exclusive to young ages Learning for traditional occupations Learning and work combined Learning for knowledge economy Over life course Changes in Learning Institutions focussed Determinants/proxies Curriculum based assessments Description Learner focused Skills assessments Explanation Outcomes Changes in Research Traditional LearningLifelong Learning

4. Summary of Pathways of 18-20-Year-olds, December 1999 Post-Secondary Education % Employed Full-time % Employed Part-time Labour Market % Not Working GRADUATESLEAVERSCONTINUERS High School GRADUATES CONTINUERS DROPOUTS * Source: 2000 Youth in Transition Survey (18-20 years old cohort) 70% 75.8% 8.5% 11.4% 12.8% 18.2% * This figure presents estimates for 18- 20-year-olds, including the high school dropout rate (11.4%). This rate differs from the 20-year-old dropout rate reported in Chapter 2 (12%). The latter is preferable as it accounts for the fact that some youth complete high school at a later age. Yet, for the purpose of presenting reliable estimates of education and labour market pathways, it is necessary to present 18-20-year-old results here. % No Longer in School 10% 53.2% 36.7% 59.3% 22.5% 34.3% 51.1% 14.6% 91.5%30% N/A 63.1% 22.2% 14.6% 58.2% 22.8% 19.0% 11.4% 34.8% 100% N/A 6.9%9.2% 83.9% Research on learning in HRSD Start of the flow of research based on new data sources

5. Community colleges play a major role in post-secondary education Research on learning in HRSD Source: 2000 Youth in Transition Survey (18-20 years old cohort)

6. Changing context for community colleges Changes in labour market demands Skills Evaluated based on outcomes of learners Expansion of enrolments Diversity of learners Taking learning to the learner Use of technology – Clicks and mortar institutions

7. About 45% of new jobs created in this decade will require 16 years of education Number of Occupations: by Sector and Educational Attainment Source: Job Futures 2000, HRDC Changes in labour market demand SectorUniversity College/ Technical High school/ less than high school Environment9103 Biotechnology1361 Multimedia17132 Aerospace953

8. Starting and lifetime employment earnings by skill level Requiring less than High School diploma Requiring a College diploma Requiring a High School diploma 34,800 24,100 18,500 15,200 Requiring a University degree Lifetime earnings Starting earnings Source: Job Futures 2000, Applied Research Branch, HRDC Changes in labour market demand College education affects both average and lifetime income

9. Literacy scores appear to fall with age, and can be potentially upgraded through lifelong learning Relationship between prose literacy scores of Canadians and age, 1994-1995 Source:International Adult Literacy Survey, 1994-1995. Standardized prose scores Skills evaluated based on outcomes of learners 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.8 20305060401070 AGE

10. Generally, potential students for community colleges are well prepared by international standards Canadian students (15 years old) outranked those of most other industrialized countries in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). Of all 32 countries that participated, Canada ranked: –Second in reading; –Fifth in science; and –Six in mathematics. Source: Programme for International Student Assessment 2000. Skills evaluated based on outcomes of learners

11. College enrolments over time Source: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 81-229-XIB Expansion of enrolments *Due to high penetration of CEGEP institutions

12. Growing College Enrolments British Columbia 37,127 FT college enrollment 41% of public PS enrollments Alberta 31,999 FT college enrollment 37% of public PS enrollments Saskatchewan 2,740 FT college enrollment 10% of public PS enrollments Manitoba 4,181 FT college enrollment 17% of public PS enrollments Source: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 81-229-XIB Ontario 142,321 FT college enrollment 38% of public PS enrollment Quebec 164,469 FT college enrollment 55% of public PS enrollment New Brunswick 5,221 FT college enrollment 22% of public PS enrollments Newfoundland and Labrador 5,973 FT college enrollment 31% of public PS enrollments Nova Scotia 7,039 FT college enrollment 19% of public PS enrollments Prince Edward Island 1,899 FT college enrollment 43% of public PS enrollment Expansion of enrolments

13. Emerging trends in college student market Adults The proportion of college graduates over age 25 has been steadily increasing over time. Diversity of learners Source: National Graduate Survey – Follow up 1995

14. A substantial percentage of university graduates choose colleges as sources of further education Did pursue further education 59% Did not pursue further education 41% Master’s, Doctorate 23% College, trade/voc. 22% Bachelor’s 14% Source: Butlin (2000) based on National Graduates Survey Distribution of 1990 Bachelor’s graduates who pursued further education and training in 1995 Diversity of learners 1990 1995

15. Educational attainment expectations of immigrants and Canadian-born respondents Source: 2000 Youth in Transition Survey 18-20-year old cohort Diversity of Learners

16. Colleges are accessible to all income groups Source: Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics Diversity of learners

17. Taking learning to the learners There are twice as many Community Colleges (150) as universities (75)

18. Enrolment in community colleges varies by distance between home and the institution Source: 1995 School Leavers Follow-up Survey Taking learning to the learners

19. Percentage of students reporting having a computer at home and percentage reporting having a link to the internet at home. Percentage A vast majority of 15-year-old Canadian students in 2000 had a computer and a link to the Internet at home. In 2003, they are potential PSE students Source: Programme for International Student Assessment 2000 Use of technology – clicks and mortar institutions

20. SHIFT FROM DIPLOMA PROVISION TO LIFE LONG LEARNING… Diploma provisionLifelong learning 2-3 year diploma40 year relationship Just in case learningJust in time learning Education for first jobLearning for competitive advantage Traditional disciplinesLabour market and economy oriented Opportunities for Community Colleges

21. Lifelong learning increases the number of potential community college students Source: Cansim, Statistics Canada Opportunities for Community Colleges

22. IF A MAN EMPTIES HIS PURSE INTO HIS HEAD, NO MAN CAN TAKE IT AWAY FROM HIM. AN INVESTMENT IN KNOWLEDGE ALWAYS PAYS THE BEST INTEREST. Benjamin Franklin