1. Assessing Progress in Africa toward Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Main messages from the 2011 report United Nations Economic Commission for Africa 2011 International Conference on MDG Statistics Manila October 2011

3. Outline of the presentation Introduction Introduction Areas of progress Areas of progress Areas of concern Areas of concern Primary Education and Child Mortality Primary Education and Child Mortality Social protection as a policy option Social protection as a policy option Way forward Way forward

4. Introduction While some progress has been made, the rate of progress is insufficient for the continent to reach many targets. To accelerate progress, sustained efforts on all fronts is required. Governments must prioritize budgetary allocations. While some progress has been made, the rate of progress is insufficient for the continent to reach many targets. To accelerate progress, sustained efforts on all fronts is required. Governments must prioritize budgetary allocations. Recovery from global financial crisis provides new opportunity for African countries to harness economic growth and reduce poverty Recovery from global financial crisis provides new opportunity for African countries to harness economic growth and reduce poverty Large variances between and within countries’ progress on each goal, points to the need to address equity in the delivery of social services Large variances between and within countries’ progress on each goal, points to the need to address equity in the delivery of social services

5. Areas of progress Goal 2: African countries are likely to meet primary enrollment targets, many have already achieved this goal Goal 3, Target 3A: Several African countries have already achieved gender parity in primary schools. Improvements in the empowerment of women, as well as their political representation are to be commended but also scaled up. Goal 6, Target 6A: Significant improvements in prevention of new HIV infections through increased reported condom-use, particularly among youth, provision of Antiretroviral Treatment and continent-wide behavior change. Goal 8, Target 8D: A considerable number of African countries have reached post-HIPC completion point

6. Goal 1: Economic growth has not translated into reduction in absolute poverty; unemployment (youth, feminized), and hunger remain high Goal 2: Despite significant progress by most African countries to reach enrollment targets, this progress is yet to translate into commensurate primary completion rates. Quality of education remains a concern Goal 4: Progress to reduce child mortality has been too slow to achieve goal, this is further exacerbated by high population growth. Levels of child and infant mortality remain high in most countries Goal 5: Despite slow improvements, conditions for African mothers remain dire Areas of concern

7. Areas of Concern Goal 6, Target C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases. Malaria remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Although scaled up financing ensured that ITNs reached beneficiaries, more funds are needed to achieve this target. Goal 6, Target C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases. Malaria remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Although scaled up financing ensured that ITNs reached beneficiaries, more funds are needed to achieve this target. Goal 7, Target C: Progress to increase access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation has been slow and should be scaled-up. There is a large urban/rural divide in respect to this indicator. Goal 7, Target C: Progress to increase access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation has been slow and should be scaled-up. There is a large urban/rural divide in respect to this indicator. 7

8. Primary Education – Goal 2 Sub-Saharan Africa has the best record for improvement in primary school enrolment

9. Primary Education – Goal 2 Progress in net enrolment primary education in selected African countries, 1991 -2008/2009

10. Primary Education – Goal 2 Of the 36 African countries for which data is available for 2008/2009, 16 have achieved net enrollment ratio of more than 90 per cent Ten countries have improved their net enrolment ratios by more than 25 percentage points – Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mali, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal and Tanzania Burkina Faso 27 % to 64 %; Ethiopia 24 per cent to 87 per cent Djibouti and Eritrea lag behind registering net enrollment ratio of less 50 per cent

11. Primary Education –Goal 2 Primary education enrolment and completion rates in selected African countries, 2008

12. Primary Education – Goal 2 Despite good performance by majority of African countries toward universal primary school enrollment, this progress has yet to translate into commensurate primary completion rates Benin – 22 per cent (1991) to 65 per cent (2008) Countries that have made significant progress since 1991 are Algeria, Guinea, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco and Mozambique Countries with less than 50 per cent primary completion rate in 2008 – Burkina Faso, Burundi, CAR, Cote d Ivoire, Djibouti, Eritrea and Niger

13. Primary Education – Goal 2 Africa’s Burden of Out of School Children in the World 1999 and 2009 About half of the world’s out of school children live in Sub- Saharan Africa 32 million out of 67 million

14. Primary Education – Goal 2 UWEZO Initiative (in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania) Annual Learning Assessment Report Tanzania 2010 One in five primary school leavers cannot read Standard 2 level Kiswahili Only 7 in 10 primary school leavers can do Standard 2 level Mathematics

15. Child Mortality – Goal 4 Under-five Mortality Rate in Africa, 1990, 2009 and MDG target

16. Child Mortality – Goal 4 Average annual reduction of 1.8 per cent in U5MR between 1990 and 2009 – at this rate Africa is not likely to reach the MDG Goal Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest under-five mortality with one in eight children die before reaching their fifth birthday Out of the 31 countries recording under-five mortality rate of 100 or more, 30 are in Sub-Saharan Africa The slow progress toward reduction in child mortality is exacerbated by the high levels of population growth (2.6 per cent annual average between 2000-2009)

17. Child Mortality – Goal 4 Africa’s burden of under-five deaths in the world 2009 While Africa accounts for about a quarter of world’s live birth, it accounts for half of the all under-five deaths

18. Child Mortality – Goal 4 Chad209 DRC199 Guinea Bissau193 Sierra Leone192 Mali191 Seychelles12 Mauritius17 Libya19 Egypt21 Tunisia21 Worst five and best five countries in terms of under-five mortality rate

19. Child Mortality – Goal 4 Egypt has already achieved the MDG target Six countries are on course to achieve the target – Algeria, Cape Verde, Eritrea, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia Ghana, Namibia, Madagascar, Senegal and Togo have reduced U5MR by at least 33 per cent and likely to achieve the MDG target Chad: 1990 - 201; 2009 - 209 DRC: 1990 -199; 2009 - 199

20. Child Mortality – Goal 4 Percentage of Infant and neonatal deaths to total under five deaths

21. Child Mortality – Goal 4 Cause of death of children under age 5 Africa and South East Asia 2005 WHO estimates of the causes of death in children: Lancet

22. Social Protection as an instrument to accelerate progress toward the MDGs in Africa Economic growth has not contributed sufficiently to the MDGs Economic growth has not contributed sufficiently to the MDGs Despite positive growth, African economies are still prone to potential recurring shocks (macro-economic vulnerability, civil conflicts, HIV) and therefore need institutionalized social protection to minimize negative impact and handle fallouts Despite positive growth, African economies are still prone to potential recurring shocks (macro-economic vulnerability, civil conflicts, HIV) and therefore need institutionalized social protection to minimize negative impact and handle fallouts Social protection can contribute significantly to most MDGs: findings from case studies commissioned by ECA on Algeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia illustrate this. Social protection can contribute significantly to most MDGs: findings from case studies commissioned by ECA on Algeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia illustrate this.

23. Aggregated impact of social protection interventions on MDGs 1-6 INTERVENTIONMDG 1MDG 2MDG 3MDG 4MDG 5MDG 6 Cash transfersHigh Medium LowMedium School feedingHigh LowHigh Public worksHighLow MediumLow Farm subsidyHighLow HighLowMedium Productive Safety NetHigh Medium Non-Contributory PensionHighMedium High

24. Way Forward Focus public interventions on lagging MDGs while consolidating gains in areas of good performance Focus public interventions on lagging MDGs while consolidating gains in areas of good performance Design policies to create employment and significantly reduce poverty Design policies to create employment and significantly reduce poverty Prioritize social protection programmes to: offset the adverse effects of the global economic crisis on MDGs; protect the most vulnerable segments of Africa’s population; and support progress on the MDGs. Prioritize social protection programmes to: offset the adverse effects of the global economic crisis on MDGs; protect the most vulnerable segments of Africa’s population; and support progress on the MDGs.

25. Way Forward Address data gaps that remain a challenge in accurately monitoring progress and ensuring evidence-based decision making on the continent Address data gaps that remain a challenge in accurately monitoring progress and ensuring evidence-based decision making on the continent ODA and budgetary allocations should be scaled up, and channeled to country-specific MDG priorities ODA and budgetary allocations should be scaled up, and channeled to country-specific MDG priorities The deadline for the MDGs is fast approaching; it is time to reflect on the post 2015 development agenda The deadline for the MDGs is fast approaching; it is time to reflect on the post 2015 development agenda 25

26. Thanks