1. Chapter 8: Paleoclimate This chapter discusses: 1.Proxy data 2.Climate change at different time scales

2. Time Scales of Climate Change Earth’s climate changes all the time, e.g., last 300 Myr, last 3 Myr, last 50,000 yr, and last 1000 yr.

3. Climate variability Diurnal cycle Seasonal cycle Interannual variability Climate Variability and Climate Change

5. Climate Through Time Quelcaya Ice Cap, Andes Mountains, Peru 1976 Late 1990’s Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 140 years Temperatures over last 400,000 years Temperatures over last 570 million years Climate is not constant Change occurs over a variety of time scales Most Earth history is warmer and wetter than at present

6. 100,000 years 18,000 years 230,000 years 1 Million years 3.5 Million years 10 million years 6 5 million years 10,000 years 1,000 years 55 million yearsPRESENT 1. The last time atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and temperatures were much higher than today was in the age of dinosaurs. 2. Agriculture revolution began 10,000 years ago. 3. Human population explosion in the past 100 years. Today: 6 billion

7. The only mammals living at this time were small rodents.

8. Sea levels were much higher than today, and Texas was mostly under water

9. Climate Data Tools for studying climate and climate change Data Climate models Natural recorders of climate or proxy data Instrumental measurements (direct) Historical documents Understand climatic cause and effect Test hypothesis Quantitative (put numbers on ideas) and Predict the future External factors  climate system Feedbacks

10. Instrumental Measurements (Direct) Weather Stations Stevenson Screen Temperature Automatic Weather Station Satellite ~140 years old ~40 years old

11. The Hunters in the Snow by Pieter Brueghel the Elder (Kunshistorisches Museum, Vienna) Historical documents

12. Proxy Records of Climate Uses of proxy records of climate depend on both - time span of record - resolution of record

13. Proxies that record annual growth patterns can indicate year to year variations in climate -tree rings -ice cores -deep lake sediments -coral reefs Limited to last 500-1000 years except ice cores Proxy Records of Climate

14. Variations of tree ring width and density act as recorders of year to year changes in temperature and rainfall Lighter, thicker wood tissue formed by rapid growth in spring and much thinner, darker layers marking cessation of growth in autumn and winter Tree Rings Limited to land areas outside of tropics

15. Varved Lake Sediments Complement tree ring records; most common in cold-temperature environments Occur in deeper parts of lakes that do not support bottom-dwelling organisms that would obliterate annual layers with their activity Layers usually result from seasonal alternation between light, mineral-rich debris and dark, organic rich material brought in by runoff – act as proxy of precipitation amount Varves: sediments deposited annually on the bottoms of lakes that freeze in winter and thaw in summer. Winter varve: fine sediments; summer varve: coarse sediments. Varve thickness – length of freeze-free period – summer temperature.

16. Measurements of oxygen-18 isotope concentration records sea surface temperature and salinity (precipitation and runoff) variations Texture of calcite (CaCO 3 ) incorporated in skeletons varies; lighter parts during periods of rapid growth in summer and darker layers during winter Corals Limited to tropical oceans multi-celled organisms that build reefs in tropical oceans

17. Measurements provide information on temperature, snowfall, atmospheric composition (gases, dust, volcanic aerosols), sunspots, … Darker and lighter layers are more or less dust blown in seasonally Ice Cores Limited to polar latitudes and mountain glaciers

18. Speleothems (cave deposits) Mineral formations occurring in limestone caves (most commonly stalagmites & stalactites, or slab-like deposits known as flowstones) Primarily calcium carbonate, precipitated from groundwater Uranium can be used to determine the age

19. Fossils of Past Vegetation Climate can be inferred from distinctive vegetation types Palm-tree like fossil in Wyoming 45 Myrs ago indicating the Cretaceous warm climate Climate can be inferred from leaf size and shape. Climate can be inferred from pollen in sediments: All flowering plants produce pollen grains with distinctive shapes.

20. Marine Sediments Long cores drilled by specially equipped ships Dating only accurate to about 40,000 years ago and can resolve climate changes that occur on century scale or longer

21. Granular debris from land can indicate icebergs breaking off of continental ice sheets, suggesting cold climates Isotopes in shells of foraminifera can reveal temperature, salinity, and ice volume Marine Sediments

22. Proxy Records of Climate Proxies for more ancient climates are found in sediments or inferred from fossils and land forms Can generally only resolve changes that occur over 100 years or greater Recent times: instrumental More recent times: historical, tree rings, ice cores

23. Why bother studying ancient climate? Who cares what happened a long time ago? 1. Past variability can show climatic extremes that have not been experienced during recorded history 2. In order to understand the effects of human activity on climate, we must establish what the planet, the atmosphere, and climate change was like before human perturbations 3. Constructing and interpreting long-term records of climate are the only means to determine how periodic climate change is (All in all, we are just a blip) 4. Past is prologue “The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.” - Winston Churchill

24. Proxies that record annual growth patterns can indicate year to year variations in climate -tree rings -ice cores -deep lake sediments -coral reefs Limited to last 500-1000 years except ice cores Proxy Records of Climate

25. (21 k yrs ago) How cold were the glacial tropics? Evidence for a small tropical cooling The Tropical Cooling Debate Evidence for a large tropical cooling Was the actual tropical cooling medium-small? Relevance of global tropical temperatures to future climate

26. Reconstructing the Last Glacial Maximum CLIMAP (Climate Mapping and Prediction) Project Mainly based on ocean sediments Began in 1970s, published its first map in 1976 and then 1981 LGM August SST Difference between LGM and Today Overall: 4°C cooler than today N Atlantic: 8°C cooler N Pacific: 2-4°C cooler Tropical oceans: 1-2°C cooler

27. What Caused The Tropical Cooling? Insolation was close to today Greenhouse gases must have been a major factor. Ice sheets were too distant.

28. Ocean-Based Evidence for a Small Tropical Cooling CLIMAP Distribution of plankton species depends on ocean water temperature. During LGM, high-latitude cold- adapted species moved to the tropics  a large cooling in the tropics. But … Biochemical Composition Relative abundance of alkenone molecules is sensitive to ocean water temperature. Oxygen isotope measurements Difference in δ 18 O values (LGM and today) = difference by ice sheets + difference by ocean temperatures Tropical cooling: 1.5°C Tropical cooling: less than 2°C Tropical cooling: 2-3°C

29. Land-Based Evidence for a Large Tropical Cooling Drop of the ice line Descent of the lower limit of mountain glaciers by 600-1000 meters in the tropics. Tropical cooling: 4-6°C Lapse-rate cooling: 6.5°C/1000 meters Descent of the upper limit of forests Tropical cooling: 5°C Temperature-sensitive noble gases (xenon, krypton, argon, neon) in groundwater SW USA and SE Brazil cooling: 5°C

30. Ocean-based evidence: small cooling; Land-based evidence: large cooling Was the Actual Tropical Cooling Medium-Small? Plankton relatively insensitive to temperatures at low latitudes Critics of small cooling Food more important than temperature for survival The Pacific is a difficult region to apply CLIMAP Seafloor sediments poorly preserved (altered by dissolving) Drier glacial tropical climate increases lapse cooling rate Critics of large cooling from present-day 6.5°C/km toward 9.8°C/km of dry air Mountain glaciers poorly dated Descent of vegetation due to lower CO 2 Where is the truth? Somewhere between 1.5°C (CLIMAP) and 5°C (land evidence)

31. Relevance of Glacial Tropical Temperatures to Future Climate Lower values of greenhouse gases caused glacial tropical cooling (1.5 to 5ºC); how large the future warming will be in response to large increases in greenhouse gases? This range matches the range of uncertainty about Earth’s CO 2 sensitivity simulated by GCMs Tropical cooling between 1.5°C (CLIMAP) and 5°C (land evidence) CO 2 = 190 ppmv (LGM)  280 ppmv (preindustrial, 47% higher)  381 ppmv (in 2006)  ? (by 2100) CH 4 = 350 ppbv (LGM)  700 ppbv (preindustrial 100% higher)  1751 ppbv (in 2006)  ? (by 2100) Greenhouse gases by 2100: doubling of the preindustrial values?

32. Orbital-Scale Changes in CO 2 Maxima: 280-300 ppm Minima: 180-190 ppm Vostok Ice in Antarctica Four 100,000-year cycles 23,000-year cycle not prominent Major CO 2 cycles match marine δ 18 O (ice volume) cycles in an overall sense Which is driving which? Low accuracy in dating in Antarctica Difficulties: Dust reacts with CO 2 bubbles in Greenland

33. The strength of tropical monsoons The warmth of northern high-latitude summers Climate Change in the Last 7,000 Years Vegetation responses Bedrock rebounding and sea level fall

34. Causes of Climate Change Since Deglaciation 21k yrs ago Climate controls: Low CO 2 Large ice sheets 21-6k yrs ago Increasing CO 2 Increasing summer insolation 6-0k yrs ago Decreasing summer insolation High CO 2

35. Stronger, Then Weaker Monsoons High lake levels in the north tropics 9000 years ago

36. Warmer, Then Cooler North Polar Summers Pollen in lake sediments indicates northward large-scale shifts in spruce and oak.

37. Yearly Temperature Change for the Last 2000 Years Data from tree rings, corals, ice cores, and historical records are shown in various colors. Thermometers data in black. Red: recent estimates; Blue: earlier estimates About 1000 y.a., Medieval Warm Period. Certain regions were warmer than others. vineyards flourished and wine was produced. Vikings colonized Iceland and Greenland. About 1000 y.a., Medieval Warm Period. Certain regions were warmer than others. Warm and dry summers in England (1000-1300): vineyards flourished and wine was produced. Vikings colonized Iceland and Greenland. Global Warming http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/1000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png

38. Yearly Temperature Change Since 1850 Data from thermometers 1998 http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png

39. The Earth’s Climate History 1.Over the last century, the earth’s surface temperature has increased by about 0.75°C (about 1.35°F). 2.Little Ice Age = Cooling during 1,400 A.D. – 1,900 A.D. (N.H. temperature was lower by 0.5°C, alpine glaciers increased; few sunspots, low solar output) 3.Medieval Climate Optimum (Warm Period) = Warming during 1,000 A.D. – 1,300 A.D. in Europe and the high-latitudes of North Atlantic (N.H. warm and dry, Nordic people or Vikings colonized Iceland & Greenland) 4.Holocene Maximum = 5,000-6,000 ybp (1°C warmer than now, warmest of the current interglacial period) 5.Younger-Dryas Event = 12,000 ybp (sudden drop in temperature and portions of N.H. reverted back to glacial conditions) 6.Last Glacial Maximum = 21,000 ybp (maximum North American continental glaciers, lower sea level exposed Bering land bridge allowing human migration from Asia to North America) 7.We are presently living in a long-term Icehouse climate period, which is comprised of shorter-term glacial (e.g., 21,000 ybp) and interglacial (e.g., today) periods. There were four periods of Icehouse prior to the current one. 8.For most of the earth’s history, the climate was much warmer than today.